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Posted at 11:50 AM ET, 05/26/2009

Forecast: Dour Showers Today

By Matt Rogers

* Flood Warning for Seneca Creek & Rock Creek (Montgomery Co.) *
* Flood Watch for Metro Area Until Wed. Morning | Warning Area Map *


Today: Frequent showers. Mid-to-upper 60s. Tonight: Mainly evening showers. Cloudy. Steady temperatures. | Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy. Some showers. 76-79. | A Look Ahead


Well, the long holiday weekend has come and gone. If you are heading back to work, be ready for a miserable Tuesday with well below normal temperatures, easterly winds, and frequent showers. A combination of a stalled front and high pressure to our northeast will compound the return-to-work blahs today. The good news is that today should be the worst day of the week, but we will still have more rain chances to monitor.

Today (Tuesday): Dense cloud cover will dominate today due to our oceanic wind flow. Frequent showers should be expected and perhaps some periods of rain (80% probability with generally around 0.5", but locally higher amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in heavy showers). Look for highs stalled in the cool mid-to-upper 60s. Confidence: High

Tonight: Look out for evening showers (60% chance with up to .1") with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures holding steady in the low-to-mid 60s. We should see some drying out by late night into the early morning hours, though clouds should remain. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): As high pressure shifts farther offshore, the winds will make a valiant effort to shift to coming from the southeast. This should allow temperatures to reach a little higher (mid-70s), but we won't be able to shake another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms by afternoon/evening (50% chance). Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: A chance of mainly evening showers (40%) should give way to partly cloudy skies with lows still only dropping toward the mid-60s. Our wet soils should keep conditions feeling humid still at this point.Confidence: Medium


Thursday could feature our warmest weather of the week as winds from the south and southwest join forces with some morning and midday sun. Look for highs in the low 80s. Low pressure approaches the area by afternoon, so we'll be on the lookout for yet more showers and storms (60% likelihood). Showers could continue into Thursday night (lows in the low 60s, 40% chance of rain). Confidence: Low-Medium

Friday will see a weak cold front pass through the area in the morning. It may not get very far and we still run the (40%) risk of showers and storms. Highs should be in the low 80s again at least. Confidence: Low-Medium

The weekend is looking good so far with upper 70s on Saturday and low 80s possible on Sunday. Lows should be around 60. And the best part? Right now, it looks like we have a DRY weekend in store with partly to mostly sunny skies. We have a shorter week to reach the weekend, so let's hope the forecast holds together! Confidence: Low-Medium

By Matt Rogers  | May 26, 2009; 11:50 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Two hours before
alarm: thunder wakes me up.
Not happy camper.

Posted by: Murre | May 26, 2009 6:18 AM | Report abuse

West Springfield: 0.6 inches so far. (as of 7:30a). We've been skipped for the most part - so far.

Posted by: bikerjohn | May 26, 2009 7:41 AM | Report abuse

This is absolutely not what we need. I just saw a report for Chantilly: 3.58 inches of rain overnight. It's also rather windy. Honestly, this is supposed to be a hung-up stationary front, not a tropical remnant!

By the way, I missed last night's dance. The problem was not rain but a bus scheduled to leave Columbia Pike and Dinwiddie at 8:17 PM which pulled out of the bus stop up to five minutes early! Frankly, I'm rather upset over pared-down holiday transit schedules, especially when the buses, and possibly Metrorail aren't arriving and departing according to the timetables.

I must also admit that I'm rather surprised that Gottaswing held their regular Monday-night dance on the holiday, especially with this weekend's rather busy dance schedule. They ought to know that transit timetables run on a Sunday schedule [or not even that, as I experienced!] It may have been better that I missed the bus, as I still could be waiting at Friendship Heights or Gallery Place Metro, otherwise.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | May 26, 2009 7:50 AM | Report abuse

Don't forget, Flash Flood Warnings have been issued

The radar is impressive as the storm and bands seem to develop just over the metro area.

Posted by: JJones-CapitalWeatherGang | May 26, 2009 7:55 AM | Report abuse

We had 4+ inches by 8:30 a.m. in Silver Spring (near NOAA HQ). A lot more than the .5-.75 promised!

Posted by: FunkyGawy | May 26, 2009 10:50 AM | Report abuse

Yeah, what happened to the forecast? When I went to bed, most outlets were calling for occasional showers, and although I believe you guys said about an inch could fall in areas with heavier showers, I have received 3.75" so far in TP/SS area. BTW, that is 9.15" for the month and 22" for the year.

Posted by: steske | May 26, 2009 11:07 AM | Report abuse

@steske and @FunkyGawy

It's very difficult to predict rainfall totals for convective showers and t'storms. Some areas may get very little (less than 0.5") whereas other get several inches.

Check out the doppler rainfall estimates for the entire region at: -- large portions of the region have received less than an inch, despite the 1-3"+ swath in the Maryland suburbs.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | May 26, 2009 11:20 AM | Report abuse

I agree, it is difficult to predict the totals. However, I do like the flavor, detail, and personal nature of these forecasts.

Keep up the good work, Matt.

Posted by: Sports_Guru | May 26, 2009 12:13 PM | Report abuse

Rain is letting up somewhat but there's some more activity to our south and west.

There's evidently a drier pattern expected after Friday, based on a positive PNA pattern forecast.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | May 26, 2009 12:47 PM | Report abuse

3.47 total at my location in NW Montgomery. 2.10 fell during the incredible half hour storm of Monday.

Posted by: MKadyman | May 26, 2009 1:01 PM | Report abuse

My father reports that over 6" of rain (!!!) fell last night in Chevy Chase, MD; he confirmed this trough two different rain gauges. Wow.

Posted by: Josh-CapitalWeatherGang | May 26, 2009 1:20 PM | Report abuse

Here on the Blue Ridge east of Front Royal, there is now 3" of rain in the bucket.

Rain is good, but cutting the grass every single week... not so much.

On the bright side, I'm am glad our gutters were cleaned on Friday. Also, I debated about turning on the AC for the first time this year since we had company on Saturday... but we made it through w/o.

Posted by: spgass1 | May 26, 2009 1:44 PM | Report abuse

Are you ready to firmly state that we will no longer have any credible threats for snow for the 2008-09 Winter season?

This morning was horrible. I'd appreciate a weeks notice the next time we have a deluge of this type.

Posted by: authorofpoetry | May 26, 2009 1:53 PM | Report abuse

I showed 4.5" of rain in my gauge this morning in Shepherd Park. What a downpour!

Posted by: lhaller | May 26, 2009 1:53 PM | Report abuse

I can corroborate the 6 inches in Chevy Chase. We live on the DC side and measured 6 inches overnight. Was woken by rain around 5.30 and there must have been a microburst or something over Chevy Chase because it was absolutely TIPPING down - in 15 yrs of living in this area and seeing plenty of storms I have never seen rain this heavy.

Posted by: nbrennan | May 26, 2009 10:05 PM | Report abuse

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