InaugurationCast: T-Minus Two Weeks
Testing the limits of long-range forecasts
* Rain Tapers This Afternoon: Full Forecast | Later: Snow Poems *
What's better than one Inauguration forecast? How 'bout two? Through Jan. 13, CWG's chief and lead meteorologists -- Jason Samenow and Dan Stillman, respectively -- will provide dueling forecasts for Jan. 20, Inauguration Day. Starting Jan. 14, we'll shift to a single CWG team forecast, in hopes of more confidently honing in on the forecast details. Check back daily for our latest thinking, a look at past inaugural weather, and a sampling of what you, our readers, are predicting.
So here we are, just under two weeks from the big day -- nowhere close to having confidence in what the day's weather will be. But we might as well have some fun guessing. Keep reading for Jason and Dan's latest forecasts, two new reader predictions, and more inauguration weather history...
I'm sticking with my previous forecast for the time being.
The real question is whether the ridge in the jet stream in the West forecast by long-range models to develop will hold. If it holds, we'll have a dip in the jet stream over the East that will likely bring us colder than average weather. If it breaks down, we'll have more moderate conditions with Pacific rather than Canadian air. I'm betting on the colder scenario -- but it's a close call.
Storminess remains nearly impossible to predict this far out, but my gut feeling suggests there will be some storminess within a day or so of the inauguration that will add a wrinkle to the forecast.
The Bottom Line...
The extended range indicators are leaning toward temperatures slightly below normal around Inauguration Day. I'm not ready to go full force in that direction, but am bumping my forecast down a couple degrees.
Also, I don't see anything in the data to justify changing my initial stab of a 30% chance of rain, with frozen precipitation staying north and west of D.C.
As I expected, the atmospheric index known as the NAO is forecast to be in the positive range, which as Jason recently explained tends to limit snow. So, I'll stick with my call against a big winter storm.
The Bottom Line...
Posted by stinkerflat1
Partly Cloudy with a risk for afternoon and evening showers possible ending as a brief mix. Morning Temps: 38-44 degrees. Afternoon High: 52-55 degrees.
Posted by spa1
Morning Temps-40s and 50s. Swearing in-a whopping 65 degrees amidst Sunshine and Blue skies!!!! Afternoon High-a Toasty 70 degrees-the record high from 1951 for Jan. 20.
Note: If you want your Inauguration forecast featured here in one of the coming days, summarize your prediction in a comment below.
WEATHER OF INAUGURATIONS PAST
Eisenhower, 1953: Noon Temp: 49F. Cloudy skies.
Eisenhower, 1957: Noon Temp: 44F. Jan. 21: Light snow in the early morning. Cloudy skies with a few flurries in the mid afternoon.
Capital Weather Gang
| January 7, 2009; 10:45 AM ET
Categories: Inauguration, Inauguration Forecasts | Tags: dc weather inauguration, inaugural weather, inauguration forecast, inauguration weather, inauguration weather forecast, weather inauguration
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