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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 05/24/2009

Forecast: Moisture May Mess With Memorial Day

By Brian Jackson

Slight chance of t'storms late this afternoon

* NatCast: Warm, Late Inning Storm? | Summer Outlook *


Today: Mostly cloudy, chance of afternoon t'storms. 79-83. | Tonight: Chance of showers, sticky. 63-67. | Memorial Day: Chance of showers, 77-81. | A Look Ahead


Please don't shoot the messenger. The good news is, the dry will likely outweigh the wet for the remainder of the long weekend. The bad news is, the wet stays in the forecast for a while. Gulf moisture that flooded out Florida this past week will combine with a stalling cold front over the region to keep a fair chance for showers and t-storms in the forecast through next weekend.

Today (Sunday): At least it should stay dry for the majority of the day. Clouds will likely increase as a cold front approaches and by the afternoon a few t'storms (30%) may develop. A lot of places will stay dry. High temperatures should reach the low 80s. Summer stickiness will be present on a wind from the southwest at around 10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: We'll call for a 30% of showers and thunderstorms overnight. By morning, some fog may develop, particularly in any areas that receive some rain today. In general though it will be a rather warm and sticky evening with temperatures only dropping to the low-to-mid 60s under mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be light and variable. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through your Memorial Day and into the mid-week...

Tomorrow (Memorial Day): This cold front apparently plans on spending Memorial Day with us meaning at least the threat of sunburn won't hinder your outdoor BBQ plans. On the other hand, the threat of showers and t'storms may (50% chance). It won't be a washout, but many will see at least a passing shower. Greatest coverage will again be during the afternoon. Skies will stay mostly cloudy with afternoon highs near 80 degrees. Winds will be out of the north at 5-10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Cloudy skies and the chance for showers continue into the evening and overnight. Overnight lows will be in the low-to-mid 60s, and winds will be light out of the north-northeast Confidence: Medium-High


Not much will be changing on Tuesday and Wednesday. Intermittent showers (40% chance) will continue to pester the area. Afternoon highs will range from the upper 60s Tuesday (due to a cool wind from the east) to the low 70s on Wednesday with overnight lows near 60.Confidence: Medium

By Brian Jackson  | May 24, 2009; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Forecast: Downpours to Dampen Memorial Day


we're going camping at washington monument state park (4 miles east of boonsboro md). are the chances of storms higher or lower for there than for the washington area?

Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | May 24, 2009 9:16 AM | Report abuse

Looking very unstable in Fairfax County for the Marine Band concert/fireworks at Wolf Trap - is it worth chancing it? I'd really hate to make the hour-long drive down there and end up having to turn around and head back because of rain...

Posted by: map408 | May 24, 2009 3:41 PM | Report abuse

Just had a brief downpour in Sterling. What do you guys think about the fireworks at Wolf Trap tonight? (Rained out?)

Posted by: Sterlingva | May 24, 2009 3:41 PM | Report abuse

@map408 and Sterlingva

To me, the showers and storms are of the hit-or-miss variety (i.e. scattered-- it won't rain everywhere) and fairly short-lived. They may briefly disrupt outdoor events, but should not completely rain them out.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | May 24, 2009 3:58 PM | Report abuse

Thanks, Jason - the radar's probably making me a bit more risk-averse than usual, also the fact that it's a longer drive to Vienna than it was for me last year.

Posted by: map408 | May 24, 2009 4:03 PM | Report abuse

I was at Delfest, a bluegrass festival near Cumberland, MD last night and we got his with a doozy of a storm - 60+mph winds, hail, at least 2 struck by lightning (happened 50 ft. from where I was), flooding rains, and it lasted at least a couple hours. The storm came west-to-east and then winds reversed and the storm came back on us from the east! Before the storm, it was blisteringly hot and, afterwards, so cold that hypothermia was a real concern. The place was trashed afterwards with tents smashed, debris all over the place, stuff washed into the river, trees down. As bad as the horizontal rain/hail and lightning was, the scariest thing was the thought of "what's next?" There were many times when it seemed that we were on the verge of going from really bad to outright disaster, from everything getting wet to people dying. It was cool for about 30 seconds and then it was just scary and a bummer.

Posted by: blablabla | May 24, 2009 7:38 PM | Report abuse


Sounds wild. Were the people struck by lightning ok?

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | May 24, 2009 10:14 PM | Report abuse


I continue to hold out hope, so I thought you might find this useful -
telling you what you already know to be true

He has already made all the cogent arguments for you.

You can do this. I have faith in you.

Mr. Q.

Posted by: Mr_Q | May 25, 2009 8:56 PM | Report abuse

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