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Posted at 8:55 AM ET, 06/19/2009

Forecast: Stormy Saturday Follows Fair Friday

By Dan Stillman

Stretch of nice weather starts Sunday

* NatCast | New Climate Report | Later: Year Without a Summer *
* The Sureness of Climate Skeptics | Heartland Has Change of Heart *

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly sunny. Mid-to-upper 80s. | Tonight: A few showers or storms. Near 70. | Tomorrow: Showers & storms likely, some severe? Near 90. Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny. Low-to-mid 80s. | A Look Ahead

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Here's an idea: How about a few days in a row with sunshine, low humidity and, most importantly, no rain? How about OK, but not yet. (Sorry, if I could make it happen right away I promise I would.) Today's actually not bad. But we're back to shower and storm chances tonight and especially tomorrow. Then, starting Sunday I think we can deliver on that nice stretch of weather we all deserve.

Webcam: Latest view of D.C. from the Netherlands Carillon at Arlington National Cemetery. Courtesy National Park Service. Refresh page to update. See this image bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Friday): Not a bad way to end the work week, or better yet start the weekend early. We're partly sunny today and not terribly humid with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. I guess a stray late-afternoon shower or thunderstorm isn't out of the question, but I really think most spots will stay dry into early evening. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: We may see a few showers or thunderstorms this evening or overnight (probably no earlier than about 7 p.m.) as low pressure passes to our north and the humidity increases. It'll be a mild and partly cloudy evening out there with temperatures only dropping into the mid-to-upper 70s, and only down to near 70 for overnight lows. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast into early next week....


Storm clouds move through yesterday afternoon. By CWG photographer Kevin Ambrose.

Tomorrow (Saturday): A hot, humid and potentially volatile day with a warm front to our north and a cold front approaching from the west. Showers and storms are likely, and some storms could be severe, but timing is uncertain.

The way I see it now, and this is certainly subject to change, we could get one round of showers and storms in the morning, then a breezy midday with some glimpses of sun and temperatures shooting up to highs near 90, and then another round of showers and storms during the afternoon into early evening. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Any showers or storms should move on out during the evening. With clearing skies, breezy winds from the northwest start to bring in lower humidity as lows dip to the upper 60s to near 70. Confidence: Medium-High

Sunday: Almost certainly the better day of the weekend with partly to mostly sunny skies, less humidity and highs in the low-to-mid 80s. I should mention, however, that it's likely to be a rather breezy day. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Partly to mostly clear Sunday night with lows in the 60s. Confidence: Medium-High

Monday and Tuesday are shaping up as partly to mostly sunny days with highs in the low-to-mid 80s and humidity on the low side (for this time of year). Confidence: Medium-High

By Dan Stillman  | June 19, 2009; 8:55 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: A Year Without a Summer?

Comments

Hey, the Park Service camera is back up! It was shut down for maintenance for quite a while. I like to check this right before heading home for real-time conditions.

Posted by: mmurphy70 | June 19, 2009 8:59 AM | Report abuse

". . . dry into early evening"?
Granted it's still west of the mountains, but it does seem a bit premature to totally dismiss that humungous area of heavy showers extending from Pittsburgh to Beckley, especially for the southern fringes of the region.
(Oh, I forgot, your artificial publishing schedule means this forecast was canned last night.)

Posted by: CapitalClimate | June 19, 2009 10:37 AM | Report abuse

Re: Saturday Night. I'm going to a concert at Wolftrap tomorrow night. Starts at 8:00. Do you think rain will be much of threat then? Thx

Posted by: skywatcher1 | June 19, 2009 10:50 AM | Report abuse

And 2 hours later, CapitalClimate, that blob of moisture is almost completely gone and sliding mostly to the southwest of the area. (of course your motives are clear, and now kind of old)

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | June 19, 2009 12:47 PM | Report abuse

Wow CapitalClimate...that was embarrassing! Anything else you want to add?

Keep up the great work Weather Gang!!

Posted by: schrute | June 19, 2009 12:57 PM | Report abuse

Looks like it will be raining here again in a few hrs - big area of showers bearing down.

Posted by: Axel2 | June 19, 2009 1:13 PM | Report abuse

Looks as though tomorrow's Columbia Pike Blues Festival is a washout, but Sunday might be drier. My dances tonight [Arlington/Fairfax Elks Lodge] and tomorrow [Spanish Ballroom , Glen Echo]are both indoors, but the transit tomorrow might get hit with severe weather.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | June 19, 2009 2:19 PM | Report abuse

@CapitalClimate

Umm... I saw that blob of moisture this morning (and had expected it when originally crafting the forecast), took another look a the models, and decided not to make any changes in the forecast based on strong model indications that that moisture would not make it into the metro area. We should give NWS credit as well for taking precip out of their forecast in their morning update today.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | June 19, 2009 3:04 PM | Report abuse

@CapitalClimate

Re: your comment about our "artificial" scheduling... Yes, we prep our forecasts that go up at 5 am that night before...but we also freshen up the forecast if/as necessary every morning.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | June 19, 2009 3:22 PM | Report abuse

"sliding mostly to the southwest"
A little touchy, are we?
Which part of "southern fringes" was too hard to understand?
KSHD 191700Z AUTO 14006KT 4SM -RA CLR 25/23 A2987 RMK AO2 FZRANO
KSHD 191640Z AUTO 00000KT 5SM -RA CLR 25/22 A2993 RMK AO2 FZRANO

"NWS credit as well for taking precip out of their forecast in their morning update"
No, actually they put it back in at 20%, which was consistent with the comment as originally made, and they noted that the models had not been handling this feature well. From the forecast disco:
"THIS AREA OF STRONGER CONVECTION
SHOULD PASS JUST TO OUR S"
And from the earlier one:
"MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS COMPLEX SO FAR."

Simply blowing it off with no mention was either ignorant or arrogant, take your pick. Maybe when you grow up, you'll learn that luck is not a substitute for skill.

Posted by: CapitalClimate | June 22, 2009 12:18 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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