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Posted at 8:30 AM ET, 02/10/2009

Forecast: Break From Winter Continues

By Matt Rogers

But cold weather returns by late week

* Later: Australia Bushfires and Climate Change: Is There a Link? *


Today: Breezy, cloudy, a few showers. 58-62. | Tonight: Cloudy. 45-49. | Tomorrow: Clouds, showers, very mild. 68-72. | A Look Ahead


Our break from winter weather will continue through the coming days as warm west to southwest winds keep us riding high into the 50s, 60s, and-dare-I-say some 70s tomorrow? The return to reality begins on Thursday with the passage of a cold front and by the holiday weekend, we'll be wondering whether it will be rain or snow again.

Temperatures: Current area temperatures. Powered by Weather Bonk. Map by Google. Hover over and click icons for more info. Click and hold on map to pan. Refresh page to update. See map bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Tuesday): Mixed clouds and sun are expected today as winds intensify from the southwest to provide even milder conditions. Look for highs from the upper 50s to the lower 60s along with a chance (30%) of some showers. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Partly cloudy skies should prevail tonight with temperatures only dropping back into the mid-to-upper 40s. We could see downtown remain at or above 50 degrees even. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the holiday weekend...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): This is our best chance for the warmest day of the week as the mild southwesterly flow peaks ahead of Thursday's cold front. Clouds and some showers (30% chance) could attempt to cap the warming, but the odds are strong for upper 60s to scattered lower 70s around the area. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night:Winds should be picking up as the cold front approaches. That front will send showers into our area (70% chance) overnight (even a rumble of thunder?) and temperatures will drop down toward the mid-to-upper 40s. Confidence: Medium


On Thursday, we begin the sad return back to winter conditions. Strong winds from the northwest will make temperatures feel a bit colder than the 50-54 range we are expecting. Look for intermittent clouds and sun. Confidence: Medium

Friday is back to what we might expect in February with lows Friday morning in the low 30s city and upper 20s in the suburbs, and daytime highs in the mid-to-upper 40s and. Confidence: Medium

The holiday weekend looks a little challenging, at least for Saturday (Valentine's Day) as a weak storm system could pass to our south. Right now, the best guess is light rain or snow showers during the day and into Saturday night. No major concerns are seen, but it's still early. Sunday and Monday are back to mainly cold weather with partly cloudy skies. Look for highs in the upper 30s to around 40 and lows mainly in the 20s through the weekend. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Matt Rogers  | February 10, 2009; 8:30 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Here Come the 60s, Again
Next: Australians Link Climate Change and Deadly Fires


While it is beyond our official forecast window, the long range weather guidance is converging on a storm threat in the Feb 17-19 (Tue-Thu) range of next week. It's too early to know what happens with this one, but early indications range from heavy snow to lots of mixed precipitation. Extremely low confidence must be emphasized! -Matt Rogers, CWG

Posted by: mrwx1 | February 10, 2009 7:48 AM | Report abuse

Top O' The Morning everyone! Let us hope that we get the "BIG ONE" on the 17-19. I WANT SNOW!!!!!

Greg The.........................
"Thunder Bolt" "Rainman" "SnowFlake"

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | February 10, 2009 8:29 AM | Report abuse

wow. i was just checking in and about to ask about the chances long-range snow - and there it is!

greg, you're becoming schizophrenic...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 10, 2009 9:28 AM | Report abuse

Matt, you are a tease!!!

I have given up on hopes of big snow this year. Doomed to little snow and ice. *sigh*

Takes all the fun out of my "Native Floridian transplant" status when there is no snow to enjoy!

Posted by: ksrgatorfn1 | February 10, 2009 10:51 AM | Report abuse

GFS Models have that storm forming to the south and staying there. Precip not making it further north than the Carolinas

Posted by: maestrojmk | February 10, 2009 10:55 AM | Report abuse

Okay so the 19th is my birthday and I think that my present should be the PERFECT snowstorm.

Posted by: manassasmissy | February 10, 2009 11:09 AM | Report abuse


You should know better to look at the GFS this far out. ooz Euro is one heck of snowstorm from DC to Boston. It also has the perfact set up for us to get a snow storm. Last two runs of the GFS have been wild! Up until this point the GFS has been consistent showing the storm effecting us one way or the other but now its playing it games. Unless the Euro follows, I would not put much stock in it this far out.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | February 10, 2009 11:18 AM | Report abuse

Nice cirrostratus/halo this morning. Did any CWG photographers catch it?

Matt, I noticed that potential storm threat for middle of next week on the CDC prelim charts. Looks as though that storm could track slightly north of the one on Saturday's chart, hence my early call is for possible mix changing to rain, or another boring ol' plain cold soaking rainstorm, since a SE wind is likely as that system approaches. Will make Augusta Jim quite happy but not me.

In the near term my dance tonight could be plagued by the showers approaching from our NW. We could possibly hear some thunder late tomorrow, though stable air over us might dampen the line of thunderstorms coming in from West Virginia. Saturday's storm looks to be weak but could be a rain/snow/sleet mix at some time during the day.

Right now a bigger threat to my dance weekend is posed by some possible Metro construction activity. I heard something on WTOP this morning about a shutdown of the Pentagon station with massive delays expected. That poses a far bigger threat to my evening dances than any weather issues, and I wish Metro would stop threatening us with such shenanigans and "service cuts". Now that gas is so expensive, we need public transit more than ever. Unfortunately the Metro bigwigs seem to be more concerned about their "bottom line" than about the welfare or satisfaction of us public transit users. I hope someone mentions this at the hearings Metro has to hold.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 10, 2009 12:25 PM | Report abuse

AJim-what do you think about next week?

Posted by: manassasmissy | February 10, 2009 1:03 PM | Report abuse

These are days that I dislike my proximity to the Bay(about a 1.5 miles). The temperature at the Naval Academy 43F, at BWI 56. The southeast wind and water act as a perfect air conditioning unit for the entire western shore of the Bay.

Posted by: arnoldkh | February 10, 2009 1:37 PM | Report abuse

It's nice out ... but 10 degrees warmer sounds even nicer. Can't wait for tomorrow.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | February 10, 2009 1:56 PM | Report abuse

All I can say is wow for the Euro! 12+ with the the POTENTIAL storm next week. I just had to say that :) windy will it be tomomrrow??

Posted by: clintonportis17 | February 10, 2009 2:23 PM | Report abuse

AccuWeather is predicting 47 feet of snow in 6 hours on 2/18/09! They said it might even snow cats and dogs this time...for real! Let the hype begin!

Posted by: authorofpoetry | February 10, 2009 3:27 PM | Report abuse


They are in severe weather mode right now.
As they should be! They will start there hype by Friday.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | February 10, 2009 3:34 PM | Report abuse


Thanks in advance for your continued patience and of course thanks for all your help, but could you share the link to the page(s) that you are looking at for your info from the Euro? I am still having problems with lots of "404's" on the Raleigh site and the Nexlab site only goes out 7 days.
Thanks (again)

Posted by: pjdunn1 | February 10, 2009 3:55 PM | Report abuse

No snow!

Posted by: bastings | February 10, 2009 3:55 PM | Report abuse

Report of funnel cloud near OKC. Sure sign of the beginning of winter's exit is tornadoes in OK.

Can't wait for tomorrow's high temps!!!

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 10, 2009 4:10 PM | Report abuse


Long range ECM (Euro) is not free. The 404's problem is I think you may be clicking on a certain hour this is not out yet on a particular model. If you go to the Raleigh site at 10:30pm tonight and go to the 00z run of the GFS and try to click on hour 192 you will get the 404 message because the model is not out that far yet. Most of the time the 00z run is completly done by 12:00am if not before. Thanks for the comment. I just read what the model is showing thats all.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | February 10, 2009 4:23 PM | Report abuse

I think looking hopefully for snow makes a lot more sense than looking forward to the outbreak of tornados that heralds spring...

Posted by: manassasmissy | February 10, 2009 5:08 PM | Report abuse


Unfortunately the 404's are showing up for the near future images. The long range, 8 day +, are the ones that I am getting when I take your advise and wait for the complete model run.
Keep up the good work of getting the snow lovers excited. ;-)

Posted by: pjdunn1 | February 10, 2009 6:52 PM | Report abuse

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