PM Update: Front Brings Rain Changing to Snow

What's it looking like down here in Albemarle County (more specifically zip 22935)? Dark clouds have moved in and wind/cool air is taking over, no precip yet. Will there be a snow forecast map tonight? Thanks!

The wind is really starting to whip around my third-floor Lake Ridge aerie. Let's see how quickly the temp starts to come down...it was pretty warm earlier this afternoon.

Thanks. Great Post by the way. I see that 1-3 inches isn't out of the game. Even 6+. Is there any chance of a complete mistake and we have a lot more than expected. More than 5 inches. Everobody has their own opinions and it makes it confusing. Somebody had a good point of saying 6+ isnt out of the game

No discussion on the models changing again with this post? Can you confirm they are shifting back to the west again?

Can somebody post the thing that shows the shift like bbv91258 asked?

Last comment: Did you chance the probability to 3 and below??? Or did somebody hack it???

@carrerascott

We usually only do a snowfall map if we're fairly confident there will be at least 1" of snow. We may do one late this evening and/or for early tomorrow morning if conditions warrant...

SNOW is beginning to fall!! with a north to northeast wind of 15-20.

Temp. has dropped from 57 to 38 in 2 hrs.

where are you augusta jim? i assume "augusta", but where's that?

Went out for a little over in hour in Alexandria. Temps definitely fell a good amount and the clouds are coming in.

Now, it seems not so silly to be talking about snow.

Walter:

30 miles n.w. of Charlottesville on the west side of the Blue Ridge, in the Shenandoah Valley.

Exactly. But if you had to be honest how much would you say we get? Sorry for all of these comments? But you got me exited :)

To respond to the comments above, from what I have seen models are not shifting back to the west.

thanks. is that along rt.81? near staunton? i believe i used to drive by there on my way to/from vatech. i think i'm jealous of your "west of the blue ridge" location. do you usually get more/less/same snow as dc sw suburbs?

wind is definitely picking up in Silver Spring.

Hoya, there's a lot of potential for this to bust low or even high with regard to snowfall. It's a relatively small-scale feature expected to produce the accumulation and it can shift pretty easily either direction. I think 70% chance of less than 3" should give you a pretty good idea of what to expect for now.

Sounds like we're just east of Jim on the other side of the Blue Ridge -- can see them right now (well mostly obscured by clouds now). We're a few miles from the Green county border in Albemarle. No precip here yet.

But does that mean 3 inches. How come noaa still says half an inch. Man i love this website. You guys r good.

This winter it seems 70% chance of 0-3" means 100% chance of

I think it's safe to say 100% chance of less than 3"

CWG rocks!

@mwelsh

CWG rocks!

Don't tell us mwelsh... Tell your friends. ;)

carerrascott: We had the same idea at the same second!

All I know is that the temperature dropped 10 degress in about an hour. What does it mean? That it's getting colder. I've given up trying to figure this thing out.

anytime i start talking local weather with anybody, i tell them "go to capwx." they're always impressed.

You have a cult following in my building. (If I told you where I work, I'd have to, well, you know. Such is life in D.C...)
Hang in there, guys!
~Mike

Snow still falling. Vis. approx. 1 mile. Temp. down to 34.

Walter: Yes, very close to I81. We normally get around 10 inches more per year than the sw side of D.C. but the last few years have not been normal!

Yeah, hubby gets miffed when I say I have to stay up to wait for the schoolcast ;o) I'm a fan!

Still, if we get 3" that will be the biggest snowfall of the season for most places in the metro area. And with our expectations having been lowered over the weekend, it would come as a pleasant surprise! Right now (5 PM) it's fallen to 40 after a high of 55 here in Greenbelt. I think that by the time any precip gets here it should be of the frozen variety.

Light windblown rain falling here in 22935.

Cold front coming in. 39 in bethesda. You can tell snow is on the way.

@

And to think I thought I had made it home early enough today to get a good run in with these great temps. Oh well, I guess I'll trade another day in the gym for potential snow tonight...

{Takes off his official hat for a second}

... snow dance_snow dance_snow dance_snow dance ...

What was I saying again?

mwelsh says "CWG Rocks!" ... CWG's Jamie Jones says, "Don't Tell Us ... Tell Your Friends" ... I second Jamie's motion!, and remind everyone that there are several ways to tell your friends and family where to find us:

www.CapitalWeatherGang.com
www.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang

and remember, we're here rain, snow or shine, 24/7, 365 days a year.

Snow has reached Martinsburg, WVa...

Winds are howling and temps are crashing...models show temperatures falling from around 50 mid-afternoon to mid 30s mid-to-late evening (7-9 pm).

capitalweather.com works as well

Moderate snow falling in Harrisonburg now. Got a nice coating on the ground.

Oriolesfan -- push it across the mountain! It's not here yet but the mountains are now *completely* gone from our view.

Oooh...my son's at college in Shepherdstown (very close to Martinsburg)...bet he's celebrating!

this is all awesome news, right? i mean, wasn't it supposed to start as rain? or will it still start as rain in falls church?

Looks like many places are only seeing very brief rain if any before the change to snow. With temps falling fast in the metro area we may see similar.

yay!!!!!!!!!! Snow!!! (hopefully)

Perhaps a nice surprise tomorrow - similar to the Jan 2000 surprise snowstorm.. Radar looks like there's potential this thing hugs the coast a bit closer.. Fingers crossed..

5:30:

Moderate snow, vis. .5 mile, ne breeze 5-10, temp. 33, ground turning white.

Where did you see thay radar zman??? Im keeping my fingers crossed for 5+

There's a big slug of moisture in the lower midlands of South Carolina right now, seems to be moving NE but the leading edge has just pushed north of Columbia. It almost looks like a deformation zone; the front is just pushing into Charlotte. If this area holds up and continues its present movement, it will reach Raleigh in a few hours, maybe Richmond before midnight and possibly even parts of the DC area after that. When I last looked at the radar, this area of precip was in south central Georgia and didn't look like much of anything. The NAM and especially the GFS seemed to have picked up on it. This could well be our snow source once it moves into the colder surface/aloft air that should be well in place in DC later this evening.

its getting darker= temps will keep on droppin!!!

Hoyafan - per your question, check out the following radar link: http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true&location=default

There seem to be a lot more commentators today. I think that last storm helped CWG's popularity! Great job guys!

Cold cold wind driven rain here... hoping for changeover shortly!

Waiting patiently here near Union Station....

Skywalker from Silver Spring

@carrerascott, let us know when and if you change on over (and where you are).

Still getting steady snow here in Harrisonburg. The grass is now completely covered. Pavement is starting to get white. I'll go out and measure in a bit.

so when do new models come out? will we have a better feel for things tonight or will we not know until tomorrow?

where is our snow coming from. is it all that rain in the SE? how much do u think we'll get? more than 3?

I'm a closet weather geek who has been lurking here for a long time. I just wanted to tell you guys how much I appreciate your detailed and non-hyped weather forecasts. My students today were all commenting how their Blackboard widgets said they were going to get a lot of snow tonight (I think it's powered by Accuweather....) and I showed them this blog. I think you'll have 28 more schoolcast readers tonight ;-).

I see a lot of moisture coming our way from the south and west. The precip band over central SC has weakened but the frontal band now moving through Charlotte and the SC upstate has strengthened considerably and since everything is moving SW to NE right now and there is still a lot of precip to our west, I think the answer to our snow accumulation is not in the western Atlantic, it's a lot closer to home. Check out the radars, Greer, Raleigh, Blacksburg, even Sterling although I think it's adjusted for snow echoes. And Greer isn't the southern edge of this precipitation either. We have an interesting night ahead.

6:30:
1 inch of SNOW, moderate SNOW, 32 degrees,
pavement covering.

@hoya

Re: how much? We've given you the possibilities above...we're thinking around an inch is most likely, but there's significant uncertainty.

@HistoryTchr

Thanks for the nice comments and for promoting our blog. Your students are welcome here...

@shirlingtonvillage

The next set of models come out between 9 and 11 tonight. Not expecting radical changes though.

@HistoryTchr,

That's got to be the best thing this thread has heard all day.
Welcome to all 28 of HistoryTchr's students.
Too cool!

35 degrees with moderate rain in Culpeper va

I am also a wannabe weather geek that has been lurking here for awhile. As a native Washingtonian I get ultra-hyped at the thought of these snow "events" (much to the chagrin of my Native New Englander wife) and this blog and you commentators are an absolute delight. And even though it will wreak havoc with my day I got to say COME ON SNOW!

Light rain here, I think...

As far as "advertising" goes: I'm the TV weatherman for my school, and use CapWX and the NWS sites primarily for the forecasts. I need to credit you guys more, but I have mentioned a few times that Capital Weather is my site of choice.

one inch total????

Maybe we will all be surprised in the morning with a couple of inches on the ground. One can hope:)

Teachers and students would love it if you would post your schoolcast early and then update it at 10....we are too excited to hear what you guys are going to predict to wait!!! Our entire staff are BIG fans! Let it snow!

Your predictions don't make sense! 3 or less 70 %
1-3 35%

IT's the same thing isn't it. Any chance of 3 inches??? AT ALL???

Sorry, but nbcwashington is being crazy! 1-4 inches?? On the radar it shows 2-4 all around us. Let me know what you think.

http://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/More-Snow-Could-Test-DCs-New-Flinty-Resolve.html

Half an apple, at the most!

hoya dude -- that's not what he meant. he meant there's a 70 percent hcance of 3 inches or less (35% of that being the probablity of less than one inch, and another 35 % of that being 1-3 inches) Then another 30% chance for anything over that.

35+35=70...

I'm hoping for snow, but just enough to melt by Thursday when I head to the Mtns to carve it up. I despise route 66 in good weather (especially during rush hour).

Thanks for the hard work CWG'ers.

My prediction is for micro-accumulations:
50% for .1 - .3 inch
50% for .4 - .6 inch

If we're so lucky! ;-)

k thanks

Last Comment: Where can I find the map thing where it shows the Gfz or whatever it is?

That British snowstorm is spreading west into Ireland! Met Eireann is forecasting blizzard conditions possible for parts of Ulster and Leinster with possible accumulations as high as 10 cm. [This is RARE in Ireland which usually gets mild weather from the Gulf Stream in winter.]

Maybe that upper-air storm will still hit us with a surprise tomorrow into Wednesday. Otherwise next weekend is so mild I'm planning a trail hike.

Poorteach-
Put your Pj's on inside out and be optimistic!!! Don't forget to flush ice cubes down the toliet for luck...it might also help lower the ground level temps!! hee hee

Art teach.. what county are you in? I don't foresee too much snow. Even if we get snow I think we'll have school, as we used 2 days already.

To: mjwies11

I'm with ya -- I'm a native Washingtonian with a New Englander husband who rolls his eyes every time a "snow event" gets predicted. Just discovered this site -- What fun!

Here it comes.

Maybe I'm crazy, but the snow is coming down pretty thick here in Hamilton, VA. I know I'm NW of DC's predictions, but I was anticipating more rain and less snow. Nice surprise thus far!

8:00 PM:

TWO INCHES ON THE GROUND AND COMIN DOWN!!

32 DEGREES, PAVEMENT WHITE.

About 1/4 inch here around Oatlands in Leesburg. Walkway covered but too far from the dirt road to tell if it's sticking there.

Nothing here in Germantown.

it seems like the low pressure system forming in the south is taking away some of the moisture from the low pressure system around here

rain in bethesda switching to snow soon

Still dry in Lake Ridge...but very cold.

To: nonfrequentflyer

It is always great to find a comrade in arms (and get a shout out)!

Nothing much going on in Tenleytown.

If only I had a magical bag of Doritos....come on snow!

i'm watching the radar and it seems like there's a "protective bubble" over washington - precipitation seems to vanish just before getting to dc...

32 degrees here in culpeper va and snowing pretty good since 7:30ish! grass and tables, grill are white but melting on roads.

walter-in-fallschurch: Yup, that's the good ol' DC bubble for ya. Did you know that snowlovers and bubbles are naturally born enemies?

ah, AugustaJim, you are making me miss my days in the Valley (Winchester, if you're wondering).

Also, just to continue the CWG love: I've been reading you guys since the beginning, and never hesitate to recommend you to others. I've definitely gotten the staff at my school hooked!

as for the "storm", i'm prepared for a pretty little dusting, and then i'll get my hopes up for the next one.

Snow starting here in Herndon... Very Wet and mixing with Rain

Here in Sterling, it rained a little, quickly followed by a change-over at around 7:50. Light snow right now; no accumulation on anything as of yet.

The thing with these coastals is that I can never see where the snow is coming from until it's on the radar. This is just precipitation from the cold front... not from the coastal, so I still feel in the dark.

Apparently, so does NWS, posting only a 50% chance of snow for Sterling tomorrow.

I've been following this one in the model fantasies since last week; if only it was the monster that they were showing before.

I love you guys, but waiting until 10 pm for the schoolcast will kill me. I need to be up by 5 am :o( I know it doesn't make a difference, but knowing what someone ELSE thinks makes me more of a realist.

-snowdancesnowdancesnowdance-

Don't lose sleep waiting for SchoolCast because chances are you won't get to sleep in. How's that for a clue?

Two and one half inches at 9 pm, 31 degrees. North wind 5 mph

Nice!!

Coming down Very Hard now.. All Snow

Windshield getting some snow on it, dirt getting a slight dusting.

Nice clue Jason! Everyone will be in school on time tomorrow.

couldn't post til now, hungry people to feed. It rained for about 10 secs before switching over to rain (I left Manassas at 6:30 and by the time i got to New Balt it was snowing steadily.). 3/5 inch and still snowing!

that was supposed to be 3/4-1 inch. And this is the most excited i've seen augusta jim since the last rain storm in the valley!

Lots of snow coming down in Reston -- the grass in already covered with white. Whee -- let's hope this storm outperforms what is forecast.

snow coming down pretty hard with about an 1/2 inch so far. roads a becoming snow covered. temp 31 degrees with a persistent wind here in Culpeper va.

9:10pm. Nada, zilch, dry in NW DC. Curse you, evil "urban heat island", curse you!

Where is my snow :)

Light sleet in Arlington (near Falls Church).

extremely quiet in laurel.

too quiet.

I've got bupkes in Old Town, Alexandria.....

Light-to-moderate snow began about 9pm in Oakton, VA. The ground is coated white.

Weathergrrl:
You are exactly right! I have received less than 1 inch of snow during the past 381 days!! 4.5" 1-17-08.

Time to get excited!!!!

We've got sleet in upper NW DC. A new post is up with SchoolCast.

Light snow in NW Spotsy. This looks like the last chance 4 a decent snow this winter. Starting Fri. temps r going 2 b above average thru at least mid Feb.