So far, the local TV mets seem to be playing down the threat, but some charts I've seen hint at a rather massive snow event here. We could be setting up for a surprise somewhat akin to Presidents Day, 1979. However, CPC hasn't jumped on the bandwagon, as they seem to think that insufficient cold air advection favors an option more slushy than snowy.

The folks at AW (i.e., JB) have gone out on the proverbial limb and now calling for 6-12 DCA and north. Thoughts CWG?

worldtraveler - what's AW? JB?

Zman: my assumption is AW = (in)AccuWeather and JB = Joe Bastardi.

HPC for Day 3: EXPECT THIS CLOSED LOW TO LIFT DUE NORTH OR NERLY AND THE STREAM TO THE NORTH TO SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY PARTIALLY PHASE. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE 500 MB LOW LIFTING THROUGH WRN NC/SWRN VA TO THE MID-ATL COAST AND AN INCREASE IN HEAVY OVERRUNNING POTENTIALLY BANDING SNOW FROM THE MID-ATL COAST UP THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND COAST.

Thanks hobbes9..

I will believe the snow when I see it accumulating on my driveway.

I've got to hand it to Joe Bastardi for making such a gutsy call so early, but this could easily blow up in his face. JB is the weather equivalent of the former baseball player Dave Kingman who would either hit a home run or strikeout.

CWG - agreed. Just find it interesting that both he and HM have been burned over and over (and over) again this winter but now willing to make such a gutsy call so early. One final 'hurrah' before the curtain falls on winter?

A majority of JB's fanbase is in the I95... he certainly does not want to be left in the cold should a storm actually hit us. 6-12 is pretty bold (or silly) at this point, though it is certainly a possibility should all come together correctly.

I will only believe when I see.

JB went 6-12?! Thats gutsy indeed. I don't even thing you could use a valid meteorological technique to come up with that with what I'm seeing.

Henry Margusity has a map of where snow potential is...DC is not in his zone, which is mostly south and east of here...My Accuweather ap. on my I-Touch says .50 inches of precip through Sunday, all in the form of rain. BTW, shouldn't storms be called spring storms starting Sunday...?

Brian,

I disagree that with your that JB does not have valid meteorological technique. In his column he explicitly spells out why he believes what he is thinking. Go read his column and then tell me he doesn't have valid reasons. Just doesn't seem like valid criticism.

this is very exciting. just the kind of thing i was hoping for.

MC,
He may very well have his own technique, and based on some of his forecasts, he must. I can't read what that might be however because I don't subscribe to accuweather, so I'll have to take your word on it. But he makes a call and sticks to it, and he's good at what he does. Still, for any of our area, outside of the mts, to sniff 6-12", things must come together in a way that can only be described as a long shot. I'd put 6" as our loft ceiling for this one.(And you can read my official forecast on Sunday!)

The first wave (saturday night/sunday morning) is looking pretty good on the latest NAM. While i doubt local areas will see much, i could see the high spots of western VA and WV getting a good 3-7 inches out of the first wave. The second low (sunday night/monday) is still just a bit east of the metro area. Just a slight shift NW will put DC in the sweetspot.

No matter what track the 2nd low ends up taking, it looks to be an impressive storm for someone.

What the...? I turn my back for a day - one day! - and a snowstorm sneaks up on us?

"sweetspot" - nice...

The GFS model continues trending toward a sizeable snowstorm in the area for 'wave 2'.

Ian, just wanted to say as a relatively new reader of easternwx (but a longtime reader of capwx) how much fun it is to see you posting over there. Very hard to sort through the chaff sometimes (especially for an amateur like me) and it's nice to see the pros participate as much as they do, you in particular...especially on nights like tonight!

Lou Scally (NBC25) is predicting just an inch or two for Saturday night.

Thanks mookie2, good to hear. :)