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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 05/27/2009

Forecast: Warming Back Up. Drying Out?

By Dan Stillman

Clouds & shower chances show some staying power

* Congress Ponders New Climate Agency | Later: Hurricane Week *


Today: Mostly cloudy. Isolated shower/t-storm. Low-to-mid 70s. | Tonight: Isolated shower. Mid-to-upper 60s. | Tomorrow: Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated a.m. shower. 60% chance p.m. showers/t-storms. Low 80s. | A Look Ahead


The deluge late Monday and early Tuesday was brief but record-setting, with rain totals of 2-4" common across the area. After just an isolated shower chance today, a better chance of showers and thunderstorms returns tomorrow afternoon and night, possibly lasting into Friday. Through it all, clouds and humidity persist, but both may take the hint and get outta here in time for the weekend.

Today (Wednesday): We'll start the day without the fanfare of yesterday morning's downpours, but rather some fog and mist. Through the day we could see an isolated shower move through and maybe a stray afternoon thunderstorm, but that's about it. It'll be a rather muggy day with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the low-to-mid 70s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Nothing more than an isolated shower, and likely some more mist and fog. Overnight lows stay quite mild -- in the mid-to-upper 60s. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend....

Tomorrow (Thursday): Partly to mostly cloudy and still just that isolated shower chance through the morning. In the afternoon, however, humid air and highs in the low 80s may lead to showers and thunderstorms (60% chance), some of which could be heavy. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Some showers and thunderstorms could linger into the evening. Rain chances diminish overnight, but here comes the fog and mist again. Lows remain mild -- in the mid-to-upper 60s. Confidence: Medium


A cold front arrives early Friday and moves only slowly across the area, which means isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny skies should help highs get to the low 80s again. At this point, can't rule out a couple showers or thunderstorms sticking around into Friday night, which should see overnight lows drop to near 60. Confidence: Medium

It's only Wednesday, but so far I'm pretty optimistic about the weekend. Humidity should be lower with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs near 80 both Saturday and Sunday. Lows Saturday night bottom near 60. Confidence: Medium

By Dan Stillman  | May 27, 2009; 11:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Its taken me pretty much all year to finally clear most of the fallen trees and damage done by the series of wet and strong storms last May and June. So with all the wet ground, how much danger is that the "thunderstorms" in the forecast would carry strong winds?

Posted by: manassasmissy | May 27, 2009 8:02 AM | Report abuse


Any spring/summer thunderstorm has the potential to produce a damaging wind gust; but it's impossible to say whether it will happen in your backyard or when. Tomorrow's storms -- of the storms forecast this week -- probably have the greatest potential to bring some strong winds. But this doesn't look like a massive, widespread severe weather outbreak.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | May 27, 2009 8:58 AM | Report abuse

What time are these "mid-70's" going to appear? Its 10:30 and we have twenty degrees to go.

Posted by: MKadyman | May 27, 2009 10:35 AM | Report abuse

Later this afternoon there is a chance our winds shift to the south and warm us up with a few breaks in the clouds. But the wedge of cool air is holding strong on this side of the Blue Ridge! ugh... :)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | May 27, 2009 10:52 AM | Report abuse

It's still rather cool around here, with mainly stratiform clouds and drizzle earlier this morning...but sky is getting lighter.

Made it to four out of five dances over the weekend...only one I missed was Monday night at Chevy Chase Ballroom...that one was due to the sparse Memorial Day bus service rather than any weather issues.

Outlook for next week could still be somewhat unsettled due to proximity of frontal boundaries in our vicinity. It may be somewhat drier than this week has been so far. Rains will mainly be of the afternoon/evening convective type.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | May 27, 2009 1:31 PM | Report abuse

This cold weather is great! I hope it continues all day.

Posted by: Murre | May 27, 2009 2:32 PM | Report abuse

Hey Captial Weather Guys! So I am heading to Bonnaroo in Manchester, Tennesee (June 11th-14th) in just about 2 weeks and I'm wondering what sort of weather to expect. I know it's a little ways out still, but has Tennesee been experiencing cooler temps like we have this year so far? What's your prediction? Mid to High 80's with possible thunderstorms in the afternoons? Or something else entirely? When I went 2 years ago it was HOT HOT HOT and really dry (dust everywhere!). Thanks in advance!

Posted by: UMDTerpsGirl | May 27, 2009 3:05 PM | Report abuse

"What time are these "mid-70's" going to appear?"

The final high isn't out yet, but there's probably a 74 in there somewhere:

Time EDT (UTC) 	Temperature F (C) 	
Latest 6 PM (22) May 27 73.0 (22.8)
5 PM (21) May 27 73.0 (22.8)
4 PM (20) May 27 73 (23)

Posted by: CapitalClimate | May 27, 2009 6:14 PM | Report abuse

Yup, the high was 74° (23.3°C); that's mid-70s:
KDCA 272352Z 00000KT 4SM HZ FEW130 OVC250 23/16 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP118 T02280161 10233 20194 55004

Posted by: CapitalClimate | May 27, 2009 9:24 PM | Report abuse

Hey, is that a METAR? And if so, where did you find it?

Posted by: KBurchfiel | May 27, 2009 11:25 PM | Report abuse

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