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Posted at 12:05 PM ET, 12/11/2008

Update: Heavy Rain on the Way; Morning Dusting?

By Dan Stillman

* Full Forecast | Traffic | Radar, Temps & More: Weather Wall *

A Flood Watch remains in effect through tonight as we reach the midway point of a raw and so far showery day in D.C. and vicinity, with the heaviest rain on its way for mid-afternoon through late tonight. That should make for a lovely commute home.

The chance of all this ending as some sleet and lightly accumulating wet snow early Friday morning (let's say in the 5-9 a.m. range) is just that -- a chance. A quick dusting seems to be the most that folks would see inside the Beltway, but odds of even that aren't better than about 40%. Chances that it'll be cold enough for accumulation increase heading north and west into Montgomery and Fairfax counties, and even more so for Frederick and Loudoun counties, but the precipitation may be mostly finished before the cold-enough air arrives there.

With the back side of this storm producing snow in southeast Texas last night, and now in New Orleans for the first time since Christmas Day 2004, a comment left by kalleh on our full forecast post summed up the feeling of some (but by no means all) around the D.C. area: This is such a waste of perfectly good precipitation. Rain is for spring. Snow is for winter. Get it right, DC.

By Dan Stillman  | December 11, 2008; 12:05 PM ET
Categories:  Updates  
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Next: PM Update: Drenching Drive Home. Any Snow?


Of course, AccuWeather's Henry Margusity (the hype darling of East Coast meteorology) is peppering his Friday morning video and web forecasts for the I-95 corridor cities with his usual hyperbole earlier today ("snowbursts!" "wrap-around snows!"). Most of us have accepted it, and I wish HE finally would. Repeat after me, Henry - a mostly RAIN event, a mostly RAIN event, a mostly...

Posted by: VAStateOfMind | December 11, 2008 1:12 PM | Report abuse

VAStateOfMind, Henry has stated all along that this is rain storm in the I-95 cities. He may say "burst of snow", but he also says there might be a "coating to an inch" He not calling for a blizzard. His forecast is not out of line with most forecast. I am tired people SELECTIVELY READING AND THEN CRITICIZING.

Posted by: mciaram1 | December 11, 2008 2:12 PM | Report abuse

mciaram1, PLEASE. I'm tired of people defending Margusity like he's God's gift to meteorology - we all know good winter storm hype drives viewers to the television and readers to the web sites. The guy started pushing this storm FIVE days ago, and worse, pitching it as a snowstorm for the I-95 corridor cities based solely on his model-gazing. Most of the models paint a cooler picture than what really happens, but Henry jumps on the snow wagon up to a week in advance. He's already talking with giddy anticipation about a western storm that hasn't even HIT the Pacific Coast yet! Only in the last 12 hours has Henry "tempered" his "forecasting" but he's still needlessly painting an end-of-storm snowburst scenario tomorrow morning. His brand of too-far-in-advance wishcasting *IS* way out of line, thanks very much. Kudos to CWG, as usual, for their more conservative and less wishcasting approach....

Posted by: VAStateOfMind | December 11, 2008 2:29 PM | Report abuse

VAStateofMind, Henry is no God, Let's be clear, other outlets not taking a stand is not a forecast. You oversimplify and misrepresent what he said. You are probably one of those people who say winter is over. I recommend that if you don't have something useful or constructive to say, to keep it yourself.

Posted by: mciaram1 | December 11, 2008 2:38 PM | Report abuse

Now now, everyone, play nice. We're all just frustrated to feel as if we came THISCLOSE to our first snowstorm of the winter...but instead it's raining on our parade.

Posted by: --sg | December 11, 2008 2:46 PM | Report abuse

At least we got a tiny bit of snow on Saturday night. Or was it Sunday? Remember peoples, winter hasn't even started. I think it starts on December 21. It's still fall. Ha!

Posted by: Yellowboy | December 11, 2008 2:57 PM | Report abuse

If you believe my critiques of HM's "forecasts" from earlier this week are oversimplified and not flat-out HYPE, then you're even more deluded than I first thought. And since we're clearing the air, are you saying CWG *ISN'T* taking a stand in their forecasting, by referring to other outlets, compared to MARGUSITY??? Winter's not over, but I do believe it's lining up to be one similar to the last 3-4 winters we've had, despite others' seasonal predictions to the contrary. And BTW, many of the comments left here (in this current incarnation of the CWG site, and in the older and much better blog version from past years) don't fall into the "useful or constructive" category and simply boil down to opinion and conjecture -- if that kind of feedback doesn't fit within your neat, black-and-white lines, then you might consider keeping silent yourself...

Posted by: VAStateOfMind | December 11, 2008 2:58 PM | Report abuse

Be nice. You guys are ruining our snow whammy.

Posted by: manassasmissy | December 11, 2008 3:01 PM | Report abuse

I know, sg -- as an "old hand" (at least I think I regcognize your name as an old hand from this site and the previous blog), I think you understand where I'm coming from.

Posted by: VAStateOfMind | December 11, 2008 3:02 PM | Report abuse

You guys do realize that the snowiest month of the season is February, right? We're not even halfway through December right now, and you're already calling this winter a bust? That's a little far-fetched and kind of a bold statement. Just relax.

Posted by: danuva | December 11, 2008 4:35 PM | Report abuse

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