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Posted at 3:15 PM ET, 03/ 3/2009

PM Update: Some More Cold Before Moderation

By Ian Livingston

Melting speeds up tomorrow, snow gone late week?

* Successful Forecast With Flaws | Recap/Photos: Washington Snow *

Following a bitterly cold start to the day, temperatures have rebounded this afternoon, but not a whole lot. Highs generally in the upper 20s have helped keep much of the recent snow on the ground, though some melting is occurring in the strengthening March sun. Enjoy it while it lasts, because the white ground will only be a memory in a few days.

March 3 Satellite Shot
Regional snowfall, as seen from space this morning, with sharp cutoff to bare ground northwest of the area. See larger and a comparison from last week. Image courtesy MODIS Today -- CIMSS/SSEC.

Tonight: If you liked last night's temperatures you will be a fan of tonight as well. Temperatures in the 20s this evening will quickly fall after sunset, and lows will range from the upper single digits in the colder suburbs to the mid-teens downtown. Winds will be less of a factor, blowing around 5-10 mph from the northwest.

Tomorrow (Wednesday): Wednesday will feature plenty of sunshine, temperatures rising above freezing and more in the way of melting snow. Remaining snow will help things stay relatively cool as highs mainly reach the mid-30s. Winds will be light and variable, but switching to the southwest late.

See Matt Rogers' full forecast through a warmer weekend.

Climate Facts: Last night, lows dropped toward some of the coldest readings this winter. Baltimore Washington International Airport's 10 degrees was a record low for the date. Still very chilly, National's 14 and Dulles's 13 fell shy of records. While we were consumed with the snowstorm the last few days, February 2009 went down in the books as the driest February ever at National, with only a paltry .35" of precipitation.

Videos with Snow: Already miss watching the snow fall yesterday? Check out the Washington's Winter Wonderland video taken during the morning snowblitz. Kids (and dad's) also enjoyed yesterday's snowfall by doing some sledding in Washington. Finally, despite all the snow, thousands of people gathered at the Capitol to demand climate legislation.

By Ian Livingston  | March 3, 2009; 3:15 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Post Mortem: Successful Forecast With Its Flaws
Next: Forecast: Warming Up, Slowly but Surely


Okay..Snow is gone...We are ready for 60 degree weather, because today is brutal.

Posted by: SA-Town | March 3, 2009 3:29 PM | Report abuse

Wow - how close it was to Leesburg getting NADA! Very lucky indeed!

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | March 3, 2009 4:40 PM | Report abuse

oh CWG swamis...
about what time will temps rise above freezing tomorrow? and about when will they go back below freezing?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | March 3, 2009 5:11 PM | Report abuse

walter, my guess would be somewhere early afternoon -- 12-1ish, then back below around 5 or so for cooler suburbs, later in other places like the city. Tough to say for sure...

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | March 3, 2009 5:25 PM | Report abuse

Now we enter the summer lull until the Snow Lover's Crystal Ball(R)(TM) makes it next appearance! :) Save for the few spurts of activity when severe storms threaten, of course. (I would be interested in knowing the traffic patterns for this site. Are they consistent year round or heavier during the winter?)

Anyways, good job on the snowstorm CapWx. It is very interesting how there were zero negative comments in Jason's post mortem. Very different from the comments this site was receiving two nights ago.

Posted by: JTF- | March 3, 2009 6:41 PM | Report abuse

Well that was a very nice March surprise. Now a couple of SLCB done for the year, REALLY, as alluded above. (I'm trying to get me realistic hat back on, thanks) and also, when is Steve going to say he's sorry and was wrong and also, when is that one blogger going to get us the round of drinks her promised if he was wrong because HE WAS.

Posted by: manassasmissy | March 3, 2009 7:14 PM | Report abuse

Well the GFS ensembles are hinting at a -NAO/-AO/split flow pattern around the 12-15th or so. Big things to look at will be the PNA and NAO. The pattern looks to be in a roller coaster mind-set and develop a very impressive ridge over the west during this time period. We will certainly see some major model swings over the next 3-5 days with the big picture items but it will be interesting to see what the 12z and 00z come up with by this thurs/fri.
IMO I'm not sure we are done with winter just yet. Maybe I'm wrong but I think up until the 15th or so, we shouldnt let our guard down.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | March 3, 2009 7:45 PM | Report abuse

clintonportis17, there are already rumors of the next big March storm hiding behind the coming warmup. I think there's been enough "good" cold air -- the really chilly stuff -- this winter that we might be in the game a little longer than normal... perhaps this past storm was a sign of that to some degree. One other thing about this storm was, at least in the city, the March sun is doing its work. Even with cloudcover and low daytime temps (which will be harder to come by as we move along), roads were able to retain enough heat to keep all the early snow from doing much. We will certainly need a very dynamic system to get a good snow from here out... but March is volatile, so while it might be a long shot you never know.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | March 3, 2009 8:32 PM | Report abuse

Nobody understood the intricancies of the storm two days ago. Not the NWS, CWG or myself. Lets be honest, that doesn't mean anyone was wrong.

That storm was a classic that shamed the present abilities of human understanding.

The CWG is a great resource of info. that shames most rivals.

Posted by: AugustaJim | March 3, 2009 8:58 PM | Report abuse

Thanks Augusta Jim! You're right... it was a complicated storm... And I should mention we really value you as a contributor here :)

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | March 3, 2009 9:05 PM | Report abuse

Ugh, don't tell me these things, not now. The last thing I want to hear is we could be in a colder pattern. I'm ready for spring, and have been ever since we had those two or so days where it reached the 60's.

Posted by: Havoc737 | March 3, 2009 9:18 PM | Report abuse

Don't worry Havoc737, we'll get there... warmer by the weekend! Boy, though, tonight it was very cold when I had to walk a couple miles. Oof that wind. brrr.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | March 3, 2009 10:56 PM | Report abuse

Ian-CapitalWeatherGang: I only had four inches here in Culpeper Va, and it is all but gone except for the shady spots. While the things I mentioned about could come true, I think its a long shot. Every time a -NAO was advertised it was either too late, transient, or it never developed at all. Models predicted this negative anomaly quite a few times and it never panned out. Neutral NAO is possible, but that does little. Even thought its long shot, its still a shot lol. Whatever may come rain/snow, were going to need it because I think it may be a dry spring/summer.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | March 3, 2009 11:47 PM | Report abuse

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