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Posted at 10:50 AM ET, 04/10/2009

Forecast: Waiting on Showers, Thunder?

By Camden Walker

Best chance of showers & storms is late tonight

* Grading Our Winter Outlook | Later: Ready for Severe Weather? *


Today: Scattered p.m. showers?...T-storm? Mid-60s to near 70. | Tonight: Better chance of showers & storms. Near 50. | Tomorrow: A.M. showers. P.M. clearing. Increasing wind. Upper 50s. | Sunday: Sunny. Mid-to-upper 50s. | A Look Ahead


Into the 60s for the second day in a row today! We'll have an increasing chance of showers and maybe a thunderstorm toward dinnertime and during the evening. But overall, any rain is looking light and scattered until late tonight. Saturday is cooler and our shower threat stays around for at least part of the day. After that? Clearing skies lead to a sunny Sunday, but we stay kind of cool into early next week.

Radar: Latest regional radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here to see radar bigger. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Friday): Mostly cloudy skies should prevail. But even so highs should get well into the 60s. Some spots could touch 70 if any peeks of sun get through. A storm to the west will be slow to approach. So much of the day may be dry with the late afternoon and evening presenting the best chance (30-40%) for scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Any showers and storms through around midnight will probably be scattered in nature. So some folks might not get that much. Late tonight, after around midnight, the chance of showers and storms increases to around 60%, and some could be heavy. Many spots have a shot at seeing a general .25-.5" of rain. Areas that catch any heavier showers or storms could get closer to 1". Temperatures dip to the low 50s. Confidence: Medium

Will this storm affect my weekend? Keep reading...

Tomorrow (Saturday): Eventual clearing. But first we'll have to contend with a 60% chance of some more showers in the morning. Highs in the upper 50s will likely feel more like upper 40s because of the wind, which will increase from the north to around 15-25 mph (with some higher gusts). We can't seem to stay warm for long, can we? Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Clear but still breezy. Lows in the mid-to-upper 30s will feel extra chilly with northerly breezes from 10-15 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Sunday: Glorious sunshine returns for Easter (but cold if you'll be out for Sunrise Service -- temperatures rising from the mid-to-upper 30s into the 40s). No rain, and only a little breezy. What stops me from labeling this a perfect day? Temperatures will be cool with highs only in the mid-to-upper 50s. Still, if you dress warmly, a good walk around the Tidal Basin before all the blossoms disappear would be a good idea! Confidence: Medium-High


For Sunday night, stargazers take note of a nice clear evening. Lows in the mid-30s. But if you live outside the Beltway? There's a chance of near or below-freezing temperatures. Take in those vulnerable plants you may have in pots outdoors. Confidence: Medium-High

Continued sunny early Monday with highs headed for the upper 50s -- not bad for the White House Easter Egg Roll. Then, increasing clouds later in the day before the next chance of rain comes Monday night. Confidence: Medium

Tuesday looks partly to mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid-60s could get warmer than that depending on just how much sun there is. Confidence: Low

By Camden Walker  | April 10, 2009; 10:50 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Are You Prepared for Severe Weather?


Per Sterling, the threat of thunderstorms is somewhat diminished [with CAPE no higher than 200-300 j/kg. compared with a projected 1,000 j/kg. last night]. Best chance for a thunderstorm seems to be in the southeast portion of our "county warning forecast area" or from central Virginia across the Potomac to southern Maryland. Places from Charlottesville east through Fredericksburg, the Northern Neck and Salisbury may get thunder, perhaps even some small hail or wind gusts. Severe weather should stay to our south.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | April 10, 2009 9:30 AM | Report abuse

Noon update:

Nobody has been posting despite the prospect for some interesting weather later today. Has everyone left town already for Easter?

Right now there seem to be two areas of weather attracting our interest. The first area, entering West Virginia from Kentucky and Ohio, figures to give us some shower activity towards evening.

The second line looks very interesting as it moves from West Tennessee to Middle Tennessee. It's full of severe weather and there are numerous tornado, wind and large-hail warnings in Middle Tennessee. However it figures to weaken as it moves toward us, probably in the wee hours of tomorrow morning. Much of this line of severe thunderstorms [or what's left of it]could pass to our south. Passage of the stacked low currently over Missouri near our county warning forecast area could influence strength and duration of tonight's and tomorrow's precipitation, which should primarily be rain. Some small hail might fall from a strong cell or two in central Virginia and southern Maryland.

This morning's cloudiness has been primarily cirrostratus [halo visible] in northern Virginia, with some altocumulus in patches to our north and east. It seems to be lowering to a thin layer of altostratus translucidus with the sun visible and casting shadows at this time.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | April 10, 2009 1:05 PM | Report abuse

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