Forecast: Turning Colder, Unsettled

This is so upsetting....

Might be a real stupid question... but what are the factors that cause a front to shift... in this case the low pressure system to move very east. Wind??

Northern stream energy too strong, high pressure offshore weakens too much too fast allowing convergence focus to shift offshore, upperlevel energy never catches up with the surface system etc. etc.

As I said yesterday morning, "when in drought leave it out" serves very well. Most systems this winter have been underperformers as the long term qp deficit increases. We are in dire need of a major pattern shift toward more rain or snow before spring and summer. We need 200% of normal rainfall for several months instead of the 50% of normal long-term trend we have witnessed.

Will it happen???????? Perhaps, but not likely.

99.5 FM is saying "1-3 inches of snow tonight." Where are they getting their weather from? Sounds like the entire radio industry just makes up their own weather or something. I know that the couple of times I listened to the Jack Diamond Morning Show, all of the weather forecasts he read were way off from what actually happened.

AugustaJim: My guess to end the drought is that we'll get a tropical storm/tropical remnants to stall over the area this summer. Or we'll have one or two thunderstorms a day for 2 months like we had last summer. I would prefer the latter, though.

"While not nearly as warm as yesterday thanks to a blanket of clouds..."

ummmm...there is not a cloud in the sky.

BOOO. Are the odds of significant accumulation so low that it isn't even worth mentioning a percentage chance? 10%? 5%?

Weatherdude:
You were quite lucky last summer. I had closer to 2 thunderstorms per month!!

NBC said this morning that we would have 1 inch by morning and possibly 2-3 more during the day on Tuesday. Doesn't sound likely at all based on this site.

is tom k on nbc4 overhyping???

ok, this is going to be my last-gasp effort to get us some snow. given how the models have been fluctuating all over the place since last week, what are the chances of one more "shift" in the right (snow) direction?

but first, is my impression that models have been fluctuating correct? or have they been trending down (away from snow) somewhat consistently?

Any thoughts on the coverage of the radar echos over the SE? They seem more robust, and further SW, than models were indicating.

@gfp76:
is that good (for snow)?

This is a GREAT forecast! Not disappointing at ALL. I think I speak for all lovers of warm weather when I saw that I welcome some above average temperatures for a change. While all the winter weather lovers complain that we haven't had Maine-like conditions around here, the fact is that this winter has been more "wintery" than many due to the abnormally cold temperatures. Augusta Jim is right, though, we are once again down on precip. Gardens and crops will suffer this spring if we don't get moisture in the ground soon.

In other parts of the country, 1-3 inches IS light snow. ;p

@southsideFFX:
nothing personal, but that's just crazy talk ;-). we have plenty of chances during the year for summery weather. for me, rain in winter is a waste of precip., and cold w/o snow is just cold and unpleasant. (lots of snow now would be great for our gardens and crops too.)

@baddabing1

Good point re: lack of clouds this morning. They will increase, however, later and limit high temps. But we may get warmer than I anticipated...

I think Accuweather should have to change their name to HypeWeather, Time after Time, terrible forecasts. Thank god for people like Capital Weather Gang.

Hey Walter, just personal opinion, but I wouldn't hold my breath for a big shift in the models. With the exception of the hiccup at 0z late Saturday night on the NAM/GFS, most of the models have been consistently offshore. Anything can happen, but things have to be more or less absolutely perfect for us to get a big storm around here, and that rarely happens. That said, if we got even another 2 inch storm followed by a couple days of cold, at this point, I'd take it!

All my friends in England are complaining about the entire country (apparently) being shut down by snow:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7864395.stm

@timjuliani
thanks for responding. that "hiccup" is what i guess i latched onto. my rational mind knows things have been trending away from snow ever since last week, and though i am generally a rational person, i am not rational about snow. it is just so beautiful and fun to play in. at this point i'd be happy with 2" too, but it seems like we're not even getting that. wah, wah, wah. (that's me crying...)

@capwxgang:
when is the next big snowstorm on the horizon i can get whipped into a frezy about, then be disappointed by?

What time will you post the School Cast?? Optimistic teachers want to know!!! :)

were in for a big warm up late week and possibly after. According to big bad JB at Accu, were in for a colder then average and stormy(snowy) for the mid atlantic. Its JB so take it with a grain of salt!

Mid to late February through early to mid march so he says.

Artteach... no school cast! I'm thinking we will wake up tomorrow morn to a dusting and that is it.

Hey! We teach in VA so we can get a snowday from a few snowflakes!!! :) hee hee

weather.com is telling me it's going to snow through tuesday and into wednesday now.

Thanks a bunch global warming =(

I believe CWG is the *ONLY* wx team that consistently did NOT jump on the "storm of the century" bandwagon; yes, they mentioned the POSSIBILITY last week but tempered that consistently with the other, far more likely scenarios. Job well done so far, CWG'ers.

Having said that, I'm glad I didn't have to forecast this storm - I'm convinced it's going to come right down to a NOWcast at this point. I just found this gentleman's blog (http://www.footsforecast.info/), who follows and blogs about wx in the Mid-Atlantic, and he also has some interesting things to say about tomorrow's event...

Model ballet continues. The 12Z GFS and to some extent the NAM both show a more robust system and precip shield backing westward, now covering at least the eastern parts of the forecast area. The GFS now looks wetter and a little wilder than in previous runs.

Don't fall into the GFS/NAM trap again. Look where that got everyone Sat. nite.

Beautiful day again today out there. Temps likely to top out warmer than forecasted.

Ugh! This storm has had more personality changes than Sybill! I am a mere weather enthusiast, by no means an expert, but I'm willing to bet this storm isn't done playing with our heads. Fun!

Um, guys? I don't mean to take the conversation away from the snow, but WHY did they send the hurricane hunters out today? They sent them to 30.4N 77.8W, which is about 200 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida. What does all this mean?

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. A63/ CARPS (30.4N 77.8W)/ 02/1200Z
B. AFXXX 02WSA TRACK63
C. 02/0515Z
D. 4 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK PLUS
CARPS FOR A TOTAL OF 5
E. 30,000 FT/ 02/1400Z
F. CLOCKWISE
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. A63/ CARPS (30.4N 77.8W)/ 03/0000Z
B. CLOCKWISE...4 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON
TRACK PLUS CARPS FOR A TOTAL OF 5

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?

Some folks are screaming "drought" again. Wish it were so...except for last week's mix-storm and the New Years Eve thundersnow "teaser", the only precipitation I've seen this winter is RAIN...and mighty cold rain at that!

I probably won't be worrying about drought, unless we have an exceptionally dry spring.

QPF on the 12z Euro looks good for at least a couple inches...

latest models are trending up with precip amts.

I know the odds are against it but I keep thinking about those storms that were forecast to be "a dusting to an inch" and proceeded to dump way over predictions. I've been here since 1995 and this has happened a handful of times---even the 1996 blizzard was just supposed to be a few inches the day it started. Then the snow total predictions started to rise...and rise until they were talking in terms of feet. Then a few days later they predicted flurries (or something equally uninteresting---and we ended up with 7 inches.

Given the back and forth of these models and given that there is still uncertainty and given that the next two weeks look to be warm and our snow chances are dwindling---I am going to hope the current forecast is wrong until the last flake falls.

@capwxgang:
when's the new update coming reflecting holt1's and danuva's bullish references?

i guess what i'm asking is, is anything to what they're saying?

@walter et all

Most definitely something to the comments here, most of the mid-day computer models did bring much more "hope" to those looking for snow in the next 24 hours.

Will this hope be enough? I don't know, but Ian and the PM update should give us all a pretty good idea of the current thinking in the next hour or so.

Just remember, this has been a very dynamic system from the start, beginning as super land-storm (I prefer land-i-cane) last Thursday to a storm going over Bermuda this weekend to now something that may be throwing some moisture back to us, so at this point, be wary of any major pronouncements one way or the other

Not sure what the teachers are worried about - the predicted dusting should be enough to close school at least tomorrow.

And not to throw a bomb or start up this discussion again, but am I the only concerned that teachers are on here clamoring for snow days in equal numbers to school kids on here clamoring for snow days???

jjones:
excellent! that's just the straw i needed to grasp. i'm going to the store now to buy provisions...

Why does it matter if people want a day off. Chill out about it.

Teachers aren't as bad. They would prefer a Friday or Monday off.

And I don't think schools will close tomorrow. I gather this thing starts tonight and we only get an inch, if that, and then it snows all day Tuesday. Your best bet is Wednesday, but if its just snow, then I'm sure the roads will be clear.

This is interesting. My father-in-law reports a "surprise snowstorm" in east Tennessee has already closed schools for at least tomorrow. Is the thinking locally that that there will be too much warm air for much snow east of the Allegheny Front?

current radar loop:
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USVA0731&animate=true

Just noticed something, don't know whether it's significant or not, but the actual precipitation shield in the SE (SE Georgia, South Carolina) is developing considerably NW of its position on the 18Z NAM that is just coming out. I have been checking the Charleston radar loop and the heaviest precip right now is still over land in the vicinity of Vidalia and Hinesville, GA, moving up toward Walterboro and Chas, SC. And it seems to be moving NNE more than NE. The actual low may actually be trending west of the forecast model position.

HM isn't the first met over at Accuweather to say he's received extremely nasty emails over this storm. He's not blogging about the weather for a while because of it. It amazes me that people get so nasty about the weather. I understand that we get a little upset that it won't snow, but to get so upset over the weather that you're going to say hateful and threatening things? That's ridiculous.

This is the entire post from his latest blog post, posted not too long ago:

I had a chance to read through the hundreds of e-mails and comments and it saddens me to see so many threats and hatred by people over a snowstorm. So the forecast went bad and went bad for many reasons, some of which still baffle me today. But to have people e-mail me with the garbage that I have read really is not right at all. Quite honestly, it scares me to even post any more, and I really don't want to post any more given the shameful comments I have received. Therefore, I am taking a break from blogging about the weather.

Current temp. in Burke: 56 with increasing cloud cover.

From Henry Margusity's blog:

I had a chance to read through the hundreds of e-mails and comments and it saddens me to see so many threats and hatred by people over a snowstorm. So the forecast went bad and went bad for many reasons, some of which still baffle me today. But to have people e-mail me with the garbage that I have read really is not right at all. Quite honestly, it scares me to even post any more, and I really don't want to post any more given the shameful comments I have received. Therefore, I am taking a break from blogging about the weather.

Apparently, the "Madman" is literally mad.

When will we get snow like we used to??

Winter Weather Advisory up, but basically only for mountains (1-2 inches). In VA, advisory doesn't get east of Clarke Co.

The radar loop in GA/SC startign to look more impressive. TIme to stop lookign at models and look at the radar. This is what happened in our suprise storm in 05. Kept saying nothing (models take storm out to sea), but all day the radar showed slow moveement NNE rather than NE up the coast. Could be happening again. Only thing not sure of is how the artic front will interact. Is it possible it could slow down/stall just east of our area to interact with the storm riding up the coast? Or am i just majorly wishcasting?!