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Posted at 6:00 PM ET, 02/27/2009

PM Update: Waiting on Weekend Storminess

By Ian Livingston

Wintry mix late Saturday; Snow Sunday night?

* Snow Lover's Crystal Ball: A Pair of Weekend Storms *

Despite plenty of clouds, a wind from the south and southwest helped temperatures rise into the low-to-mid 60s today -- well above average for this time of year. A cold front passing through the region touched off a few showers this afternoon, but rain totals have been generally light. Today's warmth is about to exit and be replaced by colder temperatures and the chance for not one but two wintry events.

Through Tonight: Clouds, some gusty breezes and the chance of an isolated shower stick around into the evening as temperatures stay mild -- only dropping into the 50s. Overnight, skies partially clear and winds start to come out of the north, dropping lows to the upper 30s to near 40.

Tomorrow (Saturday): Expect partly sunny conditions through midday as temperatures rise to the low 40s for highs. Rain showers are likely to develop during the afternoon from south to north across the area, possibly mixing with or changing to sleet and snow toward evening, especially north and west of D.C. Some snow/sleet accumulation is possible by Sunday morning.

How much accumulation? See our Snow Lover's Crystal Ball for a detailed look at the potential impact of both tomorrow night's wintry mix and a Sunday night/Monday snow threat. And see Josh Larson's full forecast for tomorrow night through early next week.

By Ian Livingston  | February 27, 2009; 6:00 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Forecast: Potential Winter Storm Sunday to Monday

Comments

So far, the local TV mets seem to be playing down the threat, but some charts I've seen hint at a rather massive snow event here. We could be setting up for a surprise somewhat akin to Presidents Day, 1979. However, CPC hasn't jumped on the bandwagon, as they seem to think that insufficient cold air advection favors an option more slushy than snowy.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 27, 2009 4:41 PM | Report abuse

The folks at AW (i.e., JB) have gone out on the proverbial limb and now calling for 6-12 DCA and north. Thoughts CWG?

Posted by: worldtraveler | February 27, 2009 4:49 PM | Report abuse

worldtraveler - what's AW? JB?

Posted by: ZmanVA | February 27, 2009 4:58 PM | Report abuse

Zman: my assumption is AW = (in)AccuWeather and JB = Joe Bastardi.

Posted by: hobbes9 | February 27, 2009 5:06 PM | Report abuse

HPC for Day 3: EXPECT THIS CLOSED LOW TO LIFT DUE NORTH OR NERLY AND THE STREAM TO THE NORTH TO SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY PARTIALLY PHASE. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE 500 MB LOW LIFTING THROUGH WRN NC/SWRN VA TO THE MID-ATL COAST AND AN INCREASE IN HEAVY OVERRUNNING POTENTIALLY BANDING SNOW FROM THE MID-ATL COAST UP THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND COAST.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 27, 2009 5:07 PM | Report abuse

Thanks hobbes9..

Posted by: ZmanVA | February 27, 2009 5:08 PM | Report abuse

I will believe the snow when I see it accumulating on my driveway.

Posted by: hobbes9 | February 27, 2009 5:09 PM | Report abuse

I've got to hand it to Joe Bastardi for making such a gutsy call so early, but this could easily blow up in his face. JB is the weather equivalent of the former baseball player Dave Kingman who would either hit a home run or strikeout.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | February 27, 2009 5:22 PM | Report abuse

CWG - agreed. Just find it interesting that both he and HM have been burned over and over (and over) again this winter but now willing to make such a gutsy call so early. One final 'hurrah' before the curtain falls on winter?

Posted by: worldtraveler | February 27, 2009 5:32 PM | Report abuse

A majority of JB's fanbase is in the I95... he certainly does not want to be left in the cold should a storm actually hit us. 6-12 is pretty bold (or silly) at this point, though it is certainly a possibility should all come together correctly.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 27, 2009 5:35 PM | Report abuse

I will only believe when I see.

Posted by: manassasmissy | February 27, 2009 6:15 PM | Report abuse

JB went 6-12?! Thats gutsy indeed. I don't even thing you could use a valid meteorological technique to come up with that with what I'm seeing.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 27, 2009 6:19 PM | Report abuse

Henry Margusity has a map of where snow potential is...DC is not in his zone, which is mostly south and east of here...My Accuweather ap. on my I-Touch says .50 inches of precip through Sunday, all in the form of rain. BTW, shouldn't storms be called spring storms starting Sunday...?

Posted by: steske | February 27, 2009 6:35 PM | Report abuse

Brian,

I disagree that with your that JB does not have valid meteorological technique. In his column he explicitly spells out why he believes what he is thinking. Go read his column and then tell me he doesn't have valid reasons. Just doesn't seem like valid criticism.

Posted by: mciaram1 | February 27, 2009 7:05 PM | Report abuse

this is very exciting. just the kind of thing i was hoping for.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 27, 2009 7:26 PM | Report abuse

MC,
He may very well have his own technique, and based on some of his forecasts, he must. I can't read what that might be however because I don't subscribe to accuweather, so I'll have to take your word on it. But he makes a call and sticks to it, and he's good at what he does. Still, for any of our area, outside of the mts, to sniff 6-12", things must come together in a way that can only be described as a long shot. I'd put 6" as our loft ceiling for this one.(And you can read my official forecast on Sunday!)

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 27, 2009 8:18 PM | Report abuse

The first wave (saturday night/sunday morning) is looking pretty good on the latest NAM. While i doubt local areas will see much, i could see the high spots of western VA and WV getting a good 3-7 inches out of the first wave. The second low (sunday night/monday) is still just a bit east of the metro area. Just a slight shift NW will put DC in the sweetspot.

No matter what track the 2nd low ends up taking, it looks to be an impressive storm for someone.

Posted by: jfva | February 27, 2009 9:47 PM | Report abuse

What the...? I turn my back for a day - one day! - and a snowstorm sneaks up on us?

Posted by: --sg | February 27, 2009 9:49 PM | Report abuse

"sweetspot" - nice...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 27, 2009 10:24 PM | Report abuse

The GFS model continues trending toward a sizeable snowstorm in the area for 'wave 2'.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 27, 2009 11:38 PM | Report abuse

Ian, just wanted to say as a relatively new reader of easternwx (but a longtime reader of capwx) how much fun it is to see you posting over there. Very hard to sort through the chaff sometimes (especially for an amateur like me) and it's nice to see the pros participate as much as they do, you in particular...especially on nights like tonight!

Posted by: mookie2 | February 28, 2009 1:29 AM | Report abuse

Lou Scally (NBC25) is predicting just an inch or two for Saturday night.

Posted by: spgass1 | February 28, 2009 2:33 AM | Report abuse

Thanks mookie2, good to hear. :)

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2009 1:35 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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