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Posted at 9:45 AM ET, 06/29/2009

Forecast: Big-Time Heat Plays Keep Away

By Jason Samenow

July 4th forecast a question mark...

* Outside Right Now? See Radar, Temps & More: Weather Wall *
* Later: VORTEX2 Wrap-up -- What was learned? *


Today: Partly to mostly sunny. 84-88. | Tonight: Partly cloudy. 60-65. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny, p.m. shower? 81-85. | A Look Ahead & July 4th


Since June 1, we've only logged two days at or above 90, and 91 is as hot as it has been. In the week ahead, we won't add to the 90-degree tally. In fact, most days will struggle to reach 85. Mostly dry conditions will accompany the cooler than average temperatures, but shower chances are in the forecast midweek, and may return for Independence Day weekend.

Webcam: Latest view of D.C. from the Netherlands Carillon at Arlington National Cemetery. Courtesy National Park Service. Refresh page to update. See this image bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Monday): The first day of the week may end up being the warmest as a lot of sunshine propels temperatures into the mid- and possibly upper 80s. It won't feel that hot though, with comfortable humidity (dew points in the upper 50s). Winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Partly cloudy and pleasant. Winds will slacken with lows from the upper 60s downtown to the low 60s in the cooler suburbs. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend....

Tomorrow (Tuesday): We'll have a few more clouds compared to today and possibly (30% chance) an afternoon shower as an upper level disturbance in Canada pivots southeastward towards western Pa. The additional clouds will result in high temperatures about 5 degrees cooler than today, generally in the low 80s. Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: A few showers are possible (30% chance) in the evening, followed by partly cloudy skies overnight. Lows will be in the mid-to-upper 60s (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium-High


The upper level disturbance will continue spinning to our north on Wednesday. It's likely to project a little ripple through the region, producing mostly cloudy skies and a few showers (40-50% chance). Wednesday's weather may end up being a lot like yesterday's, with gray skies, a few light showers, and highs in the upper 70s to near 80. Overnight, showers will decrease, with lows in the 60s. Confidence: Medium

Thursday and Friday, the upper level disturbance to our north does not go away, but loses some punch. So both days will probably be partly cloudy and dry (just a 20% chance or less of an afternoon shower), with highs 80-85 and overnight lows in the 60s. Confidence: Medium

The forecast for July 4th is not an easy one this far out. Right now, it looks like generally dry through the mid-to-late afternoon, with temperatures climbing into the low-to-mid 80s. But a possible area of low pressure moving in the from the west may (30% chance) cause some showers and thunderstorms to develop during the evening. Confidence: Low-Medium

Shower and thunderstorm chances may (30% chance) persist into Sunday, as a front and associated low pressure system potentially move through the region. Highs will probably be around 80 after morning lows in the 60s. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Jason Samenow  | June 29, 2009; 9:45 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Forecast: Partly Unsettled Weather
Next: Lack of Twisters Aside, VORTEX2 Gets Useful Data


Quite a gorgeous morning out there. Makes me wish I could ride my bike in to work.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | June 29, 2009 9:20 AM | Report abuse

@Brian - it was a perfect morning for biking to work. :)

(But if I'm perfectly honest, I seem to feel that every morning is a great morning for biking to work.)

Posted by: debiguity | June 29, 2009 11:40 AM | Report abuse

How many 90+ degrees days did DC have in 2008? Any of them in June '08? I have told a friend that this summer is relatively cool (so far) compared to last summer.

Posted by: SanDieganLostinDC | June 29, 2009 11:46 AM | Report abuse


Your answer is in this post.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | June 29, 2009 12:25 PM | Report abuse

Beginning to get dry...finally[!!!], but Kim Martucci says mold spores remain high this summer...and intense closed low to our NW and N will keep spinning possible waves of showers/thundershowers across our area through the weekend.

Lots of fireflies out...primarily one species...the "Big Dipper", Photinus pyralis.

This summer's cooler weather may be due to volcanic emissions...another volcano, in the Kurile Islands south of Kamchatka, erupted with large quantities of ash this past week, according to Russia Today. Volcanic ash and sulfur oxides tend to cool the atmosphere by blocking sunlight. It's also possible that "global warming" is due to water at high levels injected by comets or comet fragments [Tunguska, 1908] and by more mundane sources such as the Space Shuttle & other NASA rocketry. The present warming has been going on since 1908, implicating the Tunguska comet/asteroid; and the shuttle also puts water into levels where noctilucent clouds may form. It seems that ordinary H2O is a more efficient greenhouse gas than either CO2 or CH4 [methane].

Posted by: Bombo47jea | June 29, 2009 12:56 PM | Report abuse

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