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Posted at 1:45 PM ET, 01/24/2009

Forecast: The Return of the Cold

By Jason Samenow

Snow Lover's Crystal Ball: Snow chance for next week

* Inauguration Weather: How Cold Was It? and Contrails in the Sky *

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Variably cloudy. Chilly & breezy. 40-44. | Tonight: Mostly clear. 19-23. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny, cold. 32-36 | A Look Ahead

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Our reprieve from the cold yesterday was just a tease as below average temperatures trickle in once more. After we touch 40 today, afternoon highs will not escape the 30s for at least several days starting tomorrow. Any maybe, just maybe, some snow will accompany the cold air during the early to middle part of next week.

Temperatures: Current area temperatures. Powered by Weather Bonk. Map by Google. Hover over and click icons for more info. Click and hold on map to pan. Refresh page to update. See map bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Saturday): Winds from the north (around 15 mph with higher gusts) follow the passage of last night's cold front, dropping temperatures about 10+ degrees compared to yesterday (when highs reached the low-to-mid 50s). Skies will range from partly to mostly cloudy, with highs in the low 40s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Skies should gradually clear and cold air will continue pouring into the region, making for quite a cold night. Lows will drop down to near 20 in the city, with teens in the suburbs. A light wind from the north at 5-10 mph will add to the chill. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast into early next week.

Tomorrow (Sunday): Canadian high pressure will be parked over the region, resulting in cold temperatures despite a good deal of sunshine. High temperatures will only reach the low-to-mid 30s with light winds. Confidence: High

Tomorrow Night: A weak disturbance will pass through the area, probably increasing cloud cover towards morning and possibly producing a few snow flurries. It will be cold, with lows 19-24 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

On Monday, there should be considerable cloud cover, but also intervals of sunshine. It will remain cold, with highs in the mid-30s. Overnight, clouds may lower and thicken, with a 25% chance of light snow by morning. Lows will probably drop to the low-to-mid 20s. Confidence: Medium

Let's call for a 50% chance of snow Tuesday, as the next disturbance passes by just to our south. It will remain cold, with highs in the low 30s. Confidence: Medium

See our Snow Lover's Crystal Ball for more details on next week's snow potential.

By Jason Samenow  | January 24, 2009; 1:45 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Forecast: Cold Weather Holds On

Comments

The 06z GFS has really turned "bullish" on the potential for Tue - Thur. It now blasts much of the D.C. area with 5-10 inches of snow. Other models are lighter.

This is only one run and probably won't stand the test of time, but it is quite interesting.

Posted by: AugustaJim | January 24, 2009 8:00 AM | Report abuse

Is anyone else having trouble getting LWX forecasts and forecast discussions to load?

Posted by: bjackrian | January 24, 2009 8:33 AM | Report abuse

AugustaJim: I have a feeling that maybe last night 00z of the GFS will be right. Its just not our year for it, and why would that change now. The 00Z run gave us flurries if that, so we should all pray that the 06z pans out!!!

Posted by: clintonportis17 | January 24, 2009 8:42 AM | Report abuse

Can someone please provide me a link to the 06z GFS so that I can try and read and understand it? Thanks!

Posted by: snowlover | January 24, 2009 9:28 AM | Report abuse

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/model_m.shtml
Go to town! Basically, it's like your regular weather map you'd see on television, but way less user friendly, and with many more details. If you're looking for snowfall, I'd recomend looking at the MSLP 1000 - 500mb. Basically, and with a large margin of error, if there's precip where the lines are blue, its snowing, red lines, raining.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2009 10:14 AM | Report abuse

Augusta Jim:

Is this what you're seeing?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_096m.gif

Now THAT would be nice.

Posted by: Sterlingva | January 24, 2009 11:07 AM | Report abuse

Snowing heavily in Clarksburg MD! What a nice sight!

Posted by: GrassHouse | January 24, 2009 11:13 AM | Report abuse

Snowing in loudoun - a dusting already!? It's not supposed to snow today!

Posted by: rumbly45 | January 24, 2009 11:34 AM | Report abuse

Snowing in Sterling...nothing sticking yet.

Posted by: kridgely | January 24, 2009 11:48 AM | Report abuse

Snow flurries/showers off and on here in Middle River, MD.

Posted by: CarolinaMike | January 24, 2009 12:32 PM | Report abuse

Please see my earlier post. The question is: will the cold air hold around here long enough to give us a good snow middle of next week?

Unfortunately, the ECMWF seems to have been more accurate than the GFS so far this winter and the "Euro" has been rather parsimonious in giving us more than a few inconsequential flurries/squalls to date.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | January 24, 2009 1:03 PM | Report abuse

No snow...it's sunny here [Baileys Crossroads]...but I've heard reports from as close as Merrifield, indicating flurries earlier today.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | January 24, 2009 1:11 PM | Report abuse

The 12z GFS looks awesome for next week

Posted by: gfp76 | January 24, 2009 1:13 PM | Report abuse

Sunny in Silver Spring. But I am jealous of those in NoVa who got that small burst of snow.. it appears to be evaporating in the atmosphere now though. Still a few spots of snow, but nothing widespread!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2009 1:16 PM | Report abuse

Made some adjustments to the accumulation potential in the Snow Lover's Crystal Ball post (our detailed look at the snow potential for this coming week) based on the latest data. Was tempted to make more dramatic changes considering how bullish this morning's GFS model runs were, but restraint is probably wise at least until we see a couple more model runs.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | January 24, 2009 2:43 PM | Report abuse

Why do I get the feeling that were are going to get shafted AGAIN with this snow potential!? Or maybe...just maybe we get a really big surprise!! Lets all pull for todays 12z GFS run.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | January 24, 2009 3:32 PM | Report abuse

Northern shift continues on the 18z gfs run. not sure if thats good or bad? I do know that the shift north as to stop now! Any further I think you can forget it.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | January 24, 2009 6:12 PM | Report abuse

Here are my thoughts regarding the snow potential for next week:

1) The trend continues to show a Northern track and that is a very bad sign for us giving the heaviest bands of snow and cold around the Mason Dixon Line north.

2) Expect a snow to quick rain changeover for the immediate Metro area with a dusting to maybe an inch.

3) Western Suburbs may get that quick inch or two followed up by a sleet/ freezing rain to rain mix.

4) Temps will slowly rise throughout the event.

Again....MAINLY RAIN folks!

RAINMAN GREG!

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | January 24, 2009 6:47 PM | Report abuse

At this point I just don't see a big snow, more liquid than frozen. Models more than 48 hrs. r fairly useless, now if they start to show snow 36 hrs or less, then things could get interseting.

Posted by: VaTechBob | January 24, 2009 9:29 PM | Report abuse

It seems the 00zgfs was a pretty nice run overall! Can we keep it going? Stinkerflat1 and VaTechBob, I don't know where your getting mostly rain from? Am I not looking at something right?

Posted by: clintonportis17 | January 24, 2009 11:06 PM | Report abuse

Clintonportis -

They are just in the "I'll believe its going to snow when I see the flakes" crowd. I can certainly understand that approach, particularly given recent years, but obviously its pretty unscientific and is bound to fail at some point.

That being said, VaTechBob makes a good point in that models don't start to really lock in on a "final solution" for winter storms until 48 hours or so before. Nonetheless, I think its a very good sign that the northward trend seems to have halted on the 0z. In fact, it was a bit further south than the 18z. 18z had DC right on the edge. Does that mean the rush north won't start up again - no - but its a good sign. I'm pretty interested what the 0z EURO will show tonight, since it has been the furthest north of late (we at easternuswx call it "Dr. No" for a reason). Ideally it would come south a bit. If its as it was, or worse, further north, that MAY suggest the GFS will pick back up its northward trend as well.

Interesting setup - I'm pretty optimistic we'll see at least something measurable from this. How much, who knows.

Posted by: jahutch | January 25, 2009 12:42 AM | Report abuse

Any update from the CWG or forum members on the possible snow event on Tuesday? Thx.

Posted by: snowlover | January 25, 2009 4:59 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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