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Posted at 8:45 AM ET, 07/21/2009

Forecast: Weather Settles Into Steady State

By Matt Rogers

Daily shower chances; serious heat remains elusive

* NatCast | Outside Now? Radars, Temps & More: Weather Wall *


Today: Partly cloudy. 30-40% chance of showers. T-storm? Low 80s. Tonight: Mostly cloudy. 30% chance of showers/storms. 66-70. | Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/storms. 79-83. | A Look Ahead


After a wet spring and early summer, July has been a dry one around here. With a measly 0.26" of rain through yesterday, Reagan National is running about two inches below normal for the month so far. This moister pattern that arrived yesterday promises to persist through the week and put at least a little bit of a dent in our recent rain deficit with opportunities for showers and thunderstorms every day this week. Much of the rain, though, may be light and scattered in nature.

Today (Tuesday): Partly cloudy skies today lead to a 30-40% chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. Like yesterday, the best chances are likely to be in the afternoon into the evening. Light breezes with an easterly component should keep temperatures on the cooler side. Highs in the low 80s with moderate humidity. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: The clouds and moist air will prevent temperatures from dropping too far. Lows should be in the upper 60s. A 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms continues. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): Winds from the south and southeast bring in higher humidity as we continue with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Look for highs in the low-to-mid 80s. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: A steady forecast here with more clouds and 30% chance of scattered showers along with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Confidence: Medium


Thursday and Friday are looking like carbon copies of each other with mostly cloudy skies, a running 40% chance of showers/storms during the day (30% chance at night), and highs in the middle 80s with a fair amount of humidity. Lows should be around 70. Confidence: Low-Medium

The weekend is aiming to extend the work-week trend with mostly cloudy skies, that stubborn 40% chance of scattered showers/storms, humid conditions and highs in the mid-80s or maybe upper 80s. Confidence: Low-Medium

This same pattern -- anchored by an upper-level area of low pressure stalled over the Midwest and high pressure out over the Atlantic -- may keep the East Coast in a warm (but not too hot) and moist flow into next week.

By Matt Rogers  | July 21, 2009; 8:45 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Darn, I was planning a beach trip this weekend. Any idea if it's worth taking my chances and holding off on going until next weekend, or will it be more of the same - chance of showers/cloudy? Thanks so much for this blog, I read it daily!

Posted by: adamsmorgan1 | July 21, 2009 9:46 AM | Report abuse

"July has been a dry one around here" is certainly an understatement.

Posted by: CapitalClimate | July 21, 2009 10:12 AM | Report abuse

CapitalClimate: good post.

It appears we are a record breaking draught: previously driest July (1872) had 0.8 inch total. Now at IAD, 2/3 of the month gone, we got

The forecast does not look encouraging at all.

Posted by: LoudounGeek | July 21, 2009 10:27 AM | Report abuse

Wish LoudounGeek and the other rain-fiends would quit whining...I'm enjoying the dry month after the DELUGE we've had the previous three months! That said, Metro delay issues have recently been bugging me to a much greater extent than rainy weather and thunderstorms...last night I was late to a dance and had to leave after less than an hour due to some nasty switch disruption messing things up at Foggy Bottom...I'm signing up now for Metro alerts, so I can change plans and "scratch" a dance if massive delays hit Metro...radar generally gives me a good take on approaching precipitation, but won't cover the Orange Line.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | July 21, 2009 1:05 PM | Report abuse

Bombo, I certainly didn't consider LoudounGeek's post to be whining. I think the whining around here has been coming from you and your constant haranguing of anyone that dares post anything about rain. Your posts can sometimes be informative but your constant berating of folks on here is getting tiresome.

I personally wouldn't mind a little bit of rain, it's getting a bit brown and crispy out there.

Posted by: ana_b | July 21, 2009 1:41 PM | Report abuse

Just felt that I had to back up ana_b by at least drawing attention to myself as a "whiner".

Posted by: Havoc737 | July 21, 2009 7:41 PM | Report abuse

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