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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 01/25/2009

Forecast: Cold Weather Holds On

By Brian Jackson

Snow accumulation possible Tuesday into Wednesday

* Later: Updated Snow Lover's Crystal Ball *

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Increasing clouds. 33-36. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy, stray flurries? 21-24. | Tomorrow: Gray skies. 34-37. | A Look Ahead

FORECAST IN DETAIL

For 13 of the last 16 days, temperatures have been colder than average. Under increasingly gray skies, we''ll continue that trend over the next several days. The threat of accumulating snow continues for Tuesday and Wednesday, but snow may not be the only type of precipitation to consider.

Temperatures: Current area temperatures. Powered by Weather Bonk. Map by Google. Hover over and click icons for more info. Click and hold on map to pan. Refresh page to update. See map bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Sunday): Sunny skies will dominate the early part of the day but clouds will slowly filter in overhead. We'll stay chilly, with below normal temperatures topping out in the low-to-mid 30s. Light winds will develop out of the west at less than 10 mph. Confidence: High

Tonight: A few snow flurries are possible, especially north and west, as a weak disturbance swings through. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy conditions with lows in the mid-20s downtown, and the upper teens in the colder suburbs. Winds overnight will become calm. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through mid-week...

Tomorrow (Monday): The first in the series of fast moving disturbances passes by tomorrow, doing little more than generating considerable cloud cover. Snow showers will largely be confined to the western slopes of the mountains. Temperatures will again top out in the mid-30s, with winds blowing from the north at less than 10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: It will continue to be mostly cloudy. Western areas may begin to see the onset of some light snow or flurries by morning but most areas should remain dry. Overnight lows will dip into the low-to-mid 20s. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Tuesday presents our best chance of snow accumulation so far this season. Snow will likely (60% chance) develop between the morning and early afternoon as low pressure organizes to our southwest. It will be cold with highs at or below freezing. Overnight, the snow may mix with or change to sleet and freezing rain as milder air moves in aloft. It will remain below freezing at the surface, with lows in the 20s. Confidence: Medium

Ice and/or snow likely ends during the morning Wednesday with slow clearing possible later in the day. It will remain cold, with highs in the mid-30s. Confidence: Low-Medium

A second area of storminess may bring more snow and/or ice to the region Thursday or Friday.

By Brian Jackson  | January 25, 2009; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Potentially Messy Winter Storm Tues & Wed

Comments

We can we expect the updated Snowlover's Crystal Ball?

Posted by: snowlover | January 25, 2009 5:25 AM | Report abuse

Good Morning CWG,

Is it possible to give an estimate of how much ice we will see with this first weather system? I think 2-4 inches of snow is possible out of this event, but how much of the ice? .10 to .15 a good estimation?

Posted by: anti1clint | January 25, 2009 6:25 AM | Report abuse

If it snows will it most likely mean no school on tues, weds. or thurs. or all three?

Posted by: samdman95 | January 25, 2009 7:35 AM | Report abuse

I can't believe how excited I am for a 'moderate' chance event that may produce a couple of inches. I'm just so ready for SNOW!!

Can't wait to see the new crystal ball.

Posted by: adeci1of | January 25, 2009 10:03 AM | Report abuse

Here is a novice crystal ball for this week. For schools they may be closed Wednesday for the first storm as although it will snow around 3-6 inches it will start too late on Tuesday. The second possibly larger storm will start sometime on Friday. If the first storm last long enough and is large enough the schools could be closed Thursday as well.

Posted by: bgor | January 25, 2009 10:13 AM | Report abuse

Folks-- The updated crystal ball should go up between 11:30 and noon.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 25, 2009 10:17 AM | Report abuse

Wow, an active weather pattern AND its cold out! What are the odds? I guess the weather gods are throwing us a bone.

Of course the weather gods are also vengeful and mean spirited, so I wouldn't be surprised if we get a 10 inch rainfall just so we could wonder "how much snow would that have been?".

Posted by: JTF- | January 25, 2009 11:28 AM | Report abuse

12Z gfs run was not a good one IMO. The shifting continues, last night it came south and the 12z today went north. While its the best chance we have seen all year, I would not get excited at all. There are so many things that can go wrong right now. I would say right now 2-4 inches is good. I have heard 3-6 and even 4-8 but I think thats pushing it. I would say a 96% chance we see mixing issues around the area cutting down on snow total.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | January 25, 2009 11:30 AM | Report abuse

Finally: a system promising SOME accumulation--though it comes at a rather inconvenient time when I have some library books due Wednesday that I can't renew online & need to "drag in" to the Library!!! [This ALWAYS happens; it holds up until it's at its MOST INCONVENIENT for me!!! Whenever I have an important errand, a big dance or a 'must-do' appointment, the weather starts interfering with my public transportation! Meanwhile whenever I can afford some weather excitement, all we get are these boring old dry sunny spells and that boring ol' cold rain!]

In addition to the need for lugging around my libary books, a big snow Tuesday evening figures to interfere with the scheduled Clarendon Ballroom swing dance. However the Monday night dance at the Chevy Chase Ballroom still looks okay. With more dances at my disposal, it's easier for me to pick and choose in accordance with weather conditions. Unfortunately wintry weather too often does a big number on Metro, Metrobus and regional bus lines like ART.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | January 25, 2009 11:36 AM | Report abuse

Clintonportis is correct. The 12z GFS is pretty much a disaster. Its taken away the overrunning event entirely, and merged it into the big storm that was supposed to come after the overrunning, making one big Apps Runner. As currently modeled, it basically shows a 2-4 then washout scenario.

IF this "one storm" solution is correct, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the north trend continue and to see most of the metro with a cold rain only event. The models had been showing an overrunning event followed by a big storm. We were never in the game for the big storm, so if the overrunning has MERGED into the big storm, needless to say its not looking good. That is a BIG IF though, as other modeling continues to show two discrete events.

Posted by: jahutch | January 25, 2009 12:09 PM | Report abuse

Anyone else seen this website for before? Looks like a pretty good layman's way to see the rain/snow line, how heavy the precip will be, etc.:

http://coolwx.com/ptype/

Posted by: JTF- | January 25, 2009 12:09 PM | Report abuse

jahutch: We saw a south trend last night, so do you think it will happen again? We really need it to shift south! Something tells me that the 12z is over doing the warm air and northward track. At the same time this is the Mid Atlantic and we don't get snow here anymore lol so I can see the 12z playing out but I think its to early to say that any one solution is correct. IMO if the 12z Euro follows the gfs then yeah we can forget about it! The rest of today's runs will be huge! For those of you who like seeing watches/warnings, Tonights runs will determin if the NWS issues a watch or waites and issues an advisory.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | January 25, 2009 12:24 PM | Report abuse

Clintonportis -

I am not as interested in the specifics of what the model is saying as I am in the large scale picture the model is presenting.

In this vain, the HUGE change with the 12z is the merger of the two events as I mentioned previously. My view is if it IS one storm, we will not get much. Maybe a bit, but not much, and whatever we do get gets washed away. End of story.

If the 12z is wrong, and there is still a separate overrunning event, we are still in the game.

Posted by: jahutch | January 25, 2009 12:48 PM | Report abuse

jahutch: I agree. Only time will tell. I think tonight and even better tomorrow we will have a decent idea of what is going to happen.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | January 25, 2009 12:57 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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