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Posted at 5:00 PM ET, 07/ 3/2009

Forecast: A Decent, But Not Totally Dry Weekend

By Camden Walker

30% chance of a shower/storm at fireworks time

* NatCast | Summer Fun With Weather for Kids | July 4th Guide *
* Outside Right Now? Radar, Temps & More: Weather Wall *


Today: Partly sunny. Isolated p.m. shower or storm? 79-83. | Tonight: Early-evening shower? Partly to mostly clear. Low-to-mid 60s. | Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny. Mid-80s. | Fireworks Time: A shower or storm? Upper 70s. Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers? Upper 70s. | A Look Ahead | Beach Forecast


In typical July fashion, we'll have a chance of mainly isolated showers and storms this afternoon and early evening, and then again tomorrow evening. Highs tomorrow won't be as hot as they sometimes are for July 4th, and the humidity will be quite tolerable as well. The end result will be a mostly nice Independence Day. But will a shower or storm pop up at just the wrong time? Sunday's forecast, meanwhile, is still coming into focus.

Radar: Latest D.C. area radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Friday): Partly sunny skies, fairly low humidity, and a refreshing breeze from the northwest at 10-15 mph will accompany highs right near 80 or a couple degrees above. Like yesterday, a couple isolated showers or storms could pop up in the afternoon and early evening (20% chance any given spot gets wet). I'll probably take the umbrella -- my luck is never good with these "popcorn" storms. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Any isolated showers and storms should wind down early in the evening. Like last night, we'll cool off rather quickly after sunset. Evening temperatures drop through the 70s. Overnight lows should end up in the low 60s (suburbs) to mid-60s (city) under partly to mostly clear skies. Confidence: Medium-High

How's that fireworks forecast looking? Keep reading...

Clouds from an isolated shower pass over the National Cathedral yesterday. By CWG photographer Ian Livingston.

Tomorrow (Independence Day): The bulk of the day looks quite nice. We'll be partly to mostly sunny, not very humid, and should see highs in the mid-80s. Not bad at all for July 4th, right? Now comes the catch. As we've been talking about all week, a few showers or storms could move in toward evening (30% chance). Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Partly cloudy with temperatures dropping into the upper 70s by fireworks time, along with that 30% chance you'll see a shower or thunderstorm during the evening or overnight. Lows in the 60s. Confidence: Medium

Sunday: A storm system tracking mainly to our south could pass close enough to give us scattered showers during the day and an afternoon thunderstorm. But there's a good deal of uncertainty with this system, so we'll need to fine tune the forecast as the weekend progresses. Partly to mostly cloudy skies may limit highs to the upper 70s with a touch more humidity in the air. Confidence: Low-Medium


Other than an early-evening shower or storm, Sunday night should be partly cloudy with overnight lows again in the 60s. A light northwest breeze will likely bring the humidity right back down after Sunday's temporary increase. Confidence: Medium

As of now, Monday looks partly to mostly sunny with pleasant humidity levels and highs in the low 80s (where's that summer heat?). For a change, showers and storms do not seem to be a threat. Hurray! Confidence: Medium

Partly to mostly sunny skies on Tuesday should again be joined with comfortable humidity and highs in the oh-so-nice lower 80s. Confidence: Medium


Heading to the Maryland or Delaware beaches for the weekend? Conditions should be fairly similar to those we'll experience in the immediate D.C. metro area, though temperatures will be a few degrees cooler with highs near 80.

If you're heading up to Cape May, N.J., you can also expect quite a bit of sunshine and generally dry weather, though temperatures will be a few degrees cooler still: in the upper 70s for afternoon highs Friday through Sunday.

And if your travels take you to Virginia Beach, the partly to mostly sunny forecast holds with afternoon highs a bit warmer, generally in the mid-to-upper 80s, but can't rule out increased clouds and a shower or t'storm Saturday night and Sunday. Conditions look much the same if you're heading towards the Outer Banks, except for milder overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Water temperatures are generally in the low 70s (north) to mid-70s (south).

By Camden Walker  | July 3, 2009; 5:00 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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How's about a mountain forecast too.

Posted by: sheepherder | July 3, 2009 7:11 AM | Report abuse

Here's to hoping we luck out of the showers this evening. I've got a large contingent of folks planning on going to the Nat's game tonight...

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | July 3, 2009 11:46 AM | Report abuse

Wow today has turned out nice so far!

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | July 3, 2009 1:21 PM | Report abuse

Sheepherder, I think the WaPo print edition used to have a separate mountain and beach forecast. Not sure if it still does.

I like checking NBC25 (Hagerstown):

At my location in the Blue Ridge Mtns, the low last night was 54.9F. High today was 75.4F. Current temp: 66.0F.

A light jacket and umbrella in the car might be a good idea.

The way things are going, I'm starting to think my guess of 28 days over 90F this summer might've been too high.

Posted by: spgass1 | July 3, 2009 7:12 PM | Report abuse

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