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Posted at 8:20 PM ET, 06/ 2/2009

PM Update: Storms Back in Forecast, Severe?

By Ian Livingston

Summertime heat spread across the area today as south winds continue to pump up the humidity. Highs made it mainly to the upper 80s despite a fair amount of high clouds through the day. With all this heat and humidity, a line of severe thunderstorms developed, mainly impacting areas south and southeast of Fairfax County.

Tonight: We stay warm, muggy and partly cloudy overnight with a 20% chance a few new storms develop -- especially south of town. Thanks to still-rising dew points on a south wind, lows shouldn't fall much below the mid-60s in the suburbs to around 70 in D.C.

Tomorrow: We should see more clouds tomorrow, but there will also be some sun and continued warm temperatures. Highs will at least make a run at the mid-80s before showers and storms enter the picture. With a cold front approaching, a line or lines of thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening, and severe weather may be more widespread than today. The main threats would be damaging winds and large hail.

See Matt Rogers' full forecast through the weekend.

Hurricane Season: Colorado State University released an updated hurricane outlooktoday. The results? A slightly below average season, at least hurricane-wise. William Gray and Phil Klotzbach now expect 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. This is a decrease from 12, 6 and 2 in their previous forecast (which also decreased from the prior outlook). A cause for the lowered expectations? A developing El Nino, mentioned in our summer outlook as well as other hurricane forecasts.

By Ian Livingston  | June 2, 2009; 8:20 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: NatCast: Storms May Threaten Play

Comments

Developing El Nino ......hmmmmm.....when we have El Nino's that means we have warm and dry winters????? Please advise as I am already looking forward to December.

Posted by: stinkerflat1 | June 2, 2009 3:56 PM | Report abuse

stinkerflat1, I'm not really an expert on that issue, but I think El Nino can either give us a pretty good (snowy) winter or a pretty bad (non-snowy) one depending on the strength. 2002-2003 was a weak el nino and we got a ton of snow here. 1997-1998 was a very strong El Nino and we got nothing basically. Of course, there are other factors as well, but right now it looks like this Nino would be weak to moderate instead of a strong 97-98 type.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | June 2, 2009 4:10 PM | Report abuse

Ian: The "great" Henry Margusity said yesterday that with a weak to maderate El Nino, it could be a awesome winter for the east. Of course he says this in June so I take it lightly. I remember winter 2003!!! It seemed like storm after storm with the BIG presidents day storm to cap it all off.

Posted by: clintonportis17 | June 2, 2009 4:22 PM | Report abuse

Looks like the "DC split" going on today.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | June 2, 2009 4:31 PM | Report abuse

Seems tomorrow we may be in for a widespead Severe Weather outbreak!!

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE CWA ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS AN EFFECTIVE TRIGGER/LIFTER FOR CONVECTION.
MODELS FORECAST THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LEVELS OF CAPE...PERHAPS
LOCALLY OVER 2000 J/KG. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE
DAYTIME...POTENTIALLY INCREASING OVER 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. ONE OR
PERHAPS TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL...AND BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH ELEMENTS WILL COME
TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.-- End Changed Discussion --

Posted by: clintonportis17 | June 2, 2009 4:33 PM | Report abuse

@clintonportis17

Yep. Severe potential is definitely significant tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if the Storm Prediction Center raises the area's severe risk for tomorrow from slight to moderate at some point.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | June 2, 2009 4:39 PM | Report abuse

Tomorrow looks like somewhat similar a setup to last years June 4 outbreak, though that was a pretty extreme event around here.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | June 2, 2009 4:44 PM | Report abuse

Concerning tomorrow, with all the storms firing off to our west there's a chance convective debris will inhibit heating/instability for a good portion of tomorrow. Especially if they organize into a squall line.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | June 2, 2009 4:56 PM | Report abuse

Rain, rain, go away, come again in say, a week. Lighten up, okay, rain?

Posted by: jhbyer | June 2, 2009 5:24 PM | Report abuse

Nice outflow boundary line of showers on the radar moving NORTHWEST through Prince William County.

Posted by: ASColletti | June 2, 2009 5:28 PM | Report abuse

Relax. No thunderstorms north or west of the city. It will all be well south of DC

Posted by: MKadyman | June 2, 2009 5:57 PM | Report abuse

Most thunderstorm activity is to our south...but we have a pretty good outflow boundary tracking north through our area...possible later action???

With the severe thunderstorm watch expiring at 8 PM, my trip to tonight's dance looks OK...given no significant evening action...

Posted by: Bombo47jea | June 2, 2009 6:20 PM | Report abuse

Can anyone explain why I just got 20 notices of the flash flood warnin in Montomery county on my cell? Just repeated messaes sayin the same thing. I got it. I've been warned. No need to repeat yourselves.

Posted by: epjd | June 2, 2009 6:56 PM | Report abuse

another t-storm just formed over us in madison in about 15 min. this is amazing how fast they are forming.

Posted by: deveinmadisonva | June 2, 2009 7:25 PM | Report abuse

Seems the currents storm over madison will hit the same areas that got hit today. Looks rather intense on radar!!

Posted by: clintonportis17 | June 2, 2009 8:24 PM | Report abuse

Dulles hit a record high 91 and National hit 90 as well.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | June 2, 2009 8:24 PM | Report abuse

Very cool light show looking out my Alexandria [del ray] window, to the south and east. Lightning every few seconds, sometimes high in the sky, both cloud-to-ground and cloud-to-cloud. Radar shows those storms are quite a distance away, too.

Posted by: aaronsinger | June 2, 2009 9:09 PM | Report abuse

Can anyone explain why I just got 20 notices of the flash flood warnin in Montomery county on my cell? Just repeated messaes sayin the same thing. I got it. I've been warned. No need to repeat yourselve____________________________________
There is no flash flood warning for
Montgomery County.

Posted by: MKadyman | June 2, 2009 9:30 PM | Report abuse

Re. the interest in a possible El Nino pattern for next winter.

The southern mid Atlantic area usually finds itself on the northern side of an active southern storm track during El Nino winters, with frequent opportunities for wintry precip.

As Ian pointed out, there are always other factors in the equation but historically, neutral to El Nino patterns have produced our snowiest winters. La Nina winters are almost always bad news for snowlovers in our region.

97-98 produced a +2.3 ENSO during Jan. I received 33.20" of snow that winter and areas 20 miles to my south received 50+ inches.

02-03 produced a 1.2+ ENSO during Jan. I received 40.25" of snow for that winter.

The latest CFS ensemble mean, updated today, predicts a +2.0 ENSO for Jan. 2010.

Happy dreams everyone!!! and El Bombo, I am very happy that the heavy storms tracked to your south this afternoon and evening.

Posted by: AugustaJim | June 2, 2009 9:39 PM | Report abuse

Rotation near Spotslyvania?

Posted by: aaronsinger | June 2, 2009 9:46 PM | Report abuse

Heat lightning has been firing to the south for an hour now. Nice flashes of orange. Lately it's been flashing a little brighter, a little bluer.

Posted by: LaurainNWDC | June 2, 2009 9:57 PM | Report abuse

Yeah, I noticed a change in color, back and forth between white and orange. What causes that difference?

Posted by: aaronsinger | June 2, 2009 10:11 PM | Report abuse

aaronsinger, I think the color difference in this case has to do with haze or pollutants. 'Orange' lightning is further away and the light is traveling through more of that 'stuff' in between you and the bolt. With those storms continuing to train to our south someone may end up with a few months worth of rain!

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | June 2, 2009 11:14 PM | Report abuse

I'm up late due to a late start on part of an English presentation. Accuweather's radar shows a C-shaped formation of storms heading in our direction. Looks like I might have some trouble getting to sleep.

Did I just hear thunder?

Posted by: KBurchfiel | June 3, 2009 1:40 AM | Report abuse

Here we go again....Lightning, very loud thunder, and massive rainfall. Lately, it's hard to sleep around here because of the storms....

Posted by: david_in_stafford | June 3, 2009 1:56 AM | Report abuse

Loud thunder woke me up. Intermittent in nature; light rain is falling too. No warnings are about, however.

Posted by: Murre | June 3, 2009 2:50 AM | Report abuse

Centreville VA - For those interested after the fact Centreville had a t-storm with small hail roll thru around 2:00AM Wed morning. No damage; maybe another quarter inch of unwanted rain.
Perhaps a prelude to fireworks this afternoon?

Posted by: FIREDRAGON47 | June 3, 2009 9:03 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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