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Posted at 1:15 PM ET, 06/18/2009

Forecast: Sticky, Stormy Weather Returns

By Josh Larson

Band of heavy midday showers & storms moves through

* Outside Right Now? See Radar, Temps & More: Weather Wall *
* The Sureness of Climate Skeptics | Heartland Has Change of Heart *


Today: Mostly cloudy. T'storms; some strong? 79-84. | Tonight: Cloudy. Scattered showers. Mid-60s. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny. PM thunderstorms. Mid-80s. | A Look Ahead


Don't let the past couple days' respite from heat fool you: we settle back into typically mid-summer-like conditions over the next few days, with afternoon highs warming back up into the 80s (to near 90 Saturday), accompanied by higher humidity levels and the stereotypical D.C. afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Some storms, especially today, may be gusty to severe in nature.

Radar: Latest D.C. area radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Thursday): After early-morning showers and thunderstorms, some brightening of the sky is possible by late morning into early afternoon. But -- ironically -- any sunshine (atmospheric heating) will fuel the return of rain by afternoon, in the form of scattered showers and storms. Some storms may reach severe levels with heavy rain (isolated flash flooding?) and perhaps damaging winds. Along with moderate humidity, afternoon highs top out near 80 thanks to southerly winds near 10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Probability: 60%
Coverage: Scattered

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms linger into the evening hours, though they should be on the wane -- both in coverage and intensity -- as the night wears on. Overnight lows will settle into the mid-to-upper 60s. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the continued warm & humid weekend forecast...

Tomorrow (Friday): We get a blend of clouds and sun for Friday, with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing -- but they should be more isolated in nature than today. More sun during the daytime hours, however, should boost highs into the mid-80s, with pretty characteristic (though not extreme) humidity levels. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Spotty showers may linger into the evening hours Friday, so an umbrella is not a bad idea; many locations, however, should stay dry. Mild overnight lows will only drop to the low 70s. Confidence: Medium


Despite only partly sunny skies on Saturday, gusty winds from the southwest to above 20 mph at times will push afternoon highs to around 90 -- the warmest readings we've seen in over two weeks. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible (40% chance), with the greatest coverage likely north and east of the District. Partly cloudy and mild Saturday night, with lows near 70 throughout most of the area. Confidence: Medium

On Sunday, slightly less humid air filters into the region on the heels of northwesterly winds, limiting the possibility of precipitation and likely allowing for partly to mostly sunny skies, with slightly cooler afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 80s. Overnight lows, under partly cloudy skies, will drop into the upper 60s. Confidence: Medium

The outlook for Monday calls for mostly sunny skies with low chances for precipitation, and afternoon highs once again in the low-to-mid 80s, with overnight lows within a few degrees of 70. Confidence: Medium

By Josh Larson  | June 18, 2009; 1:15 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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"We'll wake to mostly cloudy skies and a few showers around during the morning hours."

To my surprise I woke to the sound of heavy rain and some thunder. The rain has only become heavier in the past ten minutes here in Silver Spring.

Posted by: Murre | June 18, 2009 6:12 AM | Report abuse

These morning thunderstorms seem to be a "new bonus feature" of DC weather.

Posted by: MDScot | June 18, 2009 6:37 AM | Report abuse

Cloudy, stormy, rainy weather returns.... When did it leave???? I musta slept through it. Question is; when is it ever gonna stop?

Posted by: linda_521 | June 18, 2009 6:47 AM | Report abuse

I'm with linda_521.

The rain is relentless and mind-numbing. Got hammered yet again out in Ashburn around 3:45am. Poured for a good solid hour. Some lightning and thunder too. These frequent early morning storms are causing some sleep deprivation too.

I think I have summer seasonal affective disorder. :(

Posted by: ThinkSpring | June 18, 2009 7:17 AM | Report abuse

I might have to stop reading this blog . . . all we've gotten for months is rain, rain, rain. UGH.

Posted by: liledjen4901 | June 18, 2009 8:16 AM | Report abuse


But don't worry, this blog will also be the first to tell you when this nasty weather is over!

Posted by: JJones-CapitalWeatherGang | June 18, 2009 8:35 AM | Report abuse

1.6" in this morning's downpours just south of Rockville.

Posted by: DOG3521 | June 18, 2009 9:36 AM | Report abuse

I've got a (supposedly-outdoor) event in Falls Church tonight around 9-9:30ish. Is there any indication of whether it will probably get moved to the rain location? (From this, it sounds like it will. *sigh*)

Posted by: | June 18, 2009 9:39 AM | Report abuse

Can anyone post up a link to a radar loop that shows the last 12 hours or so?

I am quite curious to see exactly what passed through here last night.

Posted by: wecndo | June 18, 2009 10:33 AM | Report abuse

Posted by: MKadyman | June 18, 2009 11:11 AM | Report abuse

I would like to politely say that you guys have missed both the daily and weekly forecasts this week. I believe you said this week would not be as bad rain-wise as last week, and yet I have received 2.42" so far this week and we still have several days to go. And you missed this morning's heavy rain as well.

Posted by: steske | June 18, 2009 11:38 AM | Report abuse

New line forming to the NW, looks to rumble on through in the next hour or two.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | June 18, 2009 11:50 AM | Report abuse


Our forecast that went up at 5 a.m. did mention showers in the morning... and yesterday's pm update mentioned the possibility of heavy rain after midnight, so not sure how you're claiming we missed the early morning rain forecast. Also, we've been talking about daily rain chances since Tuesday. Yes, the forecast posted Monday morning underestimated the rainfall this week...but that is it.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | June 18, 2009 12:04 PM | Report abuse

There's a decent chance (at least 50/50) the rain may be winding down around that time or at least taking a break. Best bet is to monitor the radar late this afternoon and this evening...

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | June 18, 2009 12:08 PM | Report abuse

Thank you for posting the loop.

How far south do you think that this line will extend? As far down I-95 as Dumfries perhaps?

Posted by: wecndo | June 18, 2009 12:10 PM | Report abuse


Our forecast early this morning maybe underplayed this morning's activity a bit, but I'd say yesterday's forecasts, both the one posted in the morning and the afternoon update, did pretty well. The forecast posted yesterday morning said that "Showers would remain likely" Thursday morning, and our PM Update post yesterday afternoon called for "showers ... some possibly heavy after midnight" and "more showers expected" Thursday.

Considering the hit-or-miss nature of some of this week's showers and storms, and the fact that the week is not over yet, it's probably too early to judge the overall area-wide comparison to last week.

Appreciate the critique and keeping us on our toes :)

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | June 18, 2009 12:14 PM | Report abuse

The issue is that I have evening commitments and we have all this darned lightning...I don't mind watching some good thunderstorms from here at home but I SURE DO MIND having to go out in it!!!...and it's always during the afternoon/evening when somebody wants me attending a long-ago-scheduled meeting or event when nobody ever knew there was going to be a thunderstorm that evening!

This weekend seems to be a splendid case in point, with two important dances tomorrow and Saturday nights. Getting to the dances won't be a problem...unless the severe weather chooses to hit right when I need to be "in transit"!

As I pointed out earlier this week, there's a bigger issue than my heavy INDOOR dance weekend. That's the issue of the OUTDOOR Columbia Pike Blues Festival Saturday afternoon and the OUTDOOR Alexandria Waterfront Festival Saturday and Sunday. Both of these outdoor festvals stand to be ADVERSELY affected by the fact that our coming weekend WILL NOT be a repeat of last weekend's SPLENDID weather for outdoor events!

With some luck we might be able to dry out by later in the weekend. However the Weather Channel is still forecasting rain in some form or other right across the board through early next week.

ThinkSpring, liledjen4901 and steske are definitely onto something here. We have mushrooms, SAD, swine flu and mold-related allergies running rampant this spring & summer.

Funny, but I haven't heard from AugustaJim and the other "rain weenies" for a while. I just wish we could have gotten all this rain as SNOW in the wintertime!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | June 18, 2009 12:26 PM | Report abuse

where is the Intellicast feature to choose a 24 hour loop? I don't see it.

In other news, a friend emailed me a pretty fanny rap video about Arlington, Va. I noticed that the artist Goremy has another video called Partly Cloudy that some of you might enjoy.

Posted by: spgass1 | June 18, 2009 12:33 PM | Report abuse

LOL that video is sooooo great.

Looks like some pretty wicked rain is///is about to befall the NoVA area.

Posted by: wecndo | June 18, 2009 12:46 PM | Report abuse

Looks like a small, but potent cell is heading our way. I feel bad for the people mowing lawns outside.

Posted by: KBurchfiel | June 18, 2009 1:24 PM | Report abuse

dark clouds here in SW DC near Georgetown... glad I just got back from lunch!

Posted by: jrodfoo | June 18, 2009 1:35 PM | Report abuse

Generally agree with CWG regarding forecast to date this week. Even the Monday forecast got the general gist of the week ok (unsettled, cool weather, followed by humidity / warmth later on).

Man, it is pouring outside my Dupont Circle office!

Jamie Y (aka Weather Checker)

Posted by: JamieYPotomac | June 18, 2009 1:49 PM | Report abuse

I think my rain gauge picked up about .4 inches in the last 25 minutes, putting it at 1.34 inches since midnight.

At least our plants are getting plenty of water. :-)

Posted by: KBurchfiel | June 18, 2009 1:52 PM | Report abuse

Raining here just like a tropical downpour.
Radar echo resembles a NE--SW oriented squall line or line of cells which could be individually moving SW-NE. West of us a huge MCS is moving from eastern KY into WV; there seems to be a prominent bow echo signature.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | June 18, 2009 2:10 PM | Report abuse

How much longer could be see these storms popping up?

In the past 5 minutes here in north Arlington, I have seen it be quite dark with downpours, to sunny (yes, bright sun albeit with showers), to cloudy again... Crazy.

Posted by: wecndo | June 18, 2009 2:32 PM | Report abuse

It's monsoon time again in Lake Ridge. A few more days of this, and it will be time to build an ark.

Posted by: meta2 | June 18, 2009 3:03 PM | Report abuse

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