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Posted at 8:00 AM ET, 06/ 9/2009

Forecast: Some Summer and Some Thunder

By Matt Rogers

* Severe T-Storm Watch til 9 PM | Flash Flood Watch til 11 PM *
* ElectionCast: A Stormy Primary? | NatCast: A Storm Possible *
* Riding Along with Vortex 2 | Later: Should the Dewpoint Die? *

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly sunny. 60% chance of thunderstorms. 85-89. Tonight: Partly cloudy. 40% chance t-storm. 66-69. | Tomorrow: Partly cloudy, p.m. storms (30% chance). 83-87. | A Look Ahead

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Many of us were awakened by booming thunderstorms this morning, and more are possible this afternoon into tonight. With the storms and the persistently muggy air, we are finally getting a real taste of summer this week. Unlike last week, we won't cool down significantly as the storm-producing front will stay to our north, keeping us in the 80s with daily storm chances. Right now, it looks like today and Thursday may be the days for the most widespread thunderstorm activity.

Today (Tuesday): Warm and increasingly muggy conditions are on the agenda after this morning's thunderstorms. More storms may (60% chance) develop, especially this afternoon and evening, some of which could be severe with large hail and damaging winds. Just like yesterday, we should see highs at least in the mid-to-upper 80s. Confidence: Medium-High

Thundercast:
Coverage: Scattered

Tonight: Variable clouds tonight with lows in the mid-to-upper 60s. There continues to be a chance (40%) for thunderstorms, especially during the evening hours. Light breezes from the south will shift to coming from a more westerly direction later at night. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): Partly to mostly sunny skies along with temperatures mainly in the mid-80s around the area. We are still running with a 30% chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms as that pesky lingering front to the north could spark some late-day boomers. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Partly cloudy with still a chance for thunderstorms or just showers (30%). Lows in the mid-to-upper 60s yet again. Winds will be back to coming from the southwest at about 5-10 mph. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Thursday and Friday are a bit cooler (highs in the lower 80s), but rain chances are higher with afternoon and evening thunderstorms. We should still see periods of suns each day. Right now, a disturbance passing to the north (along that front) may give Thursday the better chance of seeing storm activity (70%) with Friday coming in closer to 50%. Lows Thursday and Friday morning should range from the upper 60s to low 70s. Confidence: Medium

The weekend actually has a chance of being a decent one as the front moves through later on Friday to bring slightly cooler weather for Saturday and Sunday. The thinking right now is that highs could be in the low 80s both days with lows in more comfortable low-to-mid 60s. A big question mark is how far south does the front go. If it stalls just to our south, it could trigger a few thunderstorms in the afternoons/evenings (30% chance only at this point). Confidence: Low

By Matt Rogers  | June 9, 2009; 8:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

Cloudy with distant thunder, seeming to get closer as those orange blobs on the radar get closer and closer. Our lights have just dimmed twice, thrice in about two minutes. Lovely (not).

Posted by: Murre | June 9, 2009 6:02 AM | Report abuse

Hmmm, not so distant any more. Rain has started. Time to turn off computer. (Severe Thunderstorm warning for the close-in DC area by the way).

Posted by: Murre | June 9, 2009 6:13 AM | Report abuse

"Afternoon thundershowers" is the DC forecast for late June through early September, but I never remember having them in the morning like this. Why is that comparatively rare?

Posted by: crunchyfrog | June 9, 2009 8:17 AM | Report abuse

@crunchyfrog

Storms are more likely in the afternoon because they are typically fueled by daytime heating. Early morning and overnight storms do happen, often triggered by fronts/boundaries moving through the area.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | June 9, 2009 8:58 AM | Report abuse

I've decided I'm ok with muggy conditions and thunderstorms on the weekdays as long as we can keep up the streak of great weekends.

Posted by: Hemisphire | June 9, 2009 9:50 AM | Report abuse

I woke up this morning @6:15, my friend was leaving my place to what looked like a pasty white sky, warm blowing winds, and the looks of an oncoming tornado. It was quite the wake-up call. O_o

Posted by: cbmuzik | June 9, 2009 9:57 AM | Report abuse

@Hemisphere

How generous of you! :)

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | June 9, 2009 10:17 AM | Report abuse

Is there much likelihood of hail from the storms coming the rest of the week (after today)?

Posted by: Janine1 | June 9, 2009 10:18 AM | Report abuse

My beloved and I went to the car just as the big raindrops started splapping, just before 6 AM. Driving to our polling place down Rt 7, visibility was zero a few times. Then we flourished our portable lighting rods and dashed for the school, fording the gutters, scampering thru the grove of flagpoles, blinded and deafened with the storm atop us. We were #2 & #3 to vote; we even beat the minions of the candidates. (They couldn't wait a month for this when I'll be retired!)

Posted by: dcbyday | June 9, 2009 11:12 AM | Report abuse

Early-morning thunderstorms are rather unusual around here...it reminded me of growing up in Chippewa, Dunn, and Eau Claire Counties, WI [Northwoods or Leinenkugel country] where this type weather can happen any time of day or night during the summer months. Hope the air stabilizes a bit around dance time. Even up there the maximum convection occurs during the afternoon/evening period.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | June 9, 2009 11:50 AM | Report abuse

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