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Posted at 11:20 AM ET, 01/17/2009

Sunday Night Snow Chances Down, Way Down

By Jason Samenow

* Full Forecast | Inauguration Weather Forecast *

Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Late Sunday afternoon-Monday a.m.
Probability of Accumulating Snow: 25%
Most Likely Potential Impact:

The promise of snow yesterday was too good to be true for snow fans. The prospect of meaningful coastal storm developing and producing accumulating snow for our area now seems remote. The storm will most likely form too late and too far offshore.

Right now, it looks like we may see a few snow showers or flurries between late afternoon Sunday and Monday morning, but accumulation would probably be a dusting or less.

Here's my latest assessment of possible scenarios:

A dusting or less: 75% chance
Dusting to 1": 15%
1-4": 5%
4"+: 5%

The Snow Lover's Crystal Ball appears when the potential exists for accumulating snow beyond 24 to 36 hours.

By Jason Samenow  | January 17, 2009; 11:20 AM ET
Categories:  Snow Lover's Crystal Ball  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Forecast: Freezing Temps, Fickle Snow Chances
Next: Inauguration Weather: What to Wear


This forecast pretty much stinks. It is the jinx of the website. No true meaningful snows since you guys launched. I blame you!!!

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | January 17, 2009 12:15 PM | Report abuse

Current temp. in Burke: 32.5

Here is my post from yesterday when the crystal ball first came out:

"Hopefully, the models won't be tricking us this time. :) They're like big bullies. They like to tantalize us with the possibility of accumulating snow. They wait until we fall for their trick and then POOF! The models snatch our snow chances away."

I just knew it. The models are such big bullies! :(

Posted by: Yellowboy | January 17, 2009 12:20 PM | Report abuse

this is from mid-atlantic weather. and they are dead on about the timing is off this winter. and IMO wil likely continue.
GLC late next week! going back to the december pattern.

Synthetically speaking, we do not have the elements for a big snow storm. The Systems that are coming through are not slowing and amplifying as the flow in the atmosphere is too fast. So we have a wave that is developing off the coast tomorrow night, but it has moved well east of the area!

Sorry for the false alarm.. this winter is NOT shaping up as a snow producer as the key elements needed keep missing!

Posted by: clintonportis17 | January 17, 2009 12:20 PM | Report abuse

At least there's not a 0% chance of accumulating snow. We still have a small chance. (Even though I don't think it will happen.)

Posted by: Yellowboy | January 17, 2009 12:40 PM | Report abuse

Hey, it never hurts to be optimistic!

Posted by: KBurchfiel | January 17, 2009 1:41 PM | Report abuse

It was a nice cold spell, but TOO DARNED DRY!!! Now somebody is threatening us with temperatures as high as 39 degrees in two days...which likely would mean more darned plain old rain if the moisture got in anyway!!!

Only good sign is that the ground is now so frozen that all we'd get is freezing rain and a real mess.

Why can't we ever get the jet stream to set up for a "Knickerbocker" style blizzard nowadays? The problem we keep having is that all the storm systems do is keep tracking to our NORTH and west. They are also rather weak--in the 1000-plus millibar range. A real snow setup would (1) track to our south & east, (2) have a central pressure of 995 mb or less. We need either a Carolina cape low offshore or a stationary boundary somewhat to our southeast with a DEEP layer of subfreezing air in place overhead. If the subfreezing air is too shallow, all we'll get is messy freezing rain/ice pellets which change to plain rain by midmorning.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | January 17, 2009 3:01 PM | Report abuse

Super Cold/High Speed Clipper Watch 2009

Hi folks, Snowy Hill here! I know many of you are disappointed by the latest model runs...

Buster Dryground: Yessire, we'll have nice weather for the inauguration- no snow, slush, or wet feet on the Mall. Beautiful.

Snowy: Buster- what says 'inauguration' better than a nice blizzard?

Buster: What...Like Reagan in 1984?

Snowy: No, actually...Taft in 1909.

Buster: Oh, uh...

Snowy: Don't worry folks, this system will slow down and pull some nice Gulf Stream moisture in over this beautiful cold air.

Buster: Or the low will rocket off into the Atlantic like all the others.

Snowy: We'll talk to you next update...until then, keep thinking white!

Posted by: snowynbuster | January 17, 2009 5:03 PM | Report abuse

So much for latest chance for any real snow for DC. Now I hear may get a couple of light snow showers here in DC while New York and points north again will get a good accumualtion of snow from this system as they have from previous systems this winter. I wouldn't be surprised if the next system will bring heavy snow to southern and central Va and points southward with a southern storm track. Again DC is left snowless.

Posted by: jtae55 | January 18, 2009 12:04 AM | Report abuse

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