Network News

X My Profile
View More Activity
The new Washington
Post Weather website
Jump to CWG's
Latest Full Forecast
Outside now? Radar, temps
and more: Weather Wall
Follow us on Twitter (@capitalweather) and become a fan on Facebook
Posted at 11:55 AM ET, 02/28/2009

Sunday-Monday Storm: Significant Snow Possible

By Jason Samenow

Some light sleet/snow tonight, low impact

* Winter Storm Watch Sunday afternoon through Monday morning *

Our preliminary D.C. area snow forecast for Sunday Night/Monday: 3-6" with greater amounts east (could change up or down) | Our Full Forecast

Next Chances of Accumulating Snow:
Storm #1: Saturday Evening-Early Sunday morning
Storm #2: Sunday Night/Monday
Probability of Accumulating Snow:
Storm #1: 40%
Storm #2: 70%
Most Likely Potential Impact:
Storm #1:
Storm #2:

I'm going to focus on Storm #2 here, as it has the potential to be much more meaningful. For details on Storm #1, which should give us a mix of sleet and snow tonight but with little accumulation, read our full forecast through early next week.

Storm #2 has the potential to be our biggest storm of this season and the biggest since February 2006, when a storm dropped 8-12" (with locally higher amounts) across the region. As described in our full forecast, snow may begin mid-to-late Sunday afternoon. It could become heavy in the evening. The other potential factor with this storm will be the wind. As this storm intensifies Sunday night, winds could increase to 15-30 mph causing some blowing snow Monday morning.

However, there remains a slight possibility Sunday's storm will track too far to our east to produce significant accumulations in the metro area.

Keep reading for more information and a look at accumulation potential.

A lot of ingredients will be in place for a significant snowfall. As the storm moves up the coast from the south, we should have plenty of cold air feeding in from the north to keep precipitation in the form of snow. (If the storm track were to shift significantly west, that cold air supply could erode and result in mixed precipitation, but I think chances of that happening are low.) And, the storm will be quite energetic and able to tap moisture from the Atlantic. The key question is the storm track.

Many of our current models suggest the storm will take an offshore track up the coast, but close enough to the coast to throw back heavy precipitation our way -- and especially the closer to the coast you go. However, some model guidance tracks the low far enough offshore that most of the precipitation falls south and east of I-95. If this happens (25% chance or so), it would greatly reduce our snowfall totals.

hit.jpg
Two model predictions for the storm Sunday night. The model on the left (the GFS) shows heavy precipitation over the metro area whereas the model on the right shows most of the precipitation to our southeast (the NAM)

The above maps show two models -- one tracks the storm close enough to give us heavy snow, the other takes the storm far enough to sea that the D.C. area just gets grazed (although places like Richmond and Salisbury would still get significant snows).

march1_09-snowprobs-noaa.jpg
Snowfall probabilities for Sunday/Monday from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

snow-prob-030109.jpg
CWG snow possibilities for the Sunday-Monday storm.

My confidence is growing that we'll get measurable snow in the D.C. metro area, and I would not be surprised if some parts of our region receive heavy snow and accumulations exceeding 6". Right now, the heaviest snow looks like it may occur just east of I-95, where some places could receive double-digit totals. I agree with the areas highlighted for the potential for heavy snow in the graphic above by NOAA.

For the immediate metro area, my first best accumulation estimate is 3-6"... although that could easily change. The range of possibilities I've assessed is shown to the right.

Confidence: Medium

We'll have another update this evening... and updates throughout the day tomorrow.

The Snow Lover's Crystal Ball appears when the potential exists for accumulating snow beyond 24 to 36 hours.

By Jason Samenow  | February 28, 2009; 11:55 AM ET
Categories:  Snow Lover's Crystal Ball  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Forecast: Potential Winter Storm Sunday to Monday
Next: Update: Mix Tonight, Bigger Snows Tomorrow PM

Comments

Sounds great - living in Odenton - 20 miles from the Bay, I might finally be in the upper end of the range! Off to flush some ice cubes down the toilet!

Posted by: snowlover | February 28, 2009 12:07 PM | Report abuse

The GFS 72 hr composite snowfall map has DC w/ 8-10 in. Why are you predicting only 3-6?

Posted by: worldtraveler | February 28, 2009 12:12 PM | Report abuse

it's official! i'm in "it's gonna snow" mode. i want to thank my wife in advance for my manic state over the next few days. bring it on! make it deep!

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 28, 2009 12:13 PM | Report abuse

i meant to say "thank my wife in advance for putting up with my manic state..."

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 28, 2009 12:15 PM | Report abuse

When will WSWings most likely come out?

Posted by: snowlover | February 28, 2009 12:28 PM | Report abuse

@snowlover I'm just taking a guess here, but I would imagine that any warnings would probably not occur for another 24 hours or more. Probably in tomorrow's late afternoon forecast.

Posted by: Josh-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2009 12:38 PM | Report abuse

I would surmise that the NWS will wait for the next 00z guidance package tonight around 10-ish before putting out any warnings. The way things are looking, they'll definately be going up for some of us.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2009 12:51 PM | Report abuse

Yes, if I had to guess, i would think that if the storm still looks good, then warnings would go up in the morning tomorrow and not wait for the mid-afternoon package, especially since it may already be snowing by then.

Posted by: timjuliani | February 28, 2009 1:02 PM | Report abuse

New Euro looks like a major snowstorm. Maybe JB not so kooky afterall?

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2009 1:05 PM | Report abuse

Ok - You guys are seriously getting my hopes up now!! Bring on a monster!! What time do the next model runs (GFS/NAM) come out;6:00?

Posted by: snowlover | February 28, 2009 1:09 PM | Report abuse

So, is this going to be worth the 3 year wait? I surely hope so! I want snow-pack

Posted by: JJones-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2009 1:19 PM | Report abuse

Now that I'm unemployed, a snow day isn't such a freakout anymore LOL

When can I tell the kids???

Posted by: betterbegood4 | February 28, 2009 1:21 PM | Report abuse

Im confused. Tonight will probably be nothing...right? When is storm 2? How much dp you expect. 3-7? WOW! crazy how its 65 degrees one day and snowing the next.

Posted by: hoyafan516 | February 28, 2009 1:22 PM | Report abuse

Guys, are we looking at the same potential (3-6") for accumulations in the Stafford/Fredericksurg area?

Posted by: david_in_stafford | February 28, 2009 1:24 PM | Report abuse

Most importantly (for those further west) the Euro has backed precip west a bit more. IAD looking at about 3/4" precip, DCA closer to 1"+. Looking like 6-12 not out of the question on this run.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2009 1:29 PM | Report abuse

With the Euro now in agreement with the other models are you ready to up your snowfall prediction?

Posted by: worldtraveler | February 28, 2009 1:29 PM | Report abuse

I'm cautiously optimistic we will have a real snow event... CAUTIOUS being the word. There has been too many let downs this winter!

Posted by: Snowlover2 | February 28, 2009 1:30 PM | Report abuse

Ha! Beat me to it!

Posted by: worldtraveler | February 28, 2009 1:30 PM | Report abuse

Man, I am hoping the next update has 4 Flakes -that would just be awesome! I am hoping the final forecast is for 8-12"+

Posted by: snowlover | February 28, 2009 1:35 PM | Report abuse

i am so thrilled that rather than the usual chorus of "the latest models don't look good" and so forth we've had this year, i'm hearing the models are lining up in favor of heavy snow. i love the big numbers being tossed about - even by the CWG pros. wow. THINK SNOW!

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 28, 2009 1:36 PM | Report abuse

Will there be enough of a break/warmth/sun to melt tonite's precip during the early part of tomorrow, before #2 gets going? When would we see precip begin for #2?

Posted by: weathergrrl | February 28, 2009 1:36 PM | Report abuse

Sigh...still holding out hope that NAM is right on this one.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 28, 2009 1:38 PM | Report abuse

Your kind isn't welcome around here ThinkSpring!

Posted by: JTF- | February 28, 2009 1:41 PM | Report abuse

What about the district itself? I'm in Adams Morgan and am hoping and praying that this storm isn't another disappointment.

Posted by: BruinGirl2001 | February 28, 2009 1:42 PM | Report abuse

Too bad, JTF. :)

I have a very important meeting Monday morning. Worked very hard last week on this project and I don't need Mother Nature messin' that up for me.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 28, 2009 1:43 PM | Report abuse

weathergrrl, there won't be much sun or "warmth" tomorrow, but probably enough temperatures above freezing to help melt off whatever falls tonight at least a little. Round 2 looks to be on the doorstep to the south during the afternoon tomorrow and moving in about by evening.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2009 1:43 PM | Report abuse

Ian(CWG) - You mentioned that the Euro is showing 3/4" at IAD and 1"+ at DCA, what about BWI? Thx!

Posted by: snowlover | February 28, 2009 1:53 PM | Report abuse

So I haven't checked this blog in a month, and I come back to this great news. Needless to say, I'm FREAKING out!

Posted by: PeterBethesda | February 28, 2009 1:53 PM | Report abuse

snowlover, BWI is also 1"+.. maybe even a bit more than DCA. This run of the Euro clobbers I95.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2009 1:58 PM | Report abuse

Ian - Just keep it that way :)

Posted by: snowlover | February 28, 2009 2:00 PM | Report abuse

Cold and cloudy here in Shaw/Logan... don't freak out about the winter storm just yet. We'll keep you posted on the realistic outlook for impact as the day and evening progresses.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2009 2:00 PM | Report abuse

*doing a quiet, but vigorous snow dance...*

Posted by: manassasmissy | February 28, 2009 2:06 PM | Report abuse

CWG - When should we expect a snow map?

Posted by: snowlover | February 28, 2009 2:10 PM | Report abuse

Current temp. in Burke: 42.3 with overcast skies.

Old Man Winter has finally decided to visit us this winter. Everyone should do a snow dance/ritual right now. I'm so excited. Bring on the snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: Yellowboy | February 28, 2009 2:20 PM | Report abuse

So Loudoun County might not get hit hard? I hope so... I am DONE with winter and it's nasty temps and wind and snow chances.

Posted by: rumbly45 | February 28, 2009 2:45 PM | Report abuse

So, er, my flight out of IAD Monday morning is looking less and less like it will actually get off the ground on time is what I am hearing? LOL.

Maybe I should put out warnings to my co-workers who will be meeting me in KC not to wait on me...I might be late. LOL

Posted by: ksrgatorfn1 | February 28, 2009 2:49 PM | Report abuse

I must say, I've been watching the weather in this area very closely for about 15 years (I was even a Bob Ryan weather watcher for a time)... and I don't think I've ever seen a winter storm with the bullseye being DC in terms of accumulations. I also don't think I've ever seen Annapolis get more snow than the northern or western suburbs.

So, I think we'll either see a trend west, or a trend east. I'm hoping for the former.

Posted by: markinva | February 28, 2009 2:53 PM | Report abuse

Mark -

It happens sometimes. Remember 1/25/00?
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/images/Jan25-00.gif

Posted by: jpl1019 | February 28, 2009 3:01 PM | Report abuse

@worldtraveler

We don't just look at the GFS output in making our forecasts. We look at all the models, consider their biases and trends, climatology, seasonal patterns/trends, etc. I went with 3-6" as a conservative first estimate...but have suggested there's decent chance it will be more than that.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2009 3:07 PM | Report abuse

New NAM (previous holdout) looks much better (and inline with majority of models now) in the area if you are a snowlover. Precip has backed west from previous runs.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2009 3:08 PM | Report abuse

@snowlover

We'll have a map maybe tonight, and for sure tomorrow morning.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2009 3:09 PM | Report abuse

Mark: Besides Jan 2000 mentioned above, I'm pretty certain the February 2003 storm also strongly impacted the eastern portions of our area. BWI had much more snow (28 inches) than DCA and IAD.

If anything, the eastern areas are better positioned to receive the bounties of Nor'easters since the moisture is heavier to the east. Usually the limiting factor is temperature.

Posted by: JTF- | February 28, 2009 3:10 PM | Report abuse

so CapWx:

When do you start to use the 'M' (mixing) word in your forecast?

Just kidding (hopefully!)

Posted by: jpl1019 | February 28, 2009 3:10 PM | Report abuse

When March arrives I'm ready 4 spring, but I won't turn down a big snow in 1st of March. I'll til later 2night b4 making any predictions on amounts, I've lived in this area over 50 yrs & have seem 2 many sure things disappear. Sure would have loved this in mid Jan.

Posted by: VaTechBob | February 28, 2009 3:16 PM | Report abuse

jpl1019: i was just wondering that.

CWG: can you say if/when this storm will change over to rain/sleet/freezing rain? or are we likely to be cold enough that it stays all snow?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 28, 2009 3:19 PM | Report abuse

Guys, I am a federal contractor at the NIH and I hate my job. I would be forever indebted to you if you contacted Mother Nature and asked her to dump as much snow as possible on us. Can you do that for me?

Posted by: authorofpoetry | February 28, 2009 3:22 PM | Report abuse

One more thing: my wife and I got a babysitter for tonight. We live in Rockville and plan on going to dinner around 8. Will we make it before the change over?

Posted by: authorofpoetry | February 28, 2009 3:23 PM | Report abuse

I hate to go against wishful thinking, but I'm of an opinion now that snow lovers hopes will again be dashed.

While we will probably double our measly 2" for the entire season thus far, I personally (not representing CWG "official" forecasts) do not see much more than a 10% chance of reaching even the 2-5" category in the Metro region.

I base this on this mornings Short Range Ensemble Forecast system
(SREF) system.

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2009 3:26 PM | Report abuse

STEVE!!!!!!!!! Seriously - tell me your joking!

Posted by: snowlover | February 28, 2009 3:35 PM | Report abuse

Steve: You are speaking about event #1 (tonight), correct?

Posted by: jpl1019 | February 28, 2009 3:38 PM | Report abuse

jpl1019-

I was actually down in Blacksburg in the year 2000... It probably didn't even snow that day so maybe that's why it slipped my memory. Thanks for showing me that storm though, I learned something!

Posted by: markinva | February 28, 2009 3:40 PM | Report abuse

snowlover

I wish I were. Believe me it's extremely difficult for a snowlover (that's me too) to not be biased in favor of hope over reality in forecasting. But, honesty requires objectivity, and that's what I'm going on now.

BUT, of course, I could be wrong, and hope I am!!

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2009 3:42 PM | Report abuse

Steve--the SREF is old news and from 4 am (9z) this morning. The latest run of every single major operational model (from 7 am and 1 pm) would suggest 6" or more (ECWMF, GEM, NAM, GFS, and even soon to be defunct the NGM). Furthermore, most of 12z GFS ensemble members support significant snow accumulations. It's not to say things could trend in the opposite direction but the SREF has no support from the other models.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2009 3:42 PM | Report abuse

I think i speak for everyone when I say that Steve just about broke my heart! HAHA.

Posted by: justin1013471 | February 28, 2009 3:46 PM | Report abuse

i vote for jason's assessment.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 28, 2009 3:46 PM | Report abuse

Well, I will take all of the major models in our favor, and hope for the best!

Posted by: snowlover | February 28, 2009 3:49 PM | Report abuse

Jason, I'll stay out of this rather than discuss (debate) differences. As I said, hope I'm (SREF + other reasoning) is wrong.

What will be will be

Signing off 'till Mon AM)

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2009 3:49 PM | Report abuse

CapWx,

Looking at the onset of storm #2, it appears we may have issues with precipitation type. Could this storm start out as a mix before the column thickens and changes everything over to all snow?

Posted by: pjdunn1 | February 28, 2009 3:53 PM | Report abuse

Not sure why Steve feels the need to make a prediction based on old information and then when Jason calls him on it, Steve signs off until Monday and says he doesn't want to debate. Not sure what the point of that it

Posted by: mickb1 | February 28, 2009 3:59 PM | Report abuse

Oh my God!!!! Snow!!!! Quick, stock up on beer, bread, milk and toilet paper!!!!!!!


We may never dig out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: MajorConfusion | February 28, 2009 4:00 PM | Report abuse

The new NWS forecasts are slightly comical.... up to 1" in DC and little to no accum for IAD tomorrow night.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2009 4:00 PM | Report abuse

NWS update is pretty conservitive if I must say! "FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE PSBL SUN NGT B4 PSBLY CHG TO IP
AND THE WHOLE THING IS OVER MON MRNG" They honestly sound like someone just craped on there parade lol. While they are good, but sometimes they make me wonder. While I understand there is bust potentail here but the wording they use almost sounds like we won't even make warning criteria. I don't know maybe its just me. One thing is for sure, there will be a sharp cut off with snow accumulations.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | February 28, 2009 4:05 PM | Report abuse

clintonportis17 and others:
when you say "sharp cutoff" do you mean areas a few miles apart would see dramatically different snow amounts?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 28, 2009 4:12 PM | Report abuse

walter-in-fallschurch:

Id say anywhere from 25+ miles.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | February 28, 2009 4:14 PM | Report abuse

so are you saying 25 miles is the difference btwn being in the bullseye and getting nothing?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 28, 2009 4:20 PM | Report abuse

Walter i think he is saying that you could have one area receive 6" of snow and another area 25 miles west receive only a couple incehs

Posted by: snowlover | February 28, 2009 4:23 PM | Report abuse

I would not say "getting nothing" but with this type of storm yes, there will be sharp declines in certain areas. I live in Culpeper Va and the chances of 6+ for ex will greatly increase as I head straight east. I'm just useing those amounts and locations for ex. Although I find it very hard to believe that southern areas won't see any kind of sleet mixing in!

Posted by: clintonportis17 | February 28, 2009 4:26 PM | Report abuse

I'll believe it when I see it.

Posted by: altruisticone | February 28, 2009 4:28 PM | Report abuse

Please help me so I don't freak - supposed to take Amtrak from BWI to NYC monday 11am arriving 2pm on Monday.

Will we be OK departing? travelling? arriving?

Stressing . . .

Posted by: Post43 | February 28, 2009 4:29 PM | Report abuse

snowlover:

said it pretty well. I don't know how large the cut off will be but IMO 25+ might be right.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | February 28, 2009 4:30 PM | Report abuse

thanks. i guess for once i'm glad i'm inside the beltway.

i just looked at the NWS forcast via the link at the upper left of this page and they're calling for a few tenths of an inch for sunday night?! are we delusional or are they?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 28, 2009 4:31 PM | Report abuse

Abandon your cars early!

Posted by: slim2 | February 28, 2009 4:32 PM | Report abuse

When does the next model data come out?

Posted by: snowlover | February 28, 2009 4:36 PM | Report abuse

@walter

The NWS forecast you're referring to I believe is computer generated and I'm not sure what all the inputs are for that. If you read their latest Winter Storm Watch discussion, they talk about "several inches"...

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2009 4:36 PM | Report abuse

walter-in-fallschurch:

I don't know whats up with the latest NWS update. I said before thers certainly bust potential here but they sound like they woke up on the wrong side of the bed. I have lived here for a long time and I know at least the NWS in sterling had been known to make radical chances in a short period of time so who knows. Can't remember the last time I said this but I wish I was east of I95 lol.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | February 28, 2009 4:37 PM | Report abuse

snowlover


18z GFS is running

Posted by: clintonportis17 | February 28, 2009 4:40 PM | Report abuse

Clinton - the way things look right now what would you say i should expect in the way of accumulation with storm #2? I live in Odenton which is about 20 miles west of the Bay, or about 8 miles South of BWI.Thx.

Posted by: snowlover | February 28, 2009 4:44 PM | Report abuse

when will the next update be?

Posted by: samdman95 | February 28, 2009 4:49 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: Snowman_In_Herndon | February 28, 2009 4:49 PM | Report abuse

I agree with altruisticone. We've had so many false alarms this season (and no significant snowstorms in this area since 2003), that I remain a skeptic.

I'll believe it when I see it.

Posted by: novatom1 | February 28, 2009 4:50 PM | Report abuse

snowlover

I have no idea right now. IMO to early to make that call. I'm waiting until tonight.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | February 28, 2009 4:50 PM | Report abuse

Jason - what's the latest on tonight's weather? This my kids will have Hebrew School tomorrow AM in North Potomac?? Keep up the good work.

Posted by: someonelikeyou | February 28, 2009 4:52 PM | Report abuse

18Z NAM and GFS both look good with 10" of snow (assuming a 10:1 ratio). The cutoff on the west side, however, is EXTREMELY sharp and the slightest shift to the east could leave us with nothing, or close to it.

Also interesting is that the GFS shows Jacksonville and Gainesville, FL getting up to 5 inches of snow.

Posted by: bdeco | February 28, 2009 4:57 PM | Report abuse

Current temp. in Burke: 39.2 with overcast skies.

Here are two good websites for computer models:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/greenstein/models.html

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Posted by: Yellowboy | February 28, 2009 4:59 PM | Report abuse

Still 2 early 2 b trying 2 guess snow amounts or lack of, need 2 get within 12hrs 4 any sort of decent prediction. Most times the precip. totals r overstated. My early call is 1-12" 4 the DC area. Should b able 2 get a better idea by noon Sun. I would suggest, expect the worse & hope 4 the best. Chance on 1" or less 35%.

Posted by: VaTechBob | February 28, 2009 5:02 PM | Report abuse

If there were blocking upstream this would have historic potential, but the relatively quick movement would seem to limit that. I remember 1996 being up in Coastal CT and it started snowing at 11 a.m. Sunday, and finished on Monday afternoon.
All that said, I'm not going to argue with a Miller A coming up the coast, or frankly, getting anything more than our previous record this year of a couple inches!

Posted by: timjuliani | February 28, 2009 5:04 PM | Report abuse

With the 18z NAM now on board and the 18z GFS only drying the western extent a little over the 12z west shift, with support from other models, it is a safe bet that the DC region is likely facing the most significant snowfall in quite a while.

The central Shenandoah is under the threat of 1-3 inches tonight. Nearly everyone is under the gun for 4-8 or more inches of snow Sunday night into Monday.

KEEP YOUR FINGERS CROSSED !!!!

Posted by: AugustaJim | February 28, 2009 5:11 PM | Report abuse

Don't count your chickens b4 they hatch or the snow flakes b4 they fall. At least the potential 4 a good snow is there.

Posted by: VaTechBob | February 28, 2009 5:17 PM | Report abuse

CWG's Steve T. and Jason---Keep up the dueling forecast debate! We find it fascinating and enlightening for all us meteorology junkies! How do you expect us to learn if you sign off till Monday? Weather patterns are tricky, we know that.

Reasoned debate is good.

Posted by: mwelsh | February 28, 2009 5:37 PM | Report abuse

When is the next CWG update? Thx.

Posted by: snowlover | February 28, 2009 5:37 PM | Report abuse

Light rain and sleet is beginning to fall at my place with 35 degrees at 5:30.

Regarding the threat late tomorrow into Monday. The 12z and 18z model suite is giving great support, but....the demarcation line will be very sharp. A slight shift to the east will spoil everything. The 00z runs will be critical to maintaining this support. They will be available as we approach the midnight hour.

Posted by: AugustaJim | February 28, 2009 5:38 PM | Report abuse

Current temp. in Burke: 37.6 with overcast skies.

Wow! Over 90 comments so far on this one post!

Posted by: Yellowboy | February 28, 2009 5:40 PM | Report abuse

Some computer modeling is suggesting temperatures possibly as low as the single digits across the area on Tuesday morning! Wow.

Posted by: Josh-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2009 5:41 PM | Report abuse

mickb1 said: "Not sure why Steve feels the need to make a prediction based on old information and then when Jason calls him on it, Steve signs off until Monday and says he doesn't want to debate. Not sure what the point of that it

Posted by: mickb1 | February 28, 2009 3:59 PM"

Yeah, we don't get that, either. Forecasting is a tricky science; climate patterns are fickle and flighty. Stay around and teach us, Steve T. What's up?

Posted by: mwelsh | February 28, 2009 5:42 PM | Report abuse

I hate to go against wishful thinking, but I'm of an opinion now that snow lovers hopes will again be dashed.

While we will probably double our measly 2" for the entire season thus far, I personally (not representing CWG "official" forecasts) do not see much more than a 10% chance of reaching even the 2-5" category in the Metro region.

I base this on this mornings Short Range Ensemble Forecast system
(SREF) system.


Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2009 3:26 PM

-------------------------------------------

Kill the messenger!

Posted by: waterfrontproperty | February 28, 2009 5:45 PM | Report abuse

For those of us who despise winter, next weekend looking much better. Spring trying to make its appearance then.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | February 28, 2009 5:51 PM | Report abuse

Folks--Just published a new post here.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | February 28, 2009 6:04 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
RSS Feed
Subscribe to The Post

© 2012 The Washington Post Company