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Posted at 6:00 PM ET, 02/27/2009

Winter's Not Done Yet: A Pair of Weekend Storms

By Dan Stillman

* Mild Showers Today, Then Winter Returns: Our Full Forecast *

Next Chances of Accumulating Snow:
Storm #1: Saturday Evening-Early Sunday morning
Storm #2: Sunday Night/Monday
Probability of Accumulating Snow:
Storm #1: 40% (D.C. and S&E); 50% (N&W of D.C.)
Storm #2: 30%
Most Likely Potential Impact (both storms):

Don't be fooled by today's spring-like showers with highs near and above 60. Winter is back this weekend and into early next week with cold air and a complicated pair of potentially wintry storms. The centers of both storms are expected to track from southwest to northeast along a cold front stalled to our south (this is the front that's coming through the area today with some scattered showers, and behind it the colder air).

Keep reading for details on the potential impact of both storms...

STORM #1

Storm #1 is looking more and more like it will dump a decent amount of precipitation across the area, starting with some rain Saturday afternoon, and then changing to a snow/sleet/rain mix (touch of freezing rain north and west of D.C.) for Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

D.C. and points south and east could see some snow/sleet accumulation (up to about an inch or so, we're thinking) but probably mainly just on grassy areas, cars, sidewalks, and some untreated side streets since Saturday night lows right right around 32 degrees may not be cold enough to overcome relatively warmer pavement temperatures.

Areas north and west of D.C. are likely to get a couple degrees colder Saturday night, and that may be just cold enough to create the potential for up to a few inches of snow/sleet accumulation -- up to around 1-2" for Montgomery & Fairfax counties, as high as 2-4" for Loudoun & Frederick counties -- even coating some roadways (especially untreated ones).

Confidence: Low-Medium

STORM #2

After a break in precipitation through much of the day Sunday, storm #2 threatens for Sunday night and Monday. With this one, precipitation would likely be primarily in the form of snow. And, temperatures would almost definitely be cold enough for accumulation. But -- there's a significant chance (around 50-50 as it looks now) that much of this storm's precipitation misses the D.C. area to the east.

Confidence: Low

The Snow Lover's Crystal Ball appears when the potential exists for accumulating snow beyond 24 to 36 hours.

By Dan Stillman  | February 27, 2009; 6:00 PM ET
Categories:  Snow Lover's Crystal Ball  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Forecast: Mild Showers, Then Winter Returns
Next: PM Update: Waiting on Weekend Storminess

Comments

Somehow I just knew it was too soon to close the door on Winter .... it just started pouring out here. Looking forward to one last blast of winter, then bring it, Spring!

Posted by: weathergrrl | February 27, 2009 11:54 AM | Report abuse

omg. a snow-lover's crystal ball! i'm getting my boots and shovel ready.

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 27, 2009 12:04 PM | Report abuse

There are a few things that remind me about the weather today that lead up to the SuperStorm of 1993. The week leading up to the Super Storm was mild from what I recall. It was that Friday afternoon when news started to break about a potenial massive storm. While I don't think this storm holds that potential I do think we will need to watch the Sunday-Monday time closely for a Sunday suprise! Something tells me that some areas will see overall storm totals of 3-6 inches with isolated 4-8 inches east and south of D.C.

RAINMAN!

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | February 27, 2009 12:08 PM | Report abuse

OH MY GOD! Snow Lover's Crystal Ball?! That's become like a Virgin Mary Sighting these last few years...

Posted by: prayforsnowDC | February 27, 2009 12:51 PM | Report abuse

WHOO HOO!!!!! SLCB!!!!!! A nice Friday surprise :)

Posted by: Snowlover2 | February 27, 2009 1:51 PM | Report abuse

It seems that the Euro is causing quite a stir that the DCA/BWI area may be the JACKPOT for this snow!!! 10+ ???(as of this model run anyway)

check out this thread....
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=191592&st=780

maybe I'm getting a little two excited here, but I really want to take my son's sledding in more than 2" of snow for once in their lives!!

Posted by: jamie7 | February 27, 2009 2:05 PM | Report abuse

jamie7 -

Be careful what you wish for...!

Posted by: waterfrontproperty | February 27, 2009 2:12 PM | Report abuse

I will not get excited. I will not get excited. I will not get excited.

If I stay determined that our winter is over and spring is on it's way, does that mean that we'll get snow? ;-)

Posted by: kallieh | February 27, 2009 2:31 PM | Report abuse

@jamie7

It's one model and one model run. And it doesn't suggest 10"+... but it does indicate potential for our biggest event of the season (over 2"). We should remain skeptical until other models come aboard and converge on a solution

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | February 27, 2009 2:42 PM | Report abuse

@CWG:
is this for real? or are jamie7 and rainman just messin' with me?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | February 27, 2009 2:43 PM | Report abuse

I feel like a dog that's been kicked too much. I'll believe it when I see it.

Posted by: mchristinaw | February 27, 2009 4:06 PM | Report abuse

I'll keep checking in this weekend, but it sounds like more dreaming for snow than anything else at this point.
Deja Vu all over again (Yogism)...:-)

Posted by: bodyiq | February 27, 2009 4:27 PM | Report abuse

Off and on rain showers here near Baileys Crossroads--unfortunately on a day I had to spend a lot of time on errands and a medical appointment--another anti-Bombo rain conspiracy! [Actually I don't hate all rain, but there are three types I particularly dislike: a) cold rain b) wind-driven rain and c) massive downpours. Seems as though we get far too much of those three types around here, and more often than not when I have major errands or appointments I can't cancel.]

The weekend situation looks interesting--I have a Saturday night dance at Glen Echo and may need to stay past midnight tomorrow. The threat of wintry precipitation between midnight and 6 AM Sunday could influence my decision whether or not to go.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | February 27, 2009 4:34 PM | Report abuse

Hot off the press from Joe Bastadi after anylizing everying: So what is the result here? Well while this in not the final call I believe that it is highly likely that snow amounts between 6 and 12 inches and perhaps as much as 15 center themselves from DC northeastward Sunday pm into Monday night.

Posted by: bgor | February 27, 2009 5:03 PM | Report abuse

That is correct...Bastardi is all over a major storm for the I95 cities Sunday night in to Monday. Says 6 to 10 inches in DC area.

Posted by: bbv91258 | February 27, 2009 10:55 PM | Report abuse

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