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Posted at 3:15 PM ET, 01/ 6/2009

PM Update: A Few Slick Spots Through Evening

By Ian Livingston

Ice threat wanes overnight, rain continues heavy at times

Winter Weather Advisory in effect through 9 a.m. tomorrow N&W of D.C. (includes Loudoun, Montgomery, Howard and Fauquier counties and points N&W)

Cold and wet conditions have predominated today, with some icing noted north and west of D.C. By and large, this has been a rain event for most people. Those out near Ashburn, Leesburg, Gaithersburg, and Germantown as well as points north or west have been hovering at or below freezing most of the day which has allowed for light ice accretion on elevated objects and even some slick spots on roadways.

As we head toward and past sunset, additional precipitation will enter the area and some locations north and west could see ice form more easily on roadways before temperatures begin rising tonight. Use extra caution over the next several hours if driving north and west of D.C.

*** Winter Weather Center ***
Closings/Delays | Traffic | Metro | Flights | Amtrak | OPM | Roads: DC/MD/VA
Radar: Latest regional radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update.
Temperatures: Hover over and click icons for more info. Click and hold on map to pan. Powered by Weather Bonk. Map by Google. Refresh page to update.
View/Submit Photos | Ultimate Overview of Current Conditions: Weather Wall

Tonight: If you are not seeing icing this evening, do not expect it overnight. And even if you are seeing icing, it should come to an end as temperatures warm above freezing in most if not all area locations. Rain may be heavy at times overnight, with .50"-1.00"+ possible across the area. Morning lows will range from the mid-to-upper 30s.

Tomorrow: Rain will be a pretty good bet Wednesday morning before we trend toward scattered showers during the afternoon. Temperatures will rise higher than today with readings topping out in the low-to-mid 40s across the area. Clouds should persist into the evening as a sometimes gusty west wind kicks into gear behind a cold front.

See Matt Roger's forecast through the weekend.

By Ian Livingston  | January 6, 2009; 3:15 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Forecast: A Wet Wednesday; Snow Still a No-Show

Comments

Can this winter get anymore boring!
Channel 9 now has 40 and rain on tuesday. I'am firmly believing that we may have a snowless winter. With that said! bring on summer.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | January 6, 2009 3:55 PM | Report abuse

clintonportis17: I disallow this winter to be snowless. There's a good chance that I won't see snow for a very VERY long time after this winter, so it had better snow at least once or else. But like some said in the previous CWG posts, it's still January 6th. We have alllllllll winter.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA | January 6, 2009 4:10 PM | Report abuse

I agree--enough of winter already...

Posted by: steske | January 6, 2009 4:10 PM | Report abuse

Temp hovering right around 33 degrees here in downtown Silver Spring (GA Ave).
I'm hoping for at least one decent snow storm (maybe 5+ inches) before winter ends.

Posted by: ishq | January 6, 2009 4:17 PM | Report abuse

The new Euro is a little further south with a clipper this weekend. Still too far north, but it had trended south a bit each run, so there's some hope for this system. Wouldn't be much in any event, but maybe something. The new Euro also advertises some SERIOUS cold coming in.

I maintain my position that the 10th - about the 25th may be a period where we can get some snow.

Weatherdude:

Why aren't you going to see much snow after this? Going to college somewhere way too hot? :P

Posted by: jahutch | January 6, 2009 4:17 PM | Report abuse

I'm starting to fear you are correct clintonportis17. Yes, it's only Jan 6 but usually we've at least seen a little bit of snow by now. Aside from some flurries coming down but not sticking and then being gone within 20 minutes we've had nothing.

I fear that does not bode well.

Posted by: kallieh | January 6, 2009 5:02 PM | Report abuse

Weatherdude: I don't like it anymore then you do but we as snowlovers can't continue to fight the pattern just b/c we want snow. I would love more then anything is to get about 6inches, I mean I have forgotten what that even looks like lol. Tuesday is our next chance of "wintery" precip and those arent all that good right now so the best thing to do is just pray!

Posted by: clintonportis17 | January 6, 2009 5:11 PM | Report abuse

There's a good chance that I'll be seeing heaps of snow in the next few winters (seeing as I only applied to 'snowy' schools).

But as for seeing snow here, which would be a blessing (for me, at least): keep watch on the 13th and 17th of next week. There's a chance for snow on both of those days, according to the GFS model.

Posted by: KBurchfiel | January 6, 2009 5:14 PM | Report abuse

kallieh: its just the overall pattern that does not bode well for snow for our area. Like I said tuesday is our next shot and those chances arent even all that good IMO.
The 06z GFS came in pretty good I think for Frozen precip but then the recent 12z came in warmer. By looking at it RIGHT NOW it almost looks idenitcal to todays storm.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | January 6, 2009 5:19 PM | Report abuse

Maybe a chance for a stray snowflake west and north of the area tomorrow afternoon as this system finally moves out?

And I guess it isn't all bad... As a wise man once said : "We need the rain."

Posted by: JJones-CapitalWeatherGang | January 6, 2009 5:22 PM | Report abuse

By looking at it RIGHT NOW it almost looks idenitcal to todays storm.

Oh boy! *sarcasm*

I'm about to give all of my winter/snow gear to goodwill, that's how disheartened I feel. I've barely even had to wear a coat this "winter."

Posted by: kallieh | January 6, 2009 5:25 PM | Report abuse

JJones-CapitalWeatherGang: we do need the rain but a cold rain in January is very depressing to say the least.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | January 6, 2009 5:26 PM | Report abuse

On another note: Temp here in culpeper is 33.3 degrees. slowly falling so maybe we'll see a little more ice before the warm up.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | January 6, 2009 5:31 PM | Report abuse

Rain, rain, go away,
Please bring snow to me some day,
If you don't, I will cry,
I will move and say goodbye!

Posted by: Yellowboy | January 6, 2009 5:44 PM | Report abuse

Lots of weenie posts here. Here's a little statistical analysis. I used 31 winters beginning with winter 1977-1978 and ending with winter 2007-2008.

All numbers are from DCA.

The average snowfall was approx 15.5" for the period as a whole.

This winter, a TRACE of snow was officially recorded in both November and December. I looked at the period of record, and have listed out those winters which included either a TRACE or 0.0 snow in both NOV and DEC. Here is each of the year, with the total snow recorded for the winter as a whole:

1979-1980 -- 20.1"
1986-1987 -- 31.1"
1991-1992 -- 6.6"
1994-1995 -- 10.1"
1999-2000 -- 15.4"
2001-2002 -- 3.2"
2006-2007 -- 9.5"

So, from this chart we can see that a snowless November and December does NOT say much about the winter as a whole. Of the winters above, 1 was average for the period, 2 were above, and 3 were below. This is fairly consistent with DC snow climatology in general. Only 2 of the 7 winters, 01-02 and 91-92, would I consider "abysmal."

Yes, the average of these winters is below the average for the period as a whole (13.7" vs. 15.5"). And yes, it will be difficult for us to get a blockbuster winter given the blanks we've received so far.

HOWEVER, it is still entirely possibly we could eke out a decent winter, maybe even an average or above average winter. Nerves are frayed from the past two years, but we need to look at the pattern going forward, not use "it didn't snow yet, so that bodes poorly, winter cancel" logic.

FACT IS, it does NOT snow much here until early January most years. 15 of the 31 winters in my data set featured LESS THAN 0.5" OF SNOW BEFORE JANUARY.

So, all snow weenies need to step back from the edge. There's a lot of winter left.

Posted by: jahutch | January 6, 2009 5:44 PM | Report abuse

where is the weatherunderground radar link?wait dont tell me, gone, replaced with that other useless radar a few months ago.

Posted by: deveinmadisonva | January 6, 2009 5:54 PM | Report abuse

I will make a bet with anybody here that we will not get 1 inch of snow this season.

Posted by: hikeguy23 | January 6, 2009 6:03 PM | Report abuse

Hikeguy -

Were I not presently employed as a professional job searcher, I'd gladly take that bet. In a heartbeat. :)

Posted by: jahutch | January 6, 2009 6:24 PM | Report abuse

jahutch: I dont think you can say we may eke out and above average season. I will say again, the pattern is not right for snow! The rest of january will probadly with my current guess, no more then 2 inches in any one location. There is nothing in the overall pattern that suggest we'll see any snow producing storms. the two most important being storm track, and now La Nina is making a come back. This is all IMO and I will stand by it until i see other wise.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | January 6, 2009 6:28 PM | Report abuse

Folks, there is a huge event with lots of people scheduled to be outdoors and most likely lots of mentions of Global Warming coming on January 20. That is too good of a chance for the snow gods to pass up. Lots of snow, or possibly an ice storm for the Inauguration.

Posted by: epjd | January 6, 2009 6:40 PM | Report abuse

oh my god, that would be so funny. please god dump about 15' of snow on the global warming wackos please

Posted by: deveinmadisonva | January 6, 2009 6:53 PM | Report abuse

J.Jones:

Thank You!!!

Yes we need the rain! Many areas have received only 50% of normal rainfall the last 60 days!

March 15 is still more than 2 months away. We will receive snow, but moisture in any form is badly needed.

32 degrees, with rain falling in the Valley, some freezing on trees at 7pm.

The next two weeks look cold with several chances for snow.

Posted by: AugustaJim | January 6, 2009 7:05 PM | Report abuse

We're down to 31.5 degrees here just south of Old Town Alexandria. This is the first time all day that it has dropped below 32.

Posted by: bdeco | January 6, 2009 7:59 PM | Report abuse

tonights computer modeling shows COLD weather Jan 15-19 with a snow epi. stay tuned

Posted by: pvogel88 | January 6, 2009 8:12 PM | Report abuse

I'm in Owings Mills, MD and its a sheet of ice and 31. I don't even have a Advisory for southern Balt county. Is the cold air going to stay now?

Posted by: 3EyzBBQDan | January 6, 2009 8:39 PM | Report abuse

Some spots of freezing temperatures ended up forming into the areas without an advisory this evening. My thermometer dipped down to 31 in upper NW DC for a while. It looks like we may have bottomed out though... temp is up to 33 from 32 at DCA now as well.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | January 6, 2009 8:57 PM | Report abuse

3EyzBBQDan: Temps will slowly rise throught the night.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | January 6, 2009 8:59 PM | Report abuse

It's 31 outside with light freezing rain in downtown Silver Spring (about two blocks from NW DC border). Looks like its going to be a mess tomorrow morning.

Posted by: ishq | January 6, 2009 9:40 PM | Report abuse

oops...meant NE border.

Posted by: ishq | January 6, 2009 9:42 PM | Report abuse

I'm in Perry Hall, MD--NE of Baltimore. Deck, trees & shurbs are getting icy. Temps are down to 31-32--been falling all day. Is the high pressure system up north stronger than NWS thought? and filtering more cold air than they thought? I think this storm has them pulling their hair out!

Posted by: rbmlingner | January 6, 2009 9:56 PM | Report abuse

@rbmlinger

It's not really surprising temperatures have dropped a degree or two this evening... but they shouldn't go any lower. The overall trend should be for temperatures to rise after midnight--but it will be a slow process.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 6, 2009 10:10 PM | Report abuse

There sure is a lot of precip still to come. If temps do not rise we could have a very interesting morning rush hour. Maybe it is me, but reading the NWS discussions, they seem confused a bit with this storm--maybe it is me!

Posted by: rbmlingner | January 6, 2009 10:17 PM | Report abuse

@jahutch

Really nice analysis. Thanks for posting.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | January 6, 2009 10:42 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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