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Posted at 9:15 AM ET, 03/ 9/2009

Forecast: Mild Monday, but Slowly Cooling

By Jason Samenow

Wind Advisory Far North Suburbs (map)

* Later: Dueling Springs, and The Moon & Atlantic Hurricanes *


Today: Partly sunny, breezy and mild. 64-68 | Tonight: Partly cloudy. 36-41 Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy. 50-54. | A Look Ahead


The March roller coaster ride continues this week as we generally trend cooler after last week's astonishing warm-up. Still, we start the week off in style with some sun and sixties. Then we yo-yo from the 50s to the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday before settling in the 50s Thursday through the weekend...right about where we should be in early-to-mid March. The dry pattern will continue with just a couple scattered showers possible late Tuesday or Wednesday (and again Saturday?).

Temperatures: Current area temperatures. Powered by Weather Bonk. Map by Google. Hover over and click icons for more info. Click and hold on map to pan. Refresh page to update. See map bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Monday): The cold front last night will drop temperatures 5-10 degrees, but the mid-to-upper 60s is still pretty nice. We'll probably have more sunshine than the last couple days but the sun's warmth will be compromised at times by strong winds from the west at 10 to 20 mph (with some higher gusts). Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Clear to partly cloudy skies will allow temperatures to drop back down into the 30s to near 40 (suburbs-city). A breeze from the north at about 10 mph will make it feel quite brisk. As chilly as it will seem compared to the 50s of the last couple nights, remember we dipped into the single digits and low teens just a week ago. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend.

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Easterly flow off the Atlantic will make for a raw Tuesday. High temperatures will meet resistance in the low 50s under mostly cloudy skies. A few showers are possible (30% chance) as a warm front tries to lift northward late in the day. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: After the warm front passes to our north, a light wind from the south will kick in. The mild wind along with cloud cover will prevent temperatures from dropping a lot -- maybe 5 degrees or so from near 50 to the mid-40s. Confidence: Medium-High


Mild breezes from the south bring a return to the 60s on Wednesday but a cold front passing through the region will threaten with showers and possibly thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Overnight, skies slowly clear as winds shift around to out of the northwest, with lows dropping to near 40. Confidence: Medium-High

As the front that brought Wednesday's showers gets hung up to our south, Canadian high pressure attempts to build into the region Thursday and Friday. That will bring partly sunny and cooler weather both days, with highs 50-55. Overnight Thursday will be cold with lows in the mid-20s to near freezing (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium-High

Late Friday and into the weekend, there's a slight chance that an area of low pressure will develop to the south (along the stalled out front). That could increase cloud cover and even bring some rain (better chance Saturday than Sunday) as it heads northeast. More likely, the sprawling area of high pressure to the west and north will keep us dry, with seasonable highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Confidence: Medium

By Jason Samenow  | March 9, 2009; 9:15 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Dueling Springs: Meteorological vs. Astronomical


is it safe to say that snow for next weekend is no longer a possibility?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | March 9, 2009 8:14 AM | Report abuse

58 degrees, clear and breezy at 8 am.
Jason: Within your opening monologue this morning, you say "The dry pattern will continue".

This "dry pattern" will quickly become the "Headline" in the coming months unless we have a major pattern shift.

I have expressed concern several times during recent months about the lack of precip. It will become painfully obvious to everyone as we move into the growing season. Stream and river flows in my area are only 25 - 50% of normal. Rainfall during the past couple months has generally averaged less than half of normal. The snowfall last week only contained .40 liquid equiv. and part of this simply evaporated.

Posted by: AugustaJim | March 9, 2009 8:31 AM | Report abuse

That is not safe to say.

It does seem safe to say that we do not face a major winter storm, but the GFS is still advertising some frozen precip. especially western areas toward I81.

Posted by: AugustaJim | March 9, 2009 8:35 AM | Report abuse


Agree with Augusta Jim. We mention a slight chance of rain late week into the weekend...but not totally out of the question could be some other type(s) of precip if a storm develops--especially n&w.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | March 9, 2009 9:24 AM | Report abuse

Was a glorious weekend...I have to agree with AugustaJim. I do a fair bit of kayaking on the Potomac and usually the river levels are bankfull through til June. The past few years though the river levels are much lower. This year even more so.

If we don't see a pattern shift, it will become quite apparent to everyone not just us weather-nutters that we are in the midst of strong drought.

Posted by: BritBobinHerndon | March 9, 2009 9:41 AM | Report abuse

Shamrockfest is on Saturday- the first time I actually bought tickets. So if karma has it's way for me hoping for snow all winter long, we'll end up with a foot of snow ;-)

Seriously though, sucks about the rain. Especially if it's cold rain.

Posted by: kallieh | March 9, 2009 10:37 AM | Report abuse

augustajim, cwg:
...but we're not talking any accumulating snow in falls church...? right? sniff...sniff

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | March 9, 2009 11:10 AM | Report abuse

As I've said, Augusta Jim, there always seems to be the threat of rain whenever I have a big dance night scheduled. Nonetheless, it has been rather dry since the remnants of Hanna.

That said, many of these rain forecasts are turning out to be showers that pass to our north and west, leaving many areas along the lower Potomac dry. This seems to be a perennial issue for Washington, D.C. I suspect that it has to do with the storm tracks. Many storms in recent years seem to have followed the Great Lakes/St. Lawrence River storm track and generally our biggest rain threat is with the trailing cold fronts of these systems which either bring us a quick passing shower or nothing at all. Quite a few promising storms in the Midwest pass to our NW leaving us with little or no rain. Chicago had a big rain over the weekend. Only on rare occasions does a development to our south on one of these cold fronts seem to give us a general rain.

Our other source of good rains is tropical systems from the south. These generally don't start until June or July. If this year is going over to El Nino we may not get a tropical system; the chance is diminished.

In the short term we might get a good rain event this coming Sunday. That day is not a dance event day for me at this point, however, and with my luck, it could drag into Monday which is.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | March 9, 2009 12:49 PM | Report abuse

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