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Posted at 12:00 PM ET, 02/16/2009

Forecast: Weather Active Again By Midweek

By Dan Stillman

Next chance of precipitation is Wednesday


Today: Partly to mostly cloudy a.m. Partly sunny p.m. Steady breeze. 38-42 | Tonight: Mostly clear and cold. Low-to-mid 20s. | Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny. Low-to-mid 40s. | A Look Ahead


Enjoying the long weekend? The weather itself is taking a sort of vacation, too. Gone is the excitement of last week's highs near 70 and winds gusting over 60 mph. In their place we have a relatively quiet stretch, which started over the weekend, of temperatures near or a bit below average, light winds and little to no precipitation. Things pick up again -- in the form of some rain and wind -- starting Wednesday.

Temperatures: Current area temperatures. Powered by Weather Bonk. Map by Google. Hover over and click icons for more info. Click and hold on map to pan. Refresh page to update. See map bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Monday): A mostly cloudy morning should turn into a partly sunny afternoon. A steady breeze around 10-15 mph from the northwest combined with rather chilly temperatures -- highs in the upper 30s to near 40 -- will make for a pretty cold day. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Quite cold with evening temperatures dropping through the 30s, down to overnight lows in the low-to-mid 20s (suburbs to city). Skies should be mostly clear with evening breezes around 5-10 mph diminishing to near 5 mph or less by morning. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through the work week...

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Kinda cold, but all in all a nice day -- partly to mostly sunny with light winds and highs in the low-to-mid 40s. Confidence: High

Tomorrow Night: Not as cold as tonight, with increasing clouds and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s (suburbs to city). Confidence: High


Wednesday we'll see mostly cloudy skies with winds gradually increasing from the south during the day as a storm system approaches from the west. That'll mean a chance of rain showers starting around late morning -- possibly mixing with some snowflakes at the start -- and then rain shower chances lasting into Wednesday night. Daytime temps should max out in the 40s, followed by Wednesday night lows in the 30s. Confidence: Medium

Thursday arrives as a moderately windy day behind the departing storm system, and a few showers could linger. But temperatures don't drop off as highs reach the 40s again. Confidence: Medium

Friday closes out the work week in not-so-fine fashion. We stay windy -- and colder with highs struggling to reach the upper 30s to near 40. Maybe some snow flurries to top things off. Confidence: Medium

By Dan Stillman  | February 16, 2009; 12:00 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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well, you guys are so rational, and therefore depressing, about our chances for snow for the rest of this winter. so, i'd like a long long range forcast for NEXT winter (even thought the predicted lots-of-snow-winter didn't pan out for this year).

what does el nino/la nina look like for next winter? can you even tell this far in advance? am i correct to say we want a weak la nina for good snow? i remember from last winter that the north atlantic oscillation has an effect too. how is that shaping up for next winter? can you tell this far in advance?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 16, 2009 8:54 AM | Report abuse

We had snow flurries after sunrise in western Fairfax County. The sun was shining and there was blue sky above with light snow falling. That is the third time this winter we've had light snow falling with sun shine.

Posted by: Kevin-CapitalWeatherGang | February 16, 2009 9:02 AM | Report abuse

Even rain chances look somewhat light [0.1-0.25"] with the midweek storm, thus far. The reason I don't like this "boring forties" rain is because it does nothing but soak in & chill you to the bone. Snow is relatively dry and can be shaken off, while rain at milder temperatures can soak you but doesn't have quite the chilling effect of rain in the thirties/forties range.

There seem to be quite a few flurries south of here, due to building cumuls clouds. Some of theses clouds are near-congestus in shape.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 16, 2009 12:22 PM | Report abuse

GFS shows a chance of snow by Sunday. It will probably be gone by tomorrow.

Posted by: bdeco | February 16, 2009 1:07 PM | Report abuse

I think I just saw some very tiny flurries languorously making their way to the ground about 15 minutes ago, and now the sun is coming out.

Posted by: LaurainNWDC | February 16, 2009 3:40 PM | Report abuse

I woke up to a quarter inch of snow this morning with continuing snowshowers throughout the morning. More sun this afternoon, but windy and cold. 34 degrees at 4 pm.

I plan to pass on some longterm thoughts and interesting statistics on March yesteryear snowfall later today or tomorrow as time permits.

Posted by: AugustaJim | February 16, 2009 4:14 PM | Report abuse



Posted by: stinkerflat1 | February 16, 2009 4:41 PM | Report abuse

The 18z GFS and NAM suggest a period of snow, especially western areas, late tomorrow night and early Wed. This is all contingent on precip. moving in early enough for temps. both surface and aloft to support frozen precip.

The GFS gives portions of the Shenandoah Valley an inch or two of snow before warmer air rushes in. The D.C area may begin as a brief period of snow before changing to rain. This scenerio is also supported by the 12z runs of the GFS and NAM.

The main thrust of this system should be rain, since the center will pass well to our northwest and there is no strong cad. Rainfall amounts should be on the order of .25-.50".

The next threat will be on Sat. as a clipper system moves southeast toward us. Confidence on this system is very low. The models have been very unreliable with the mid and long-term this winter. The northern jet has been dominate and progressive with many imbedded shortwaves. The models have had a tough time dealing with the sequence. The 12z GFS gave a very robust look to Sat. and Sat. night with accumulating snow for D.C. and region. The Euro. was much weaker and north. The 18z GFS has backed off, big time, and now only gives a chance of some light snow on Sat.

Unfortunately, Mother Nature does not like to drop significant amounts of rain or snow on the MA this winter. My area is already in a moderate drought and D.C. is abnormally dry.

We have had a cold and dry winter and there are no strong signals of this changing anytime soon.

Thoughts on a very uncertain March and the long-term tomorrow.

Posted by: AugustaJim | February 16, 2009 5:34 PM | Report abuse

Wish the wind would quit blowing, it's making it difficult 2 fish at the 301 Bridge. Couldn't go again 2day because of the stinkin wind, with more wind on Wed, Thurs. & Fri. Of course, the 1 day of no wind is tomorrow & I have 2 get some lab work done, so no fishing. Saw a 2 min snow flurry 2day.

Posted by: VaTechBob | February 16, 2009 6:55 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for the analysis, AugustaJim. I was thinking we might get some accumulating snow in the Blue Ridge Mtns this Wednesday. Today's high at my location was was only 34.9F with below freezing temps for much of the day.

Current Observations: 20.7F, clear skies

Posted by: spgass1 | February 16, 2009 10:47 PM | Report abuse

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