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Posted at 7:55 PM ET, 06/13/2009

Forecast: Storm Chances Remain, But Decreasing

By Jason Samenow

* Are You a Severe Weather Junkie? | College Park Flooding *
* UnitedCast | Outside Now? See Radar, Temps & More: Weather Wall *


Today: Partly sunny, 50% chance of storms. Low 80s. | Tonight: 40% chance of storms early. 63-68. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny, 30% chance of p.m. storms. Low 80s | A Look Ahead

Severe Weather Tracking Station
Warning Text: DC | MD | VA
Radar: Latest D.C. area radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here to see radar bigger.
LWX Warnings
Warnings: Severe alerts from National Weather Service. Updates w/o refresh (most browsers). Hint: Alert on map? Click matching label in key for details.


Though we won't be able to completely shake the possibility of showers and storms this weekend, they should be less numerous and severe than they were earlier in the week. And by the early-to-middle part of next week, a stretch of dry weather appears to be a strong possibility. Temperatures will probably be at or slightly below average throughout this period, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Radar: Latest regional radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Saturday): Most of the day will be partly sunny with high temperatures climbing into the low 80s. But of the next several days, today presents the greatest chance of storms -- at about a 50% chance. Fortunately, the storms are not likely to be severe, but could produce some locally heavy downpours. Confidence: Medium-High

Probability: 50%
Coverage: Scattered

Tonight: A few showers and storms may linger through mid-evening (40% chance). Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy and mild, with lows in the mid-to-upper 60s (suburbs-city.) Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast into early next week...

Tomorrow (Sunday): Drier air will try to build in from the north, but the frontal boundary to the south will remain close enough that afternoon showers and storms won't be completely out of the picture (30% chance) -- especially southeast of the District. Under partly sunny skies, highs should once again reach the low 80s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Partly cloudy and seasonable, with lows 60-65 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium-High


On Monday, we keep just the slightest (20%) chance of afternoon/evening storms in the forecast, with otherwise partly sunny skies and highs near 80. Overnight lows will be in the 60s. Confidence: Medium-High

The outlook for Tuesday and Wednesday is promising. Dry, mostly sunny weather is likely, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80, with lows in the mid-50s to lows 60s (suburbs to city). Confidence: Medium-High

By Jason Samenow  | June 13, 2009; 7:55 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Forecast: Slightly Drier, Cooler Weather to Come


This is interesting. Although May and June are normally the two months when we see some of the worst thunderstorms in this area, the last two Mays and Junes, so far, (2008 and 2009) have both had far more rain and seen far more storms than normal. Last year had more severe storms, so far, than even this year....we got them almost every day for litrally months. It does NOT seem to be a result of global warming; indeed, for a number of reasons, temperatures haven't really been that warm at all. Last year it seemed like an endless succession of upper-level lows and destabilization aloft; this year, it seems to be mostly just stalled and slow-moving fronts and surface lows moving along them.

Posted by: MMCarhelp | June 13, 2009 11:19 AM | Report abuse

Hey, great new thundercast icon!

Posted by: --sg | June 13, 2009 11:41 AM | Report abuse

"Last year had more severe storms":
Once again, subjective opinion is contradicted by the facts. Most (over 70%) of the May 2008 rain fell on 5 days from the 8th to the 12th. Only 2 of those had thunder, and there was only 1 other day with thunder in May. This compares with the average of 4.6, which BTW is well exceeded by the peak month of July.

Posted by: CapitalClimate | June 13, 2009 5:31 PM | Report abuse

I see the NWS has changed the forecast for Tuesday-Wednesday from sunny to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/tstorms. Every day through next Saturday seems to be like that. Is this yet another stalled front?

Posted by: david_in_stafford | June 13, 2009 5:34 PM | Report abuse

As a lifelong local, I've always associated thunderstorms more with July and August than May and June.

I hear some rumbles of thunder now on the Blue Ridge. We've just had a few sprinkles so far today. It was a hazy day.

Posted by: spgass1 | June 13, 2009 8:34 PM | Report abuse

Update: Rain on the Blue Ridge east of Front Royal, 68.5F

Posted by: spgass1 | June 13, 2009 8:36 PM | Report abuse

Monsoon conditions near Hwy 15/234 since 8:40 pm. Hopefully passes soon - still have standing water from Wednesday's flood.

Posted by: silencedogoodreturns | June 13, 2009 8:48 PM | Report abuse

Heavy rain has tanked the satellite TV feeds near Hwy 16/234 in northern Prince William. THis is ridiculous...I'll never be able to cut the lawn for a month at this rate:(

Posted by: silencedogoodreturns | June 13, 2009 8:51 PM | Report abuse

Silencedog, I hear you... it's just about impossible to keep up with the grass. Watch out for snakes.

Posted by: spgass1 | June 13, 2009 9:17 PM | Report abuse

completely random, but... am i the only one that looks at the nifty icons and thinks "thunder, Thunder, THUNDER, THUNDERCAST! HOOOOO!"

(A Thundercats reference, in case that wasn't totally obvious. It might not be if i AM the only one thinking that!)

Posted by: cotterpinx | June 13, 2009 10:02 PM | Report abuse

still raining at 10:20 pm in northern Prince William...two hours straight.

"A few showers and storms may linger through mid-evening (40% chance)."

Yes, they ARE lingering...

Posted by: silencedogoodreturns | June 13, 2009 10:24 PM | Report abuse

Intense thunderstorm coming through...again....

Posted by: david_in_stafford | June 13, 2009 10:28 PM | Report abuse

This storm is one of the most intense I have seen in terms of rainfall and wind. We've already received .7" in about 12 minutes and the wind gusts are very high.

Posted by: david_in_stafford | June 13, 2009 10:44 PM | Report abuse

Lots of lightning around, mostly cloud to cloud though. Rain is minly moderate here in Columbia though, no real heavy stuff yet.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | June 13, 2009 10:58 PM | Report abuse

No thunder, moderate rain tapering off in Silver Spring.

Posted by: Murre | June 13, 2009 11:09 PM | Report abuse

went to cut the grass today around 4:00pm and it still wet and it pilled up everywhere. April yes! but in June? come on! We need a week of dry warm air to really dry things out!

Posted by: clintonportis17 | June 13, 2009 11:12 PM | Report abuse

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