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Posted at 5:15 PM ET, 12/10/2008

PM Update: Bye Bye Warmth, Hello Storm #2

By Ian Livingston

Cold rain arrives Thursday, ending as snow?

* The Science and Wonder of Snowflakes | Radar & More: Weather Wall *

Spotty showers today have been accompanied by near-record warmth in the low-to-mid 60s. Additional showers are possible this evening ahead of an approaching cold front, but rainfall amounts should generally be light where rain occurs. Winds will gust from the south prior to the front's arrival.

Tonight: A chance of showers continues as the cold front passes through this evening and then stalls just to our south. Rain may become steadier sometime between midnight and sunrise as the center of the next storm -- currently emerging from the Gulf of Mexico -- gets closer. Behind the front, winds from the north will drop overnight temperatures through the 40s.

Tomorrow: Thursday should feature heavier and more consistent rain compared to today, with many locations getting close to 1" (and some places more). It'll be much colder as well, with temperatures mostly steady in the upper 30s and low 40s, and winds from the north around 10 mph.

Tomorrow Night: By Thursday evening, areas north and west of D.C. may begin mixing with sleet, but surface temperatures should remain above freezing. Icing of roads due to sleet and possibly freezing rain should be restricted to areas far to the north and west, such as northern Frederick and northern Loudoun counties. The whole region could see the precipitation end as some snow toward morning as the storm pulls out.

At this time it appears any snow accumulations would be minor, with the greatest chance being north and west of D.C.

See Dan Stillman's forecast through the weekend.

By Ian Livingston  | December 10, 2008; 5:15 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Snow in Houston and Galveston, Texas

Comments

Fog on the Potomac!

http://tinyurl.com/6naj2j

Posted by: pongr | December 10, 2008 3:52 PM | Report abuse

Do you guys believe that we will get that 1-2 inches of snow on the back-end as the models are showing? It usually doesn't happen around here.

Posted by: Snowman_In_Herndon | December 10, 2008 4:19 PM | Report abuse

Weren't forecasts calling for a lot of rain this afternoon? Looks like all we're going to get is a few sprinkles. This makes two days running I brought my umbrella to work for nothing.

I expect this pattern to hold with every predicted snowstorm this winter: the mountains will just hog all the precip and leave DC with bupkis.

Posted by: HenryFPotter | December 10, 2008 4:35 PM | Report abuse

18Z NAM shows the back end snow again...http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_042l.gif Its been in multiple model runs, i'm starting to believe this is going to happen.

Posted by: Snowman_In_Herndon | December 10, 2008 4:52 PM | Report abuse

Welcome to winter in Washington everybody.

Posted by: wecndo | December 10, 2008 4:53 PM | Report abuse

Snowman_In_Herndon: I think you can judge by our language in the forecast above that we're not ready to commit to that yet. But we're certainly keeping a close eye on the possible scenarios as the storm pulls out late Thursday night into Friday morning.

HenryFPotter: There have been some showers here and there today -- so you were not wrong to bring the umbrella -- but overall not as widespread as we thought they might be. I don't think that'll be the case tomorrow, as you're likely to see some steady rain during the day no matter where you are in the metro area. As for yesterday, our forecasts here didn't call for more than a chance of some sprinkles in the afternoon.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | December 10, 2008 4:56 PM | Report abuse

Snow from the back end of storms very seldom result in more than a dusting in the DC area. Areas farther N & W sometimes get a few inches. Don't see any big snows in the immediate future, 7-9 days out.

Posted by: VaTechBob | December 10, 2008 5:27 PM | Report abuse

LOOOOOL.


3-5 INCHES of snow in Jackson, MS on Thursday? Dang.

Posted by: wecndo | December 10, 2008 5:30 PM | Report abuse

I predict more global warming/climate change hysteria from faux-scientists for the next few years.

That is until the general public figures out that climate scientists are just about as scientific as political or social scientists.

In general, if a curriculum or a job title has the word "science" in it, then it's usually not.

Posted by: HughJassPhD | December 10, 2008 5:40 PM | Report abuse

If all we are looking forward to with this thing is potential wrap-around, I think we can blow out the candle on watching this storm.

Posted by: gfp76 | December 10, 2008 5:41 PM | Report abuse

The storm tomorrow will have plenty of moisture with it, coming in from the south instead of over the mountains.

The upper level low largely responsible for the snow risk in the deep south (already verified in and around Houston TX) is charted to pass over the region after the surface low goes by..

24hr 700mb / 500mb

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_700_024m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_024m.gif

42hr 700mb / 500mb

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_700_042m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_042m.gif

From 24hr --> 42hr it is quickly unraveling into the northern jet, but it looks to survive the journey in some fashion, and pass in a relatively favorable way for someone in the area.

Late tonight and into tomorrow snowfans should root for mod/heavy snow in the deep south.. thundersnow and all. ;-) That's the area which will move this way as it weakens. It's definitely not a typical December upper low, especially in the south -- quite powerful initially.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 10, 2008 6:15 PM | Report abuse

winter storm warning in mississippi, snow in Baton Rouge and Texas, but here in D.C. we'll be lucky if we get a dusting!!

Posted by: samdman95 | December 10, 2008 6:34 PM | Report abuse

pongr, that's a great photo of the river. I meant to say something earlier, but the METAR out of National this evening made me think back to it -- shallow fog, not something you see in a report too often.

SPECI KDCA 110011Z 00000KT 7SM R01/1000VP6000FT MIFG FEW030 OVC085 12/12 A2994 RMK AO2 MIFG NE-SE ON FIELD AND ALONG RIVER

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | December 10, 2008 7:35 PM | Report abuse

"That is until the general public figures out that climate scientists are just about as scientific as political or social scientists."

It's hard not to take offense at that, even if you have no scientific background. Social and political science are based off of human action (which, indeed, is unpredictable and hard to quantify), but climate science is based off thousands of years of weather data, scores of nautical/land-based weather stations and the natural cycles of the earth.

Climatology is just as reputable a practice as any other sort of natural science.

Posted by: KBurchfiel | December 10, 2008 9:30 PM | Report abuse

This was in the most recent LWX discussion as of my posting this comment:

AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE CWFA. THE CHANGE OVER SHOULD HAPPEN FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET BRIEFLY. TEMPERATURES OVER LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND MAY STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE METROPOLITAN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...DURING RUSH HOUR. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL WINTER HEADLINES.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA | December 10, 2008 9:51 PM | Report abuse

After looking at the 00z Nam, I think IAD has a fair shot for 1-2 inches of snow on Friday.

Posted by: Snowman_In_Herndon | December 10, 2008 10:08 PM | Report abuse

weatherdudeVA, what does CWFA mean? Thanks!

Posted by: Yellowboy | December 10, 2008 10:14 PM | Report abuse

CWFA = County Warning and Forecast Area

The CWFA is the area for which the NWS in Sterling issues forecasts, watches and warnings. Here is a link that shows the CWFA for the Sterling office:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/images/lwx-cwa.jpg

Posted by: weatherdudeVA | December 11, 2008 6:10 AM | Report abuse

Judging on the horrible DC area traffic this morning from Ffx to Alx with just rain falling, I'm not looking forward to my commute tomorrow. Especially if a single white flake falls, causing mass "OMGITSSNOWINGWHATDOIDOBRAKE!!!!BRAKE!!!!!!" reactions in DC metro drivers. I'm banking on some horribly icy conditions tomorrow so I can skip it all and have a "work from home" day.

Posted by: MasonPatriot1 | December 11, 2008 10:20 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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