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Posted at 7:20 PM ET, 12/ 9/2008

PM Update: Warm & Wet Wednesday. Then What?

By Ian Livingston

Mild temperatures, chance of showers overnight

* What's Causing Snow to Decline Locally? *

Despite overcast skies, temperatures today climbed higher than recently -- and back above average values -- as afternoon highs reached near and just over 50. A fresh south wind gusting over 20 mph at times is helping to kick out the cold air, at least temporarily. Look for partly cloudy skies to continue this evening before a chance of showers overnight.

Tonight: Warm air sticks around as a slight chance of a passing shower this evening turns into a 50% chance of showers after midnight. Temperatures won't fall much from today's highs, and may in fact rise before the sun does -- lows in the 40s should do it for just about everyone. Warm and moist winds from the south continue around 15-20 mph.

Tomorrow: Day two of our mini warm-up will be a wet one. By sunrise, a more solid area of rain should be advancing on (or entering) the area, and the risk of rain lasts most of the day in the form of occasional showers and thundershowers. Highs should top out in the low-to-mid 60s as a gusty wind from the south continues. There may be a brief break in the action tomorrow evening and overnight, but the first stages of the next system appear to be right on the heels of this one.

Late-week Storm: The tricky and ever-shifting late-week storm seems to want to arrive by Thursday again as opposed to being pushed back to Friday. Unfortunately for snow lovers, recent model trends with this storm are more wet (and it could be very wet) than white in the immediate area, as low pressure is now slated to move up the coast on an inland track instead of offshore. This is still an evolving situation that can change, so stay tuned.

See Matt Rogers' forecast through the weekend.

By Ian Livingston  | December 9, 2008; 7:20 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Forecast: Mild Showers, Then Cold Rain


Snow fans: just pretend the 18Z NAM and GFS never happened.

Posted by: KBurchfiel | December 9, 2008 5:59 PM | Report abuse

This seems to be a threat late week mainly to western areas.

Consensus among the models would reflect a possible threat to the 81 corridor, but more likely to the mts. of WVA who have already been dumped on with nearly 6 feet of snow this season.

Posted by: AugustaJim | December 9, 2008 6:56 PM | Report abuse

I'm going to go appease the snow gods; maybe they'll get less angry and the 0Z models will shift the coastal back to the east.

Posted by: Sterlingva | December 9, 2008 7:14 PM | Report abuse

Looks bleak 4 any signifcant snow 4 the next 7-8 days. Really hard 2 get any big snows the 1st 1/2 of Dec. in this area.

Posted by: VaTechBob | December 9, 2008 7:47 PM | Report abuse

Temp has risen four degrees at Reagan in the last hour. Here comes the front.

Posted by: KBurchfiel | December 9, 2008 9:22 PM | Report abuse

The NAM has shifted a bit east, and I think it shows a little Snow on Friday as the low moves away

Posted by: Snowman_In_Herndon | December 9, 2008 9:42 PM | Report abuse

NWS says wintry mix thursday night and then turning into snow showers. Any truth to this?

Posted by: PeterBethesda | December 9, 2008 9:52 PM | Report abuse


1/2 half of December? how about winter as a whole?

Posted by: wecndo | December 9, 2008 10:23 PM | Report abuse

Jim in Blacksburg here:

I am moving back up to Alexandria - I moved my stuff last weekend, and I am coming up myself Thursday or Friday. I'm wondering, given the storm, when the best time to travel will be. My choices are:

Thursday afternoon, around 2pm.
Thursday night, say, around 7 or 8pm.
Friday morning, around 8 or 9am.


Posted by: jahutch | December 9, 2008 11:01 PM | Report abuse

Teeny bit of drizzle while I was walking around about an hour ago. I was warm in my fleece.

Posted by: LaurainNWDC | December 9, 2008 11:01 PM | Report abuse

NAM did shift east a bit... enough to keep things interesting, maybe. Models have been predicting some backlash/commahead snow on the tail of the system all along and in various runs it still passes over i-95. GFS still pretty "warm".

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 9, 2008 11:26 PM | Report abuse

Jim--is this a permanent move? Welcome to the world of rain/snow lines and blowtorch winters. (Though judging from your posts last year, Blacksburg hasn't exactly been a snow globe itself in the last few years.)

Posted by: KBurchfiel | December 10, 2008 12:42 AM | Report abuse

Yeah, permanent move. I love it down here, especially having gone to Tech for undergrad, but its not the best place socially for a young professional. And almost all my family is up in NOVA, hence the move.

I will miss the weather here though. Summers are decidedly cooler than DC. Winters though are often as frustrating as DC - we have a higher average than DC thanks to elevation, but not that much higher than say IAD. And snow is still primarily storm driven here, and therefore somewhat hit and miss. What we do get, that I will miss, is frequent conversational snow events. Anytime there are NW winds, and upslope snows, we are close enough to the Allegheny Front to get a few snow showers that make it over the mountains. Seldom much accumulation, but still nice to see.

Overall though, I'm looking forward to moving - a change will be nice, and it will certainly be an adventure!

Posted by: jahutch | December 10, 2008 9:40 AM | Report abuse

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