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Posted at 8:40 AM ET, 07/ 1/2009

Forecast: Chance of Showers, Thunder Today

By Dan Stillman

Jury still out for latter part of July 4th weekend

* Dew Points for Dummies | Wrapping Up VORTEX2 *


Today: Mix of sun & clouds. 50% chance of p.m showers/storms. 80-85. | Tonight: Evening showers/storms? Then partly to mostly cloudy. Mid-60s. | Tomorrow: Mix of sun & clouds. A couple showers or storms? Near 80. | A Look Ahead & July 4th


Every once in a while the forecast leading up to an important weather weekend like that of July 4th is a slam dunk, "bank on it" kind of forecast. That doesn't appear to be the case this time around, as some uncertainty regarding rain chances has crept into the outlook for the latter part of the holiday weekend. Temperatures and humidity, on the other hand, are almost certain to remain rather comfortable right on through the Fourth and beyond, while showers and storms are a legitimate threat later today.

Radar: Latest regional radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Wednesday): A similar look and feel to yesterday, with a mix of sun and clouds and a 50/50 chance you'll see a shower or thunderstorm (or two) pass through your neck of the woods during the afternoon or evening. Highs should hit the low 80s with just a hint of humidity. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: A passing shower or storm remains possible through evening. Otherwise, we're partly to mostly cloudy through the night as temperatures drop into the mid-to-upper 70s during the evening and to the mid-60s for overnight lows. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the holiday weekend....

Tomorrow (Thursday): Not a bad day for first-round play at the AT&T National, but not quite perfect. We'll keep a mix of sun and clouds (could be more clouds than sun) and a 30% chance of a couple passing showers during the day, maybe an afternoon or early-evening thunderstorm. Highs near 80 as we extend our streak of comfortable humidity. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: A lonely early-evening shower or storm, then partly cloudy with overnight lows in the low 60s (suburbs) to mid-60s (downtown). Confidence: Medium-High


Friday looks quite nice: Partly sunny with highs in the low 80s as a dry breeze from the west keeps the humidity low, and just an isolated shower or storm chance in the afternoon. Comfortable Friday night with lows in the 60s. Confidence: Medium

Much of Saturday should be just fine. We're talking partly to mostly sunny, highs in the low-to-mid 80s and humidity still in check. I'm leaning toward mostly dry conditions for fireworks time Saturday night, but for the moment can't rule out that a couple showers or storms enter the picture toward evening. Confidence: Medium

Sunday is when I think we have a better chance at seeing some showers or storms along with a fair amount of clouds and highs in the 80s. Yet, there's still a scenario that could give us a sunnier and mostly rain-free day. Confidence: Low

By Dan Stillman  | July 1, 2009; 8:40 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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The storm prediction center has us in the slight risk for severe weather, and a watch might be posted this afternoon just to the south. Any thoughts on potential for severe weather?

Posted by: CM_in_Fairfax | July 1, 2009 1:08 PM | Report abuse

The charts I see seem to have more of a rain threat on Saturday and a bit of high pressure on Sunday...However forecasting exact timing of airmass trough/instability showers and thunderstorms for the duration of this persistent cold-core low to our northwest is a rather problematical matter.

What's reasonably certain is that temperatures should remain rather cool as long as the cold low sits over or near us. This could continue for the next three to six days.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | July 1, 2009 1:14 PM | Report abuse

@ CM_in_Fairfax.

The mesoscale discussions I saw have a severe weather threat for our area and also for parts of New England. Weather watches/warnings are possible later today.

Bring in the VORTEX2 stormchasers; there's a 2% tornado threat.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | July 1, 2009 1:20 PM | Report abuse


Doesn't look like a widespread severe outbreak. But a better chance than yesterday, when we saw just some garden-variety t-storms, that a couple storms will produce hail and damaging winds.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | July 1, 2009 2:23 PM | Report abuse

WOW the UV is soooo high today. 12 and 13 gauge readings in the region. PLEASE use sunscreen and remember to avoid peak sun angle between 11am-3pm.... that is the timeframe when a burn can happen in 15 minutes if you are not protected.

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | July 1, 2009 2:53 PM | Report abuse

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