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Posted at 12:15 PM ET, 01/16/2009

Sunday Night Snow Scenario

By Jason Samenow

* Frigid Full Forecast | 'My Face Hurts It's So Cold' | Inauguration Forecast *

Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Sunday night/Monday morning
Probability of Accumulating Snow: 40%
Most Likely Potential Impact:

Finally, finally, snow lovers may get their wish. An area of low pressure dropping south out of Canada may well redevelop and energize off the Carolina coast, throwing back snow over the area as it moves northward Sunday night.

Temperatures will almost certainly be sufficiently cold given the Arctic air mass in place. The amount of snow will depend on how fast the coastal storm develops, the track it takes, and its northward speed.

Keep reading for more Sunday night snow discussion...

At the moment, it looks as if it may develop quickly enough to produce a period of moderate snow Sunday night before passing to our northeast. It will very likely be a fast mover, so it probably won't dump on us for a long time. Snow may begin between late Sunday afternoon and 10 at night and would likely end Monday morning.

Snow amounts could be minimal if the storm is slow to develop and/or takes a track further out in the ocean. On the other hand, rapid development and a track closer to the coast would result in substantial snow totals.

Here's our current assessment of snowfall possibilities:

Chance of less than 1": 60%
1-4": 25%
4"+: 15%

Stay tuned for further updates... These percentages will inevitably change in the next few days.

The Snow Lover's Crystal Ball appears when the potential exists for accumulating snow beyond 24 to 36 hours.

By Jason Samenow  | January 16, 2009; 12:15 PM ET
Categories:  Snow Lover's Crystal Ball  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: 'My Face Hurts It's So Cold'
Next: PM Update: Frigid Friday Night


A glimmer of hope! I'll take it!

Posted by: Snowlover2 | January 16, 2009 12:27 PM | Report abuse

Please, just this once???? I will be so upset if we go through the winter without a good snow. My kids are waiting and waiting...

Posted by: someonelikeyou | January 16, 2009 12:27 PM | Report abuse

My daughter who is three woke up yesterday thinking the pathetic little dusting was, in her words, 'ALOT of snow.' I felt sad for her that she thinks that was alot. If it snows Sunday night, in the middle of what is a 4-day weekend for us in the goverment, that would be like Xmas all over again.

Posted by: authorofpoetry | January 16, 2009 12:37 PM | Report abuse

Snow from Sunday night into Monday morning would be perfect for me! As long as I don't have to drive in it, I can just kick back and enjoy it. Can't help but worry about Inauguration revelers traveling locally though.

Posted by: --sg | January 16, 2009 12:40 PM | Report abuse

Anybody compare the 12z GFS to the 0z Euro? The 12z GFS seems faster than the Euro, which still has a sig storm.

Posted by: mciaram1 | January 16, 2009 12:47 PM | Report abuse

at least if it snows, there will be something worthwhile about all this freezing cold!!!

Posted by: madisondc | January 16, 2009 12:53 PM | Report abuse

Current temp. in Burke: 28.9 with clear skies.

Hopefully, the models won't be tricking us this time. :) They're like big bullies. They like to tantalize us with the possibility of accumulating snow. They wait until we fall for their trick and then POOF! The models snatch our snow chances away.

Posted by: Yellowboy | January 16, 2009 1:03 PM | Report abuse

This can only mean one thing: a singles dance at the Clarendon Ballroom on Sunday night.

Posted by: mmurphy70 | January 16, 2009 1:27 PM | Report abuse

Updated Siberian weather conditions: ca. 3AM local time:

Verkhoyansk: minus 24 F.

Oymyakon: minus 33 F.

Not much colder than Eau Claire, WI this morning,@ 17 below but somewhat of a "heat wave" by Siberian standards. Average Jan. temps in that part of Siberia [Sakha Republic or Yakutia] are ca. minus 58 F!

In addition, the ECMWF model is trying to develop a coastal low off Cape Hatteras on Tuesday, Inauguration Day. However, the "Euro" is a bit of an outlier at this time; don't get concerned unless the GFS and other models start picking this up on subsequent runs. Still, it's good to see a Snow Lover's Crystal Ball on the forecast page. I'm afraid Sunday's snow could be light, considering our very low dewpoints.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | January 16, 2009 1:28 PM | Report abuse

MMurphy70, Actually the singles dance is TONIGHT at the Arlington/Fairfax Elks Lodge, but I'm considering going to the Friday night swing dance at the Chevy Chase Ballroom for reasons cited below:

We had a singles dance last Friday. This is a RARE second week in a row!

The cost is $25.00. The cost of the Chevy Chase Ballroom dance is only $15.00!

The Elks Lodge is a considerable distance from the nearest Metro Station (Dunn Loring/Merrifield). The Chevy Chase Ballroom is right across the street from the nearest Metro station (Friendship Heights).

The music at the Chevy Chase Ballroom is provided by a live band (The Fabulettes). The music at the Elks Lodge is played by a DJ.

The Elks Lodge dance is coat &/or tie, black tie optional, while ordinary attire, including denim is OK at the swing dance.

I can leave home at 8:15 PM and get to the Chevy Chase Ballroom around 9:30 on Metro. I need to leave home just after 6 PM and wait a while in the cold to get to the Elks Lodge.

The only advantage the Elks Lodge has over the Chevy Chase Ballroom is the quality of the food to be served. But remember, I was there last weekend and the weather is much colder today.

Unless I have a ride home from the Elks Lodge I'll probably go to the swing dance tonight. It's quite a bit easier and less expensive to get home. [I'm also recuperating from a bit of a cold, making no dance tonight a possibility!]

Posted by: Bombo47jea | January 16, 2009 1:51 PM | Report abuse

Please please please please please with sugar on top let it snow a decent amount while we're all out of school, work, etc. Thank you, snow gods!

Posted by: weathergrrl | January 16, 2009 2:32 PM | Report abuse

I just looked at and it says that its 17 degrees... WOW! (not really), its supposed to by in the teens and low 20's here (Minnesota) next week, compared to what we've been having that's a heat wave. Anyway, I hope you guys get 6 - 8 inches, enjoy the weekend.

Posted by: oda155 | January 16, 2009 2:53 PM | Report abuse

Remember, it can still snow in February

Posted by: mmccash1 | January 16, 2009 3:00 PM | Report abuse

Jason, I agree that this cold hurts your exposed face. I did not go out for my run today, although I walked for five minutes and went back inside. Perhaps tomorrow...

Although I don't like the cold or snow, the prospect of a little bit on Sunday night or Monday morning sounds good.

Posted by: david_in_stafford | January 16, 2009 3:04 PM | Report abuse

Our family is skiing in the Poconos over the holiday so I won't be here to see what happens. Therefore, the snow is a lock. Enjoy!

Posted by: curtmccormick | January 16, 2009 3:18 PM | Report abuse

If it's this cold it BETTER snow. Otherwise it's a complete waste of cold air. A couple inches will do me 'til the big one. :)

Posted by: MKoehl | January 16, 2009 3:31 PM | Report abuse

Here is my Snow Dance:

1) Do your homework. If you don't do it, there will be no snow, you'll have to go to school, and you'll get in trouble. If you DO your homework (or adult work equivalent), it will snow, and you'll say to yourself "darn! I could have watched a movie or played a video game last night instead". But then you'll be glad you can play in the snow care free!

2) Hop on one foot and chant in a stereotypical imitation Native American Pow-Wow cadence and tone "Snow -wo wo wo wo wo. Snow wo wo wo wo wo. Snow! Snow!

3) Switch feet and repeat step two.

Posted by: WorldCup | January 16, 2009 3:33 PM | Report abuse


Rainman Greg

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | January 16, 2009 4:06 PM | Report abuse

Here is a tip. Don't look at Its a site for weenies.

Posted by: MKadyman | January 16, 2009 7:55 PM | Report abuse

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