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Posted at 6:30 AM ET, 05/18/2009

Forecast: Week Starts Cool, Turns Warm Then Wet

By Jason Samenow

* NatCast: Dry and Chilly | Later: Renaming Climate Change *


Today: Becoming mostly sunny. Mid-60s. | Tonight: Clear and cool. 38-46. | Tomorrow: Mostly sunny. 72-76. | A Look Ahead


It's hard to believe that it's late May, and we're still talking about 30s and 40s. But something tells me that after tonight, we won't see 30s in the forecast again until October. A warming trend begins tomorrow, and by Wednesday and Thursday, we'll be nearing 80 degrees again. The unfortunate news is that for the third straight week, shower and thunderstorm chances return just in time for the weekend.

Temperatures: Current area temperatures. Powered by Weather Bonk. Map by Google. Hover over and click icons for more info. Click and hold on map to pan. Refresh page to update. See map bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Monday): Don't leave home without a jacket today, as we'll wake up to temperatures in the 40s. Even with full sunshine this afternoon, high temperatures will only climb to the mid-60s or so, as a cool breeze from the north (at 10-15 mph) carries Canadian air southward. Confidence: High

Tonight: Clear skies combined with calm winds will result in cool (cold?) conditions. Lows bottom out near 45 downtown, with upper 30s in outlying areas like Middleburg, Va. and Clarksburg, Md. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend....

Tomorrow (Tuesday): What a day it will be... Though it will start off chilly, the brilliant late May sun will boost temperatures into the low 70s as the cool wind from the north abates. Confidence: High

Tomorrow Night: Another clear, calm and chilly night is in store, but about 5 degrees warmer than the previous. Lows will dip down into the low 40s in the cooler suburbs to near 50 downtown. Confidence: High


A wind from the south creeps in on Wednesday and Thursday, elevating temperatures to more normal levels. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, highs will reach the upper 70s Wednesday and the low 80s Thursday. Overnight lows will be from near 50 in the cooler suburbs to the mid-to-upper 50s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

Friday through Sunday -- much like the most recent Fri-Sun period -- will be humid, unsettled, and challenging to forecast. A weak cold front will drift toward the region, drawing up muggy air ahead of it. Showers and storms will probably develop in this humid air mass, but their timing and location will be difficult to pinpoint. The best chance of storminess will be in the late afternoon and evening. Afternoon highs each day will be in the upper 70s and low 80s (70s if mostly cloudy, 80s if mostly sunny). Overnight lows should generally range from 60-65. The other wild card during this period will be an area of low pressure that may develop in the Gulf of Mexico. It may drift northward late in the weekend -- with an outside chance it enhances rainfall over our region. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Jason Samenow  | May 18, 2009; 6:30 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Renaming Climate Change - Does it Matter?


No chance of frost tonite, is there?

Posted by: weathergrrl | May 18, 2009 8:30 AM | Report abuse

it's freezing today!

Posted by: madisondc | May 18, 2009 10:17 AM | Report abuse

Had a fire in the fireplace last night (low temp 39.4F). Might have one more tonight for the season finale of 24.

Posted by: spgass1 | May 18, 2009 10:41 AM | Report abuse

Cloudiness yesterday has taken a long time to exit the area. Frost remains a possibility in cold areas due to very low dewpoints.

Otherwise the rain dance crowd seems to be coming back for my crowded Memorial Day weekend. It's possible my pocketbook rather than the travel weather could influence my dancing schedule, since the Sunday night dance is more expensive both in cost ($25 vs. $15 or less for the other dances) and transportation (cab fare is more expensive and buses don't run late on Sunday nights). The food and refreshments are better at the Sunday night dance, which boosts the cost.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | May 18, 2009 12:29 PM | Report abuse


Frost is not a concern inside the Beltway, and is unlikely for the immediate suburbs (i.e., Montgomery, Fairfax counties). Main concern is out toward the Blue Ridge, where areas like Hagerstown, Martinsburg, Winchester and Luray are under a Frost Advisory, though I wouldn't be surprised if later today the National Weather Service adds areas a little closer in (like Frederick and Loudoun counties) into the Frost Advisory just in case.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | May 18, 2009 12:57 PM | Report abuse

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