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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 01/ 1/2009

Forecast: Out With the Wind, In With the New Year

By Dan Stillman

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Cold. Less Windy. Partly to mostly sunny. Mid-to-upper 30s. | Tonight: Increasing clouds. Low-to-mid 20s. | Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy. 30-40% chance of rain or snow showers. Low 40s. | A Look Ahead

FORECAST IN DETAIL

A stiff breeze we can deal with. An occasionally gusty wind -- tolerable. But yesterday? Well, that was just ridiculous. Wild winds -- gusting over 50 mph at times -- wreaked havoc across the area on the last day of 2008, killing at least one person and seriously injuring another. 2009 opens on a kinder, gentler note with a lot less wind, but still cold.

Temperatures: Current area temperatures. Powered by Weather Bonk. Map by Google. Hover over and click icons for more info. Click and hold on map to pan. Refresh page to update. See map bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (New Year's Day): It may still be a bit breezy during the morning, but eventually winds should settle down to around 10 mph or less. Temperatures, however, remain rather cold today with highs in the mid-to-upper 30s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Confidence: High

Tonight: Increasing clouds with lows in the mid 20s downtown, low 20s in the burbs. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Friday): The edge comes off of the cold just a bit with highs in the low 40s. Mostly cloudy skies could yield a few rain or snow showers (30-40% chance) as the center of a weak storm system passes to our north. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Slight chance of a snow or rain shower early, then clearing skies and becoming breezy overnight with lows in the 20s. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Mostly sunny Saturday as temperatures stay status quo -- highs in the low 40s. Confidence: Medium-High

The Sunday forecast continues to be uncertain, but there's at least a chance that increasing clouds during the day could produce some rain showers. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Confidence: Low-Medium

Shower chances could continue into early Monday followed by clearing skies and highs in the 40s. Monday night and Tuesday is looking like the window for our next threat of wintry weather. But it's way too early to say what, if anything, will happen. Confidence: Low

By Dan Stillman  | January 1, 2009; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

Happy New Year to all at CWG, and to the many posters on here that now feel like friends.

Posted by: Etta- | January 1, 2009 10:04 AM | Report abuse

Happy 2009 CWG!

So...any chance of the SLCB?

Kim in Manassas

Posted by: ksrgatorfn1 | January 1, 2009 10:09 AM | Report abuse

Looks like the snowy solution for Tuesday is once again switching to a wetter solution and track. The NWS even said they may have to post Flood Watches for Tuesday!!!! My concern is for a possible Ice Storm. I know the storm is several days out but I would be curious to hear the initial thoughts of the CWG.

Happy New Year!

Posted by: GregRAINMAN | January 1, 2009 10:15 AM | Report abuse

The early-week storm continues to trend warmer on computer guidance. We have entered back into a La Nina (post from last year touches on what that can do). We can get wintry weather if it sticks around, but it's typically fairly unfavorable for a whole lot of snow in this area.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 1, 2009 12:03 PM | Report abuse

Folks:
The negative NAO pattern that we are witnessing should favor a Winter Storm next Tuesday....BUT.... The strong forcing from the Pacific ( -PNA) is overwhelming the Atlantic signal (-NAO). A negative PNA is not to be denied as a significant forcing factor.

The PNA has been negative for nearly a month, but forecast to move to a positive condition during the next 10 days as the NAO moves toward neutral.

This should favor a trough and cold pattern over the eastern U.S., that would result in at least some snow before the 15th.

Happy New Year to everyone including the CWG !!

Posted by: AugustaJim | January 1, 2009 2:03 PM | Report abuse

Ian:

I know some ENSO regions are trending colder but aren't some still above normal? The stuff I've seen suggests the Nina is, at this point, weak at best. Sure, it may strengthen, but we are already into January, so I think its effect on this winter will be limited. I suspect its effect will be felt more come spring and summer.

Now, it can be said we are still seeing a Nina like storm track, but I would suggest that is the result of atmospheric lag from the recently-ended raging strong Nina, not an effect from this newly developing one.

Posted by: jahutch | January 1, 2009 3:20 PM | Report abuse

Good post AugustaJim.

This is from DT at weather Risk! and is very true.

have seen the 850 mnb maps of the 12z THURSDAY euro and they are plenty cold enough even for DCA.

FOLKS the Key to the Jan 7 and 10-11 event is ... and lways was... the PV in Yukon / Alaska

YOU cannot get SECS HECS MECS event in the Northeast -- except maybe for northern New England-- while you have that good awful huge deep PV over Alaska and the Yukon.

cannot.
No exceptions.
end of conversation

Even with a Block over Greenland.

The reasoning has NOT changed: a PV over that area TELECONENCTS to a SE ridge... so any short wave and surface Low coming out of the SW/ Lower Plains / Delta HAS to track OVER the se ridge . All the Greenland block is doing right now is keeping the se ridge in check.

if the greenland Block was not there the SE RIDGE would be huge and Chuck's Jan forecast would be going like Ganngbusters.

SOLUTION hope the PV in alaska and Yukon gets out of there by jan 7 whren he OHIO valley
Low passes through.

IF it does ..IF.... then jan 11 event threat is real.... OInce the PV leaves the Data clearly shwos a ridge forming on the West coast... and that sends in more cold air... kciks out the se ridge .... and allows the Jan 11 system to track much futher east and hence the snow threat

Ya Follow?

If it does NOT leave... then the Jan 11 event will also track WAAAAAAAY inland...ie an Ohio valley track

Posted by: clintonportis17 | January 1, 2009 3:30 PM | Report abuse

Latest guidance makes me increasingly concerned about a possible overrunning cad event next Tuesday.

We may witness significant icing for elevated surfaces, in especially the western areas on Tuesday. The 850mb temps will be too warm for snow, but surface temps. will be borderline.

The cold pattern during the next 15 days that I referred to earlier today is on track.

Jan. 5 - 20 should average well below normal.

Posted by: AugustaJim | January 1, 2009 6:09 PM | Report abuse

Happy New Year, all! So tomorrow's event is a nonevent? Full speed ahead to next week?

Posted by: weathergrrl | January 1, 2009 6:29 PM | Report abuse

I just heard announced on the radio twice, on WAMU 88.5, that the NWS has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for metro DC until 7:00pm. I can't find this Watch on any NWS website. Even worse, I'm out of chocolate.

Am I losing my mind on the first day of the New Year, or is there really a Severe Thunderstorm Watch right now?

Posted by: --sg | January 1, 2009 6:34 PM | Report abuse

Sg- A little common sense would have been nice! and there is NO STW.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | January 1, 2009 6:52 PM | Report abuse

@clintonportis: Had it been only one announcement, I'd have blamed myself for hallucinating sevwx since we don't get any snow. The announcement was given a third time before I shut off the radio, so I knew I wasn't hearing things...

Posted by: --sg | January 1, 2009 7:50 PM | Report abuse

Where are you located at!? I would say someone at that radio station needs to be fired!

Posted by: clintonportis17 | January 1, 2009 8:21 PM | Report abuse

I'm in the Merrifield area of NoVA. Not a half hour before I heard that crazy announcement, I had been outside counting stars.

Posted by: --sg | January 1, 2009 9:02 PM | Report abuse

Yeah to bad it wasent a winter storm watch! lol My current thinking for Tuesday will be rain. If this keeps up will be lucky to get 3 inches this year.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | January 1, 2009 10:34 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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