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Posted at 8:00 PM ET, 03/ 1/2009

Steady Snow East, Not Much West

By Jason Samenow

Accumulations may be less than forecast west of I-95

* Winter Storm Warning through 2 p.m. Monday *
* Accumulation Map/Timeline, FAQs, SchoolCast & More *
* CWG on: Twitter & Facebook | Weather Wall | SnowCam | Snow Polls *

Depending on where you live, you may be getting steady, moderate snow, spotty light snow or nothing at all. South and east of the District, snow has been accumulating and continues to. Inside the beltway, there has been light to moderate snow, with accumulation mainly on grassy areas. But, west of the beltway, snow is much more spotty, and in some instances, non-existent.

The heaviest and steadiest snow remains along and east of I-95. This will continue to be the case over the next several hours. An area of snow has developed to the southwest in central Virginia, and that should refresh the snowfall over the next several hours in areas that haven't seen much. And another area of snow in the Carolinas may pivot through the region later tonight, and provide some more snow. The way it looks now, accumulations may be at the lower end of the forecasted range...especially if you live west or northwest of the District.

By Jason Samenow  | March 1, 2009; 8:00 PM ET
Categories:  Updates  
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Next: Snow Attempting Minor Come Back Western Suburbs

Comments

Haymarket at 8:15 pm...34 degrees, zero precipitation. What snow storm???!

Posted by: silencedogoodreturns | March 1, 2009 8:14 PM | Report abuse

Interesting that the NWS update at 7:48 pm still shows 7-9 inches for I95 corridor. I am still hoping...

Posted by: nolagirl67 | March 1, 2009 8:16 PM | Report abuse

I call Bust, at least for here. I went the whole winter not having to gas up the blower. But did today, based on this silly forecast.

The Today Show had more accurate weather, in this case.

Posted by: AndrewRockville | March 1, 2009 8:17 PM | Report abuse

Bust

Posted by: Losercuda | March 1, 2009 8:18 PM | Report abuse

The definition of "forcast" is to tell what will happen in the future. You weather putzes look out a window, report what you see and adjust accordingly. To collect a paycheck for such shoddy work is embarrasing. Hacks.

Posted by: dem4life1 | March 1, 2009 8:21 PM | Report abuse

It has been snowing for hours in Bowie. We are right at freezing and have about 1.5 inches on the deck. Not too much on the road yet.

Posted by: NavyWorker33 | March 1, 2009 8:22 PM | Report abuse

New headline: Media to Paste Region With Another False ALarm!

So which Weather Person made the most accurate call?

Posted by: eor11 | March 1, 2009 8:22 PM | Report abuse

Snow has appeared on radar for some time now and light snow has finally started to reach the ground.

Location: Warren County, VA (east of Front Royal)

Posted by: spgass1 | March 1, 2009 8:23 PM | Report abuse

Um dem4life, if you're giving the definition of something, it really helps if you spell the word correctly.

For your edification, it is spelled "forecast".

Posted by: Curmudgeon4 | March 1, 2009 8:23 PM | Report abuse

This is absolutely ridiculous!!! This is the biggest and most laughable bust I have ever seen in my life. I moved here from Oregon about 6 months ago and I waited patiently through every bust up until this point but I've had it with DC winters. I'm no longer going to get excited about the prospects of a major snowfall until there are several or more inches already on the ground. I lived in Portland and at least if you were issued a WS Warning you got snow. This is just a MAJOR BUST MAJOR BUST MAJOR BUST MAJOR BUST MAJOR BUST MAJOR BUST MAJOR BUST!!!!

Posted by: snowedin1985 | March 1, 2009 8:24 PM | Report abuse

Jeez. Calm down everyone. Capwx has had a pretty good record so far this winter, and this storm is still in its early stages. Even if it comes in on the low end of their range, the fact is they still got it right -- a range is just that: a low end, a middle end, and a high end.

Getting pissy about it doesn't do anyone any good.

Posted by: iammrben1 | March 1, 2009 8:24 PM | Report abuse

This is a bigtime bust in lower Montgomery County. I should have known not to get my hopes up, seems we cant get a decent forecast in this area. Ugh.

Posted by: NattyBo1985 | March 1, 2009 8:25 PM | Report abuse

AAAUUUUGHGGGGGGGGGGGGAHHHHHHH!!!!

(Charlie Brown-like yell of despair)

Posted by: dinergirl | March 1, 2009 8:25 PM | Report abuse

A couple of my own personal observations: first, getting close to 0.75" of snow here in Chevy Chase. That being said, yes, snow has dropped off by about 90% in intensity here and is now just barely flurrying. As the snow's intensity has dropped off, yes, the temperature has crept up a [very minor] amount, from 31.5 to 32 over the past 15ish mins -- agreed that that's not terribly confidence inspiring.

...I for one, however, do believe that not only will the dry slot fill in, but it currently is filling in. It's sometimes helpful to look at different radar angles of projection (i.e., 1.45 degrees ( http://twurl.nl/tj2pae) as opposed to .50 degrees and/or composite instead of base reflectivity) since that area southwest of the LWX radar is (which is generally where the dry slot appears) can sometimes come in a little sparse on imaging; don't know precisely why.

It's true we may have a bit of a lull here -- maybe even for an hour or more -- but I believe by 9 or 9:30 most of us will be seeing at least moderate snow again, and temperatures will quickly drop back down to below freezing levels (if they've crept up to above freezing levels during the lull).

...just my two cents

Posted by: Josh-CapitalWeatherGang | March 1, 2009 8:25 PM | Report abuse

Sounds like a lot of angry people west of I-95 above! I'm liking it on the east side for the time being. :D

Posted by: JTF- | March 1, 2009 8:25 PM | Report abuse

Apaprently all the hot air being blown by Obama, Pelosi and Reid is having an adverse effect on our snowstorm.

Still early, but looking a little underwhelming at this point.

Posted by: lingering_lead | March 1, 2009 8:27 PM | Report abuse

Look at the DDS (Dreaded Dry Slot) on the radar between the isentropic lift and the cutoff! Proof positive that if anything can pimp a big snowstorm in DC, it will. Yeah we'll get a few inches...reminds me of an old joke about why you should never date a weatherman.

Pat Michaels

Posted by: pmichaels1 | March 1, 2009 8:27 PM | Report abuse

Look forward to some nice tap dance routines offered up in the AM by our expert meteorologists while we're getting dressed for work and school.

Posted by: gen_coz | March 1, 2009 8:28 PM | Report abuse

@Dem4life1

Actually, logging on to a message board for the first time and making a comment like that without knowing anything about this site, subject matter or the forecasters is exactly why I can understand your political party. Such a drive by comment is rediculous. This storm has great potential and last I checked nobody here on CW pretends to be psychic or God, so they can't help how the weather plays out.

In 4 years of being a daily reader of this site I have never once seen them declare themselves experts, rather a bunch of guys who do this as a hobby. For somebody who CLEARLY couldn't predict weather if your life depended on i, I would suggest you keep your comments to yourself, or back on your CNN comment board.

Posted by: TheMot | March 1, 2009 8:28 PM | Report abuse

I want some snow! Silver Spring near the Metro station appears to be running dry.

Posted by: Lindemann777 | March 1, 2009 8:28 PM | Report abuse

My updated forecast:

1.5 inches

The snow stopped here in TkPk.

Posted by: SnowMonsterDC | March 1, 2009 8:28 PM | Report abuse

New headline: Media to Paste Region With Another False ALarm!

So which Weather Person made the most accurate call?

====

Dunno. It might help to WAIT FOR FRAKKING RESULTS, 'TARD!

Posted by: mason08 | March 1, 2009 8:28 PM | Report abuse

The problem with weather is that it is unpredictable, and the fact that we have a regional forecast group with a website at WaPo doesn't make them any more accurate than the data from NWS plus the local "news" outfits. They all look at the same data, the same models, and all are human beings. Honestly, about 1/2 the people reading this and writing comments could start their own web page and make predictions that are about the same accuracy.

Posted by: AndrewRockville | March 1, 2009 8:28 PM | Report abuse

Just remember, it just takes a couple of intense bands to get to 4-8 inches. Should be an interesting night. I remember 2006 where it took a long time to get going, but when it did, it got fun quick.
Having said that, boy, my older daughter will be disappointed if she doesn't have enough snow to make her first snowman. And my wife is already laughing at me, calling for a no-storm!

Jamie (aka the weather checker)

Posted by: JamieYPotomac | March 1, 2009 8:29 PM | Report abuse

Does the ULL in the Carolinas have enough juice to give us anything? Looking at radar, it really looks to be falling apart. The coastal could steal all the energy. It's happened before.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | March 1, 2009 8:29 PM | Report abuse

dem4life is a butthead... do you feel better about yourself now?

Posted by: Alexandria2009 | March 1, 2009 8:30 PM | Report abuse

LOOK - CWG looks at the model data and interprets the data as best as possible. I had my hopes up as much as anybody, but I still think most areas will fall in the low end of the forecasted range. Its not easy to get a forecast within a couple of tenths of liquid precip. Especially when the storm is so dynamic that a 50 mile shift in track could me a difference of 8" and 3"!

Posted by: snowlover | March 1, 2009 8:30 PM | Report abuse

Despite all this non-snowiness, myfoxdc.com reporting Fairfax schools closed tomorrow. No word yet on fcps.edu...

Posted by: Xenon54 | March 1, 2009 8:30 PM | Report abuse

We BETTER have lots of snow tomorrow, because I didn't do the laundry today, thinking I could do it on Snow Day Monday.

I'm going to be pi$$ed if I have to do the laundry after work tomorrow!!!

Posted by: WashingtonDame | March 1, 2009 8:31 PM | Report abuse

no reason to get all worked up. let it play out. all it takes is a little ....push to the west.

Posted by: jrodfoo | March 1, 2009 8:31 PM | Report abuse

You folks in Haymarket, Rockville, Ashburn...Gaithersburg...two things: there are other "DC Metro" areas to the east and south just as far as you are north and west, and the forecast has always called this storm as more about I-95 and to the east. Just because it isn't snowing in your way out neck of the woods to the west, doesn't mean the storm isn't right on track for other areas. Sheesh! My relatives in Charles County have several inches already...and lovin the fact that S and E are finally getting more than N and W.

Posted by: vaguypost | March 1, 2009 8:32 PM | Report abuse

Jamie:

FINALLY some sense. Everyone was calling bust in 2006 at 8pm... even though we got slammed to the east of the city and by the next morning had over a foot.

Coastal storms just aren't always friendly for western burbs.

Posted by: JTF- | March 1, 2009 8:32 PM | Report abuse

Sounds like a lot of angry people west of I-95 above! I'm liking it on the east side for the time being. :D

===

So true. They get spoiled up and over there. :-P

Posted by: mason08 | March 1, 2009 8:34 PM | Report abuse

Still, predicting the low range for Montgomery County to be 4-5 inches seems to be a joke.

I'll be pleasantly surprised if we get an inch here in Wheaton, let alone up in Rockville where I go to school.

Posted by: NattyBo1985 | March 1, 2009 8:35 PM | Report abuse

Yawn. 34 degrees in Centreville, a very minor dusting earlier...no heavy snow in sight...even the lower end of the prediction (4 inches) needs some quick action to become possible by morning.

What a joke. Hey at least the Post got to smear more fear-mongering headlines, and the local media got to do the obligatory, laughable interviews at grocery stores.

Posted by: jollyroger2 | March 1, 2009 8:35 PM | Report abuse

dudes...i've been a Cap Weather reader from the beginning and i don't know that i've witnessed such anger on the boards. yeah, i want snow, too, but it certainly isn't the CWG's fault. and to all you weathercaster-bashers -- unless you know how to do it yourself, you don't know what you're talking about. not many jobs require predicting the future, so ya know -- glass houses, people.

Posted by: dinergirl | March 1, 2009 8:36 PM | Report abuse

So Josh (or anyone) what you are saying is that there is a good chance that the big whole of nothing over central VA will fill in?

Does that mean that the whole is not an "issue" for snowlovers? Or will it reduce precipitation amounts significantly. To my ignorant eye that big hole means no snow! But I of course have no clue.

Thanks for the insight and all the posts.

Posted by: MikeJC | March 1, 2009 8:36 PM | Report abuse

Here are some observations.

First, sun angle does matter. The cloud cover thinned today, temps got much higher than predicted, and temps have stayed at or above freezing for most of the snow event so far.

Second, it appears high pressure to the north was strong enough to supress the precip to the south. The barometer actually rose for a couple of hours right after sunset.

Third, the warm temperatures of the last few days were a factor. The relatively warm ground helped keep the surface temperatures above freezing.

Computer models are a good tool, but they should not be the only thing a forecaster looks at when putting together a forecast, especially at the end of a season.

Posted by: Curmudgeon4 | March 1, 2009 8:37 PM | Report abuse

Here in Olney we had snow from 7-8, and now it has completely stopped. I guess I have to get ready for work after all!

Maybe we'll get something later tonight. Anybody know how much snow the Carolinas got or are getting?

Posted by: celestun100 | March 1, 2009 8:37 PM | Report abuse

"We BETTER have lots of snow tomorrow, because I didn't do the laundry today, thinking I could do it on Snow Day Monday."
--------------
Same here, hope I didn't jinx it :-P Snow still coming down steadily here (Alex. City), still not sticking to any pavements though- at least not that I can tell out of my window overlooking Braddock Rd.

Posted by: kallieh | March 1, 2009 8:37 PM | Report abuse

i think i'm about to cry. i let myself believe...and...aaaarrrggghhhh...

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | March 1, 2009 8:37 PM | Report abuse

Unfortunately the frontogensis is indeed holding well to the east, the dry slot is winning and the CAA is drying us from the north and northwest so that tight gradient will have to be shifted farther east. Still some early AM S+ possible with the 500 core mpassing near us. . .but also more east. Ski Cambridge MD?

Posted by: rtryan1 | March 1, 2009 8:38 PM | Report abuse

Fairfax County schools closed tomorrow. Hopefully PWCS won't be too far behind ;)

We have slush on the sidewalks and about 3/4" on the grass here in Lake Ridge. Snow is currently melting off roof and sliding off cars...

Every fiber of my body is screaming that the end is near with the dry slot, but I'm keeping my confidence in the meteorologists that the end is not near (weather-wise, anyway).

Posted by: weatherdudeVA | March 1, 2009 8:38 PM | Report abuse

Fairfax County cancelled school tomorrow....tonight!

My God, no wonder people around the country laugh their a$$es off at us.

Posted by: Losercuda | March 1, 2009 8:38 PM | Report abuse

Actually, this is not so bad from my point of view. I just feel like I wasted time preparing. But its still less work to "unprepare" than it is to blow and shovel and deal with things.

Posted by: AndrewRockville | March 1, 2009 8:38 PM | Report abuse

Current temp. in Burke: 33.3 with overcast skies.

Here is list of closings from myfoxdc:

Public Schools

Anne Arundel County Schools - CLOSED: CODE RED
Calvert County Schools - CLOSED: CODE RED
Charles County Schools - CLOSED: CODE RED
Fairfax County Schools - CLOSED
King George County Schools - CLOSED
myfoxdc.com - UPDATES ONLINE
Potomac Lighthouse Public Charter - DELAYED 2 HRS
St. Mary's County Schools - CLOSED: CODE 3 FOR EMPLOYEES

Private Schools

Calverton School - CLOSED
Metropolitan Day School - CLOSED
Saint Michael the Archangel HS - CLOSED
The Seed School of Maryland - CLOSED

Colleges

Trinity University - CLOSED

Businesses

City of Manassas Park - OPEN MONDAY: LIBERAL LEAVE

Churches

Antioch Baptist Church - NO EVENING ACTIVITIES

Posted by: Yellowboy | March 1, 2009 8:38 PM | Report abuse

Thank-you to the Weather Gang for providing this forum and all the educational information.

Posted by: celestun100 | March 1, 2009 8:38 PM | Report abuse

Unreal. Fairfax schools just closed!! Not kidding.

http://www.fcps.edu/news/emerg.htm

Posted by: jkam | March 1, 2009 8:39 PM | Report abuse

FCPS just closed for tomorrow...

Anyway, SHAFTED!

Remember not too long ago when it was said that by 8PM, it would be coming down HEAVY, like an inch per hour or more rates?

Yeah about that...

Posted by: wecndo | March 1, 2009 8:39 PM | Report abuse

It's nearing 9pm, radar shows it ending for us west of the Beltway, and nothing on the ground. Fairfax County schools already have the day off tomorrow; it should make the commute easier on the dry, snowless roads of Loudoun County on the way into D.C... So much for a day off...

Posted by: altruisticone | March 1, 2009 8:39 PM | Report abuse

I think Curmudge may have nailed it on high pressure to the north supressing the storm and essentially drying it up. No discussion of that here still . . . I love the CWG guys and have been a frequent contributor, but that seems a little disappointing to me.

Do I care that much though? No. Snow is just a pain in this area, and we aren't likely to have a federal closing, so it just becomes a pain in the ass.

Posted by: SouthsideFFX | March 1, 2009 8:39 PM | Report abuse

FCPS is official at 8:30... kids are soooo happy =)

http://www.fcps.edu/news/emerg.htm

Posted by: Alexandria2009 | March 1, 2009 8:40 PM | Report abuse

Look guys, if you live in the District and the immediate suburbs, you have to resign yourself to the FACT that this is going to be a huge bust. Look at radar (dry slot) . . .look at the temperatures.

The fact is that those of us in DC and immediate surrounding areas are only going to get a dusting to an inch - TOPS. NWS will pick up on that fact far too late, but I hope CWG will do so soon.

It's high time we stop wishcasting and face reality.

It's over.

CWG, please update your accumulation forecast. You guys are simply the best - for many reasons - but most importantly because you're accurate. It's time to kiss this one goodbye and look forward to Spring and Thunderstorms. Please, stop this madness and drastically lower your predictions.

Posted by: 300_sq_ft | March 1, 2009 8:40 PM | Report abuse

I would trust CapitalWeather's forecast team more than I would the authors of some of the above comments. Please, folks, don't get overly heated. If you knew it was going to be a bust all this time, there's no reason to shout or post in capital letters.

If nobody else is going to play the optimist, I will. The low is still to our south, and given the strength of this storm, it's likely that any 'holes' left are going to still. Besides, those east of I-95 are having a field day if the radar returns are correct.

I'd like to see how many "bust" posters congratulate CapWx on a spot-on forecast by tomorrow afternoon. Be patient, folks. We're still set to double our yearly storm total, and it's March!

Posted by: KBurchfiel | March 1, 2009 8:40 PM | Report abuse

Once again, Fairfax parents are forced to make a difficult decision being going to work to feed their families - and leaving their kids to their own devices - or missing a day of work and possibly putting their finances in jeopardy. Obama was right - we are a bunch of pansies.

Posted by: SouthsideFFX | March 1, 2009 8:41 PM | Report abuse

CWG tends to be solid on temps, but no one in this area can nail snow. BUST! Time to go back to the old 50/50. It will snow, or it won't. I'll check back in the spring and see if you can at least call some thunder storms, not that I'll put much stock in it. Thank God we don't rely on you guys for tornado calls. We would all be cowering in our basements right now. Cry wolf!

Posted by: eor11 | March 1, 2009 8:42 PM | Report abuse

No snow in Westminster yet. Too premature to call it a bust. I expected four inches of snow. I bet we'll get four inches of snow because that's how much we always seem to get in Carroll County regardless the forecast.

And why get angry? It just means less shoveling and an easier drive to work.

Posted by: olandob23 | March 1, 2009 8:43 PM | Report abuse

First time posting on here. I wonder why so many people are so up at arms about this storm now when it hasn't really played out yet. If it does get into the 4-8 range, anyone think we'll hear any mea culpas from all those shouting bust now?

I am still hopeful but surprised that Fairfax County already called school for tomorrow. Why not wait and let it play out a bit longer in case the storm doesn't materialize.

By the way, snow on the grass, 32.5 and currently nothing falling in Clifton.

Posted by: CliftonJohn | March 1, 2009 8:43 PM | Report abuse

For all of you complaining about the lack of snow, why don't you just drive to the east and then you can see your beloved snow.

Posted by: Thundershock | March 1, 2009 8:44 PM | Report abuse

I think this looks like one of those odd snow vs. I95 storms... from past recollections, snow wins in the overnight =)

Posted by: Alexandria2009 | March 1, 2009 8:44 PM | Report abuse

The only way to forecast snow for this area is to make your best educated guess as to the timeline and accumulations, THEN move the timeline back 3 hours and take several inches off the accumulations.

Posted by: wecndo | March 1, 2009 8:44 PM | Report abuse

5 inches of snow on my lower deck here in central Calvert county. Snowing moderately here now. Has been snowing heavily to moderately most of the afternoon/evening.

Snow started here around 2:30 this afternoon.

Posted by: ranincalvert | March 1, 2009 8:45 PM | Report abuse

Dem,
Really? Hacks? Care to back that claim up with any merit? Or would you rather insult us anonymously on an internet message board. Careful when you fall off that high horse. It's a long way down to where the rest of us "putzes" mingle about.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | March 1, 2009 8:45 PM | Report abuse

Fairfax County schools closed tomorrow -- just announced.

Posted by: kdando | March 1, 2009 8:45 PM | Report abuse

My only problem is that when weather-hysteria is hyped, then the schools will close even if we DON'T get any snow. It drives me crazy to use vacation time for one inch of snow. When we get a surprise snowfall of one inch, people usually get to work and school just fine. But if you predict 4-8 inches, and then precipitation falls at all, the schools close even if it amounts to a dusting.

Posted by: 1Reader | March 1, 2009 8:46 PM | Report abuse

It is a bust in the sense, out here in western loudoun co., we will be lucky to see a dusting, that was not in the forecast...

Posted by: mbmurray | March 1, 2009 8:48 PM | Report abuse

While we've had a break in the action and the storm is underperforming west of 95, the storm isn't over...and we should get at least a few inches... Working on another update...

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | March 1, 2009 8:49 PM | Report abuse

We still think CWG called it. It looks like lower end of the forecast for the west, but the real precip insn't supposed to start for another 3 hours, that means if .5 falls per hour between 12 and 8 you still got 4".

Posted by: Alexandria2009 | March 1, 2009 8:49 PM | Report abuse

Tony Pann's blog: He says he's "concerned" about the dry slot but says it "should" fill in

Posted by: ThinkSpring | March 1, 2009 8:49 PM | Report abuse

SOMEONE FROM CWG PLEASE UPDATE!

Posted by: swimdude412 | March 1, 2009 8:49 PM | Report abuse

Just drove around the district and Arlington. Lots of wet pavement, nothing sticking anywhere yet. Time to go lay out the clothes for work tomorrow. I'll hope for a pleasant morning email from OPM, but my hopes aren't high.

Posted by: matthew_lawlor | March 1, 2009 8:50 PM | Report abuse

I'm fairly certain the only reason they are making their closing decisions so soon is because the season will in effect be over after this storm. That, and only 1 or 2 snow days have been used by the larger systems this season.

Posted by: JTF- | March 1, 2009 8:51 PM | Report abuse

I can't believe Fairfax County closed school tomorrow. First they change the grading system to make it easier for kids to get A's, they want to tinker with the start times to give little Johnny more sleeeping time, and now they close school because of a few flakes.

Never mind the old saw about walking to school up hill both ways in two feet of snow. It has been updated to I went to school up hill both ways when there was an inch of snow on the ground.

Posted by: irish031 | March 1, 2009 8:51 PM | Report abuse

Meh. I'm done with my negativity.

Baseball season is starting anyway, this is going to make the field a slop hole.

Posted by: wecndo | March 1, 2009 8:51 PM | Report abuse

I am at work in Old Towne Alexandria VA. The streets are clear.

Posted by: largo | March 1, 2009 8:54 PM | Report abuse

1/10 of an inch in Silver Spring! Look out! Drizzle of rain coming on strong! Done with all of you, I'll be planting a garden next week.

Posted by: eor11 | March 1, 2009 8:54 PM | Report abuse

Whohoo... this Fairfax teacher is rejoicing...but it's rather silly that we have no major accumulation and already have the day off!

Posted by: HistoryTchr | March 1, 2009 8:54 PM | Report abuse

Snow!!!!!!!!!!! WHERE DID IT GO!!!!!! 3to6 In bristow---- Was that in inches or centimeters, because if it is the latter the weather forcasters were dead on!!!!!!! Good JOB!!!

Posted by: fire3 | March 1, 2009 8:55 PM | Report abuse

Just looking at the wunderground radar, its great. The precip line is right along I-95! Funny stuff!

Now here's something I feel compelled to add. The other day someone wrote something like "I'm an NIH contractor who hates his job and wants the day off." I thought to myself, perhaps that fellow might like join the 5 million other Americans who have no job at all to go to tomorrow morning. Hate your job? Just step aside, because there's probably somebody somewhere who lost theirs recently who'd love to have it. Step aside, or shut it and be grateful.

Posted by: AndrewRockville | March 1, 2009 8:55 PM | Report abuse

CWG is trying.

Haters FAIL!

Posted by: Alexandria2009 | March 1, 2009 8:57 PM | Report abuse

Light snow began again 10 mins ago in SE side of FFX City. Roads had briefly turned white a couple hours ago but just wet now.

Posted by: dudster89 | March 1, 2009 8:57 PM | Report abuse

it kills me. usually "west of dc" means WAY west, like ashburn and beyond. this time, now that we're "underperforming" "west of dc" means falls church. unbelievable. unbelievable. i was so stupid to let myself get excited. what the $%^@ happened?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | March 1, 2009 8:57 PM | Report abuse

While I respect the knowledge and advanced degrees that these guys (CWG) have I could have told you at 3pm by looking at the radar that this was going to be a huge disappointment. My posts are lost in the long threads but I did post that this entire thing was going to slide east and we (DC and west) were going to get dry slotted.

I do not understand why you guys cannot or will not read a real radar (not the pitiful one on your site).

Posted by: MKadyman | March 1, 2009 8:58 PM | Report abuse

Something's falling here west of Centreville. Looks like really light snow.

Posted by: Xenon54 | March 1, 2009 8:58 PM | Report abuse

This is the most pathetic storm ever. Got my hopes up for at least 4 inches here in MoCo but the snow has already stopped and judging by the radar a dusting is all we're likely to get.

Posted by: NattyBo1985 | March 1, 2009 8:59 PM | Report abuse

So far only a moderate dusting here on Capitol Hill. The 1/4 inch of snow on the parked cars is nothing the wipers can't handle.

Posted by: 8-man | March 1, 2009 9:00 PM | Report abuse

My parents in Milford, DE are reporting heavy snow and high winds over there with accumulations already approaching 4". This is definitely one of those storms that will favor the eastern side of our area, but with the low pressure still way down in North Carolina, we have a long ways to go. I see the radar filling in again around the DC area. We may be on the low side of our ranges, but I think we'll be ok yet on the forecast. -Matt Rogers, CWG

Posted by: mrwx1 | March 1, 2009 9:01 PM | Report abuse

At 9pm temperatures are above freezing across much of the area.

Also, the barometer is rising, confirming my suspicion that high pressure to the north is continuing to supress the precipitation.

Posted by: Curmudgeon4 | March 1, 2009 9:01 PM | Report abuse

Way too early to call this one.

Posted by: chunche | March 1, 2009 9:01 PM | Report abuse

From the NWS in Sterling, as of 8:47 PM. Note their continuation of the earlier snow totals for areas along and east of I-95.

ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...THIS STORM WILL COME IN TWO PARTS. THE
FIRST PART IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW...WITH SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. THE SECOND PART WILL
COME LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PIVOTS NORTHEAST AND BRINGS ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW TO THE AREA. OUR
TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST REFLECTS THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
PIECES.

THE TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST STILL HAS ITS CHALLENGES. SOUTHERN
MARYLAND HAS BEEN THE SWEET SPOT SO FAR...WITH TOTALS ALREADY
ALMOST IN WARNING CRITERIA. THIS IS WHERE BANDING HAS BEEN BEST.
DURING THIS FIRST PIECE OF THE STORM...IT LOOKS LIKE JUST EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 95 IS WHERE THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE. IN
FACT...SNOW HAS HAD TROUBLE MAKING IT TOO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST AND
FREDERICK COUNTY MD IN THE WARNING STILL HAS YET TO SEE SNOW.
BELIEVE A NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE DRY AIR WITH
IT HAS BEEN BATTLING THE NORTHWESTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE SNOW.
18Z NAM HAS ACTUALLY DEPICTED THIS WELL THUS FAR. BUT EVEN THE 18Z
NAM TILTS SNOW BACK A LITTLE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT
WITH THE QPF /SNOW AMOUNTS/ THAT THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST.

THE SECOND PIECE OF THE STORM WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE HIGHEST SNOW
AMOUNTS IN A SIMILAR LOCATION -- WHICH WE HAVE DETECTED AS ALONG
AND TO THE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. OUR CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH IN 5 OR MORE INCHES TO FALL IN THIS AREA...IT LOWERS FURTHER
WEST.

THIS WILL BE A STORM THAT LIKELY EXHIBITS A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND HAVE TRIED TO ADD
DETAIL TO THIS IN THE SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST AND WINTER WEATHER
MESSAGE TEXT PRODUCT. IN THE WARNING AREA...WE HAVE 7 TO 9 INCHES
IN THE I95 AND EAST AREA...WITH 4 TO 7 WEST OF THERE FOCUSING ON
THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE ACROSS WESTERN FREDERICK LOUDOUN ETC
CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE. ITS POSSIBLE THESE NORTHWESTERN AREAS
IN THE WARNING AREA FALL SHORT...BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
DOWNGRADE ANY COUNTY IN THE WARNING ATTM AS THE FIRST PIECE ISNT
DONE YET AND THERE/S STILL A SECOND PIECE TO PRODUCE SNOW. MID
SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE.

Posted by: Andrew-CapitalWeatherGang | March 1, 2009 9:02 PM | Report abuse

Current temp. in Burke: 33.6 with light snow again!

Everything outside looks so nice with all the snow. Am I the only one being positive right now?

Posted by: Yellowboy | March 1, 2009 9:02 PM | Report abuse

ok im really getting concerned now it started nice now its flurries what a bust would it be??? do u guys whats making it this way

Posted by: redskinsfan01 | March 1, 2009 9:02 PM | Report abuse

First, can't the conservatives/Republicans give the partisan insults a rest -- on a freaking weather site, at least?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As far as the weather predictions earlier, there are people who make concrete travel plans, people with farms, day care needs and with other issues who need good weather reports. Earlier today, this site pretty much indicated that high levels of accumulated snow in the metro area was a certainty.

Maybe to most people it isn't a big deal, but to a working military parent with a loved one deployed, who might be facing having 3 kids home alone, it is important information.

At a horse farm, it could make a huge difference about how many horses to put in a barn or whether to cancel an important doctor's appointment for the safety of the horses.

I hope none of them used the information here.

Posted by: rebeccajm | March 1, 2009 9:03 PM | Report abuse

After a lull, snow is falling again on Capitol Hill...seems like drier snow

Posted by: WeatherWick | March 1, 2009 9:05 PM | Report abuse

NWS finally mentions what Curmudgeon has been saying all along about the high to the north suppressing (with NW flow in low levels). Good call, Curmudgeon.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | March 1, 2009 9:05 PM | Report abuse

Give the storm sometime. I'm sure all of you will be rethinking what you have said in about two or three hours. The storm will fill in and things will come together. Just as you should not base a forecast on models alone you can't base it completely on just looking at the radar either. I think everyone needs to relax and start looking at the dynamics of this storm a little more thoroughly. Storms like this are a good learning opportunity because of how complex they are. So just relax, sit back, and enjoy the night. Also, take it easy on Capital Weather, I think you will all find that there forecast will actually verify come tomorrow morning.

Posted by: arnoldkh | March 1, 2009 9:06 PM | Report abuse

Current temp. in Burke: 33.6 with light snow.

Some of the comments I am reading are not very nice. This storm is tearing this blog apart.

Posted by: Yellowboy | March 1, 2009 9:07 PM | Report abuse

Im going back to the weather rock= If the rock is wet, its raining, if there is snow on the rock, its snowing, If the rock is gone there must have been a tornado...LOL

For real,If I want to see snow any more I will just have to go back home to Wisconsin..... BRING ON THE WARM WEATHER WINTER IS DONE NOW!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: fire3 | March 1, 2009 9:07 PM | Report abuse

There are two patterns I dislike about CWG, both of which go back to when they had their own website (independent of the Post).

1) Forecasted snow amounts are routinely exaggerated. Calling for a certain amount and getting about 25-30% of that amount is common.

2) Instead of admitting the mistake, they cling to the big projections for hours after the map shows them to be impossible, and even after the storm is over, and the cover is presumably blown, they issue a post claiming they were basically right all along.

So frustrating!

Was the call for 4-8 inches or 4-8 centimeters? (Hell, I'm not so sure we'll even get a few centimeters on the streets in DC.)

Posted by: heatherdc1980 | March 1, 2009 9:07 PM | Report abuse

Everyone is always angry during the first few hours of a snowstorm if it has not produced 20 inches. Hardly tearing us apart since it was like that on both on the new site and the old one. :)

Posted by: JTF- | March 1, 2009 9:09 PM | Report abuse

The weather-speak amuses me to no end...dry slots, composite reflectivity, angles of projection, isentropic lift, sun angle and high pressure to the north. I looked at the radar myself on weather underground, looked at the misty rain outside my window, and my porch temp reading that's much higher than 32 degrees. I came to the grand scientific conclusion that there's no way we're getting 8"...and I have no idea what an isentropic thingy is.

Posted by: tristesse27 | March 1, 2009 9:09 PM | Report abuse

Temp in Mt Vernon/S. Alexandria still 35 at 9:12. Roads are wet, lawn is patchy, precip feels like freezing rain instead of snow.

Posted by: KEBV | March 1, 2009 9:09 PM | Report abuse

9:08 PM in Haymarket - nothing here and the dry spot thats worked into the system makes me think the predictions are wrong again - will be lucky if the second area makes it here and maybe get 2" by morning (my prediction) All worked up for nothing : (

Posted by: oceanliner1 | March 1, 2009 9:09 PM | Report abuse

rebeccajm, I have been following Cap. Weather Gang for several years now, and they are one of the best weather forecasting sites around.

Posted by: Snowlover2 | March 1, 2009 9:10 PM | Report abuse

Wind kicking up in Ashburn. Light flurries.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | March 1, 2009 9:10 PM | Report abuse

A few weeks ago this was a lot more fun without all the negativity. All the haters and those who like to use passive-aggressiveness to get their point across need to get a grip. Come on SNOW!

Posted by: mjwies11 | March 1, 2009 9:12 PM | Report abuse

First time poster, and huge fan of CWG. You're funny and you're informative without talking down to us. Great job!!

My kids love the site, too -- especially the graphics. They're holding out for that fourth apple, though!

As for the recent posts -- Forecasts are best guesses. We don't know yet whether the CWG folks will be right, nearly right, mostly wrong, or really wrong on this call. It's too early to tell. And no one on CWG "guaranteed" 4-8 inches anyway -- they just said it was the most likely result.

As for dem4life, I wish you had chosen a different ID. Perhaps you're just a Republican trying to make Democrats look bad? I can only hope!

Posted by: papers1 | March 1, 2009 9:12 PM | Report abuse

Nothing here in Columbia for over two hours.

Posted by: 1Reader | March 1, 2009 9:13 PM | Report abuse

3.5-4 inches here in Fredericksburg. Been snowing steadily since 3pm.

Posted by: morris4903 | March 1, 2009 9:13 PM | Report abuse

Arlington Spout Run - nada happening right now. 1st wave left thin coat of slushy mix on cars and grass but not sticking to pavement. 66 is just wet.

Posted by: sdefife | March 1, 2009 9:14 PM | Report abuse

Hey Folks:
I am in the middle of the DRY SLOT. No radar angles or the composite indicate any precip in my area. During the past 30 minutes I have been receiving heavy snow with vis. down to a quarter mile!! All pavement is completely covered, but nothing on radar.

Of course I am approx. 100 miles from Sterling or Volens(Blacksburg) and the reflection in my area is close to 15000 ft. elevation. The snow is falling from low cloud tops.

Throughout the afternoon and eve. when radar indicated light to moderate returns, I received only a few spotty periods of snowfall.

Posted by: AugustaJim | March 1, 2009 9:14 PM | Report abuse

It's 37 degrees here in Loudoun with not a drop of precip to be seen.

Posted by: glastonbury27 | March 1, 2009 9:15 PM | Report abuse

rebeccajm:

Amen re. you comment about weather site partisanship.

I think, however, you need to cut the CWG team some slack. Weather always offers an element of uncertainty. Why not make arrangements in case of heavy snow and readjust as conditions change? You can't expect the CWG to be 100% accurate nor can you blame them when a storm doesn't pan out as advertised (and the jury is still out on this one). From my experience (as a reader for the last two or so years), CWG offers the most thoughtful forecasts in the area.

Posted by: edwardappleby | March 1, 2009 9:15 PM | Report abuse

Current temp. in Burke: 33.1 with moderate snow.

The snow is picking up again! Yay! Please, let's not bring politics into this.

Posted by: Yellowboy | March 1, 2009 9:16 PM | Report abuse

I like the forcast from tristesse27, and i tend to agree!!!!!!!!!! I saw that a while ago...... As stated before in wisconsin when we had a winter storm warning we were getting atleast 4 to 6 inches of snow......I have lived in the DC area for sometime now and the weather caster can NEVER GET IT RIGHT HERE!!!!! If they call for snow in dosnt come, and if they say it will be a dusting it will be 24 inches!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: fire3 | March 1, 2009 9:16 PM | Report abuse

Apparently FCPS has no doubt in the mighty Mega-Monday Storm (compliments of TWC) and have already pulled the trigger. School is closed tomorrow.

Posted by: mchristinaw | March 1, 2009 9:16 PM | Report abuse

Thank you CWG and everyone for your insights.

I have to take Amtrak out of BWI to NYC tomorrow late morning, so I will be grateful for little or no snow. Or in the alternative, getting there safely.

I promise to pay it forward somehow if I have safe, timely travels.

Posted by: Post43 | March 1, 2009 9:17 PM | Report abuse

The snow cutoff is VERY sharp from east to west. At my cousin's house in eastern Stafford county, there is about 3 inches on the ground and the roads. About 6 miles north and west in the same county, there is only about 1.5 inches on the ground. Snow is still falling and starting to pick up.

Posted by: tjack55 | March 1, 2009 9:17 PM | Report abuse

fire3: Maybe because, in Wisconsin, you know it is going to snow. A lot. For six months of the year. I say this having lived there.

D.C. offers a much more volatile and complex weather brew.

Posted by: edwardappleby | March 1, 2009 9:19 PM | Report abuse

9:20 in Courthouse - snow has stopped for now.

Posted by: matthew_lawlor | March 1, 2009 9:20 PM | Report abuse

rebeccajm
C'mon, you gotta be kidding. Everyone and their brother calls for a big snowstorm and you're going to blast THIS site? Besides, it's weather forecasting. Since when has humanity proven that to be a perfect science?

Posted by: dudster89 | March 1, 2009 9:20 PM | Report abuse

What's up with the radar showing snow, but no snow is coming down. Still a dusting here in Arlington.......

Posted by: wecndo | March 1, 2009 9:21 PM | Report abuse

There are times in life when we must all remind ourselves of the Thumper Rule.

Even if I have to go sit in my cubicle at work tomorrow, Thumper's mother was right: Manners Are Everything.

Me, I'm going for a walk with a tumbler of hot chocolate. Even if it is only one inch, it is absolutely beautiful outside.

Posted by: MiltonWaddams | March 1, 2009 9:21 PM | Report abuse

Wow, very self-righteous comments from many here. Like the CWG forecasts were much different from any other forecasts.

Me, I just want some snow.

Posted by: Lindemann777 | March 1, 2009 9:22 PM | Report abuse

Snowing heavily in Lake Ridge.

Posted by: ZmanVA | March 1, 2009 9:22 PM | Report abuse

ED....

Agree and Im not blaming the Guys on here.... When people look at this stuff (weather) they look to far into it.....and start saying stuff because some computer and this and that said this.....

I hope that Im wrong by looking at the radar and the temp, and have to whip 4 inchs of snow off my truck at 4am,but Im not thinking so......

Posted by: fire3 | March 1, 2009 9:24 PM | Report abuse

Every single snow forecast this winter by every single forecasting agency has been dead wrong. Why should this one be any different?

Posted by: spacecadetkid | March 1, 2009 9:24 PM | Report abuse

At 9:22pm snow is flying in carroll county.
A pretty good breeze out of the n.ne. It is
a very fine snow the kind that usually stays around for a while.

Posted by: jamesg2 | March 1, 2009 9:25 PM | Report abuse

Temp has dropped from 37.9 to 34.7 over last 12 minutes here in Ashburn.

Posted by: novaVTfan | March 1, 2009 9:25 PM | Report abuse

Back in business here in NW. And, I don't see how anyone can fault the CW team, since everyone else has a similar forecast. Besides, there's 6" on the ground in Calvert County, only 20 miles from DC, so folks there would have been right to bring their horses in, or whatever that lady was saying.

Posted by: lioninzion | March 1, 2009 9:25 PM | Report abuse

Drizzling a bit in Warrenton.

Posted by: jms8 | March 1, 2009 9:25 PM | Report abuse

"Have you entered the storehouses of the snow,
Or have you seen the storehouses of the hail,
Which I [God] have reserved for the time of distress,
For the day of war and battle?"
Job 38:22-23

Obviously, some of you haven't. ;-) I think there's plenty more precipitation in the storehouses for this storm.

Posted by: KBurchfiel | March 1, 2009 9:26 PM | Report abuse

I'm from the north too and I don't beleive in blaming the forecasters. for one thing, in Detroit, where there is a big lake effect, the weather was also hard to call. I lived in Wisconisin also and they did not always call it right either.

I have noticed that here we are usually on the rain/snow line and we haven't been getting good storms lately.

I still don't see how you can blame the weather forecasters. They are telling you the probabilities, not the certainties.

Posted by: celestun100 | March 1, 2009 9:26 PM | Report abuse

9:22 and snowing moderately here in Alexandria (Braddock and Russell). Temp still holding steady at 33, but my dog is starting to give me the "let's go out and run around look".

I'm gonna read for an hour and then pop open a Newcastle and there will be snow on the ground. I can feel it and I trust my faithful snow-loving quadraped...

Posted by: lingering_lead | March 1, 2009 9:26 PM | Report abuse

Snow is coming down good in Harrisonburg. Wind has picked up quiet a bit. There is a coating of snow on everything.

Posted by: oriolesfan23 | March 1, 2009 9:26 PM | Report abuse

Hey ZmanVA,

Is it sticking? My best case scenario is that Woodbridge gets creamed and we get no snow, but still the snow day, over here in Manassas!

Posted by: anpanman | March 1, 2009 9:27 PM | Report abuse

Snowing at a steady pace in the City of Fredericksburg. We are about 2-3 miles east of I-95.

Posted by: MOMINTHEBURG | March 1, 2009 9:29 PM | Report abuse

IMO, the TV weather crews ask for getting made fun of. When they do get a forecast right, they run promos stating as such as if they have to make a big deal out of doing their jobs. And, they do over hype every chance of snow that might fall.

Posted by: irish031 | March 1, 2009 9:30 PM | Report abuse

Talk about a sharp cutoff - it's a whiteout in my front yard, and flurries in the back. Just kidding... light snow now in Potomac.

Posted by: AstrosFanInExile | March 1, 2009 9:33 PM | Report abuse

Ok CWG what's the story? Two hours ago it was snowing pretty steadily here in Adams Morgan, and then it stoopped for awhile, and now it's snowing again. Nothing's sticking unless it's on a car, grassy area, or bush. We're still at 33 according to both weather.com and accuweather. Are we really going to get 4"+ or is it going to be another bust? Please don't dash my hopes yet again. I moved here from San Francisco 6 mos ago and have been looking forward to snow all winter long.

Posted by: BruinGirl2001 | March 1, 2009 9:35 PM | Report abuse

Celestun

Ok Ill Say it again I know the DC Area is different the Wisconsn and Mi...I was born In Marquette... Im not making fun of the guys in here or any other weather forcaster out there so relax...

last winter I was in Wi for 2 weeks and got about 24 inches of snow in that 2 weeks they called for it ....Wi is Flat and everything moves west to east.... HEre you never know where it is coming form....I just find it funny and how everyone can get worked up over this stuff... WHne is the last time ANYbody has been right when it comes to predicting a winter storm in this area

i hate the snow in my job anyway I hope we dont get much....BTW its Snow again again in Bristow

Posted by: fire3 | March 1, 2009 9:36 PM | Report abuse

Light snow now in Loudoun, just west of RT 7/RT 28. Yay!

Posted by: natsncats | March 1, 2009 9:36 PM | Report abuse

Nice snow in FFX again. 31.9 and sticking to streets again.

Posted by: dudster89 | March 1, 2009 9:36 PM | Report abuse

33.6 degrees and light snow in Ashburn

Posted by: novaVTfan | March 1, 2009 9:38 PM | Report abuse

heatherdc1980--

I think you need to do your research on CWG. This is one of the only places you can go to without fear of hyping. Clear reason, no bias for ratings, and a full post storm grading on what they got right and what they got wrong. Storms are storms and only they know exactly what they will do. CWG puts themselves out there with educated and most importantly honest asessements of what they believe to be the truth about the severity, or lack thereof, of a weather event.

Posted by: Ebbi88 | March 1, 2009 9:38 PM | Report abuse

Good to see ground reports are matching the radar's return of echoes around the DC area. There will be a few more interesting elements of this storm in the next 12-15 hours. When the coastal low gets going off the Mid-Atlantic coast, we could see some precipitation enhancement (past midnight, before dawn). Also, the upper level low in the Southeast really surprised folks in Georgia today with heavier totals. That upper level low passes through our area mid-morning tomorrow. A lot of interconnecting parts here to this complex system! Matt Rogers, CWG

Posted by: mrwx1 | March 1, 2009 9:45 PM | Report abuse

West of Centreville, the snow and wind started at pretty much the same time. It seems to be sticking, but it's now snowing more sideways than down. Thermometer says 33.8.

Posted by: Xenon54 | March 1, 2009 9:45 PM | Report abuse

This is all pretty interesting. I've been here for 6 years and the hype/bust cycle is exhausting. While I don't suspect that the larger examples of anger displayed here tonight are appropriate, you can understand where it might originate from. The hype is flat-out obnoxious and I suspect that many of us on this board envision where this hype/bust cycle would leave us in our professional situations...likely on our faces in the back parking lot sans entry keys.

I'm a trader and the only thing that matters is performance; I fail, I'm done. And while I will allow for the fact that the science of meteorology has larger unknowns than say, world markets, I deal with my share of the stochastics. I think the anger comes from the lack of contrition from the forecasting community following the multitude of busts, especially when the bust is in the form of a forecast that is riddled with confidence pre-storm.

It would help if the CWG was out here actively managing the situation, the information, giving us their best guess as to what's wrong, and being frequent in their posts at this stage. Their silence smacks of compunction.

Posted by: 125WMARION | March 1, 2009 9:45 PM | Report abuse

Just began to snow in Laytonsville, MD. about 37 Deg, light flurries. First precip since noonish.

Posted by: dprats21 | March 1, 2009 9:48 PM | Report abuse

Moderate burst of snow here in Silver Spring. Sticking to everything, including colder areas of the roads!

Posted by: SkywalkerSS | March 1, 2009 9:48 PM | Report abuse

Matt & CWG crew - you guys are doing GREAT, keep up the good work! Does it help to provide geographical updates here on the blog, using @capitalweather replies on Twitter, or both?

Posted by: VAStateOfMind | March 1, 2009 9:49 PM | Report abuse

Hi 125WMarion, an update is being posted shortly to reflect the realities on the ground. I'm sure as a trader you realize you can't flip the switch at every slight change in information that comes your way. You'll burn out or blow up quickly that way! Also, you don't score successes or failures PRIOR to the event in question's completion. I know lots of traders too and they are human and "fail" and are not "done" as you suggest. You have to win more than you lose is what I'm told by traders. Same goes for us meteorologists. We're not that different (unfortunately). Matt Rogers, CWG

Posted by: mrwx1 | March 1, 2009 9:52 PM | Report abuse

Still 37 degrees here in western Loudoun; however, I just heard the first wind gust of the evening.

Posted by: glastonbury27 | March 1, 2009 9:53 PM | Report abuse

The geographic comments are great and an excellent way to ground truth the radar! Keep them coming (and thanks). Matt, CWG

Posted by: mrwx1 | March 1, 2009 9:55 PM | Report abuse

I have to agree with 12Marion. The contributors to this site were quick to criticize my theories about sun angle and ground temperatures last night. Now that the first part of their forecast has busted, they are curiously silent. I posted some observations of why we haven't seen much snow about 90 minutes ago that were also ignored by the CapWX team.

Oh well, I will continue to be the lonely voice crying in the wilderness. It's the curmudgeonly thing to do! LOL

Posted by: Curmudgeon4 | March 1, 2009 9:55 PM | Report abuse

anpanman: Looks like it's just about started sticking on the roads/sidwalks here in Lake Ridge (just off Old Bridge Rd). Main roads look fine with a bit of slush. I would think though that Woodbridge proper would simply have wet roads since temps might be a tad warmer despite a bit more precip.

Posted by: ZmanVA | March 1, 2009 9:59 PM | Report abuse

Yay! Snowing to beat the band in Columbia; sticking to everything!

Posted by: dynagirl | March 1, 2009 10:01 PM | Report abuse

Snow coming down at a pretty good clip now west of Centreville. I would call it "moderate". Though most of the snow is blowing sideways, what lands on the ground is sticking. I can't read the thermometer, but the closest weather station (http://tinyurl.com/yqwn4j) says 33.8.

Posted by: Xenon54 | March 1, 2009 10:02 PM | Report abuse

Snowing again in Rosslyn. Yeah!

Posted by: cdog123 | March 1, 2009 10:02 PM | Report abuse

OMG! Extremly heavy snow here right now! The wind is blowing very hard as well! Streets covered + cars

Posted by: Snowman_In_Herndon | March 1, 2009 10:05 PM | Report abuse

Here we are at 10pm, and temperatures across the area are still mostly above freezing, despite several hours of off and on snow and a steady north wind.

Anyone still want to argue that warm ground temperatures aren't a factor in snow accumulation with this storm?

Posted by: Curmudgeon4 | March 1, 2009 10:06 PM | Report abuse

No one is yearning for a big heap of snow more than I am, but cut CWG some slack. CWG ROCKS! I would rather come here and ride the wave of news and views than anywhere else.

I think there are like 6 native Washingtonians and I am one of them. Snow is a fickle thing here. (Um, understatement of the century?) I have seen the nets predict 1-3 and then be shocked to wake to 5-8 before. And of course many, many times the opposite. It sure looks like tonight is a bust, but you know who will give us the skinny first don't you? The good people at CWG.

Also, grousing parents of Fairfax County, I am delighted not to be your child. Snowdays are one of the joys of childhood and grousing about, what? Two days this year! May you only have more grousing to do when winter returns late this year.

Posted by: ArlingtonSnowGal | March 1, 2009 10:07 PM | Report abuse

Moderate snow in South Springfield. 33 degrees. Just starting to stick on the sidewalks.

Posted by: cmspsu13 | March 1, 2009 10:07 PM | Report abuse

Not a bit of anything on the streets of capitol hill. What are the chances I wake up to 100% black streets?

Posted by: heatherdc1980 | March 1, 2009 10:07 PM | Report abuse

We're not silent! Go to top of page, click on Capital Weather Gang and you'll see the update posted in the past hour. Plenty of fresh comments to attack over there too! -Matt

Posted by: mrwx1 | March 1, 2009 10:08 PM | Report abuse

ok, now it's snowing -light to moderate- here in Laytonsville. How bad is visibility down in the snowy areas with the winds picking up? Just wondering as I was watching the wind whipping the snow we are getting now.

Posted by: dprats21 | March 1, 2009 10:11 PM | Report abuse

Matt - I certainly appreciate your comments. Perhaps I was speaking in a more general sense about failing and being done - I will say that meteorologists have far greater ability to wait for the completion of an event than financial market participants. The list of those who failed prior to the maturity of an event in markets is quite long. Many new entrants over the past 12 months.

It's the presentation of the forecasts that I believe upsets some. I was a meteorology major at Oklahoma for 5 semesters before I simply reached my limit of understanding. I know this stuff is categorically inexact. I feel that the professional forecasting community could do a better job reminding the average consumer of their product of this fact. There can be a residue, for lack of a better term, of confidence in these forecasts that I gather is unintended, but all the same evident.

Good luck with tonight and much appreciation for the work that you guys do try to do here.

Posted by: 125WMARION | March 1, 2009 10:12 PM | Report abuse

Curmudgeon4
Sure, I'll argue that ground temps aren't the issue with the lack of accumulating snow. The lack of much snow is the reason there isn't much accumulating snow! When it snows nicely, my roads in SE FFX City get white. When it stops for 2 hours, the roads tend to melt. But the inch or so on the grass isn't melting.

Posted by: dudster89 | March 1, 2009 10:16 PM | Report abuse

It's a nice snowfall in Herndon (Oak Hill) at the Reston line. Here's hoping for a restrengthening overnight.

CWG has done a good job given our crazy microcosm. These storms aren't as easy to track as a supercell. More like tracking a hurricane (another lovely LP system).

Maybe CWG kept the blog posts to min. to let the silly emotions play out.

Posted by: kygurl94 | March 1, 2009 10:22 PM | Report abuse

Thanks 125WMARION. I actually do weather consulting for commodity traders too and you're absolutely correct that emphasizing confidence is a key element to managing expectations. I think the CWG does a much better job than other media outlets in expressing confidence or lack thereof. But as you suggest, perhaps more can be done. -Matt

Posted by: mrwx1 | March 1, 2009 10:24 PM | Report abuse

Everyone on this comment thread, please note that a new update was posted over an hour ago. You can click our header at the top of this page and it will refresh to the update with revised accumulations and a whole plethora of comments! -Matt

Posted by: mrwx1 | March 1, 2009 10:25 PM | Report abuse

First time posting. I am near La Plata, MD in Charles County. It has been snowing steadily since 4:00PM. Just measured snow on deck; 6.5 inches. I'd say CWG got it right.

Posted by: can61 | March 1, 2009 10:33 PM | Report abuse

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