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Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 07/15/2009

Forecast: Summer Tries to Muster Some Sizzle

By Dan Stillman

Warmer today; more humid with rain chances Thurs.-Sat.

* Slow Start to Hurricane Season | Later: Wind Farms & Weather *


Today: Partly to mostly sunny. Upper 80s. | Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy. Upper 60s to low 70s. | Tomorrow: A few showers and storms? Humid. Upper 80s to near 90. | A Look Ahead


Here we are halfway through July, and three is the sum total of days this summer that National Airport has reached 90 or higher. Some spots may flirt with 90 today and tomorrow, yet neither day is guaranteed to reach or eclipse that mark. And then we cool off again for the weekend into early next week. So, with every passing day, it seems less and less likely that we'll reach or even approach our June-through-August average of 31 90-degree days. Anyone complainin'? Not I.

Temperatures: Current area temperatures. Powered by Weather Bonk. Map by Google. Hover over and click icons for more info. Click and hold on map to pan. Refresh page to update. See map bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Wednesday): Here we go with another pleasant and worry-free weather day. We'll be a little warmer than yesterday with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s. And humidity, while a bit higher than we saw with yesterday's incredibly dry air, will still be quite low for the middle of summer (dew points in the 50s). Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: The weather stays quiet through most of the night with partly to sometimes mostly cloudy skies. Warmer temperatures than last night -- low in the upper 60s (suburbs) to low 70s (downtown) -- will mean increased A/C use for many. While you sleep, more humid air will work its way into the area, and a shower or thunderstorm is possible toward morning. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend....

Tomorrow (Thursday): An unsettled pattern in the atmosphere brings the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms during the course of the day. After partly to mostly cloudy morning skies, some afternoon sun could bump highs to the upper 80s to near 90. For a change, humidity will be moderate to high. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Partly cloudy and muggy with the chance of an isolated shower or two and lows mainly in the low 70s. Upper 60s in the some of the cooler suburbs. Confidence: Medium


Humidity stays up in the moderate range for Friday as highs max out near the mid-80s. A 40-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms enters the picture for Friday afternoon into Friday night. Confidence: Low-Medium

The outlook for Saturday isn't ideal, with the potential for partly to mostly cloudy skies, periods of showers and thunderstorms, and highs only in the upper 70s to low 80s. However, the strength and track of the low-pressure center that would bring the precipitation is not yet set in stone, so neither is the forecast. Confidence: Low

Sunday seems more promising -- sunnier with decreasing humidity, decreasing rain chances and highs in the low-to-mid 80s. Confidence: Medium

By Dan Stillman  | July 15, 2009; 10:30 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Can Wind Farms Change the Weather?


Current temp. in Burke: 78.1 with partly cloudy skies.

Joe Bastardi of Accuweather is predicting the snowiest winter in the past five years for the Mid-Atlantic region from New York down to North Carolina. YAY!!!!
(But I know this prediction may not be right, so I am still a little cautious)

Posted by: Yellowboy | July 15, 2009 9:39 AM | Report abuse

LOL...Bastardi? The King of Overhype?

It's a little early for the carnival barker to start his winter snow machine.

Posted by: ThinkSpring | July 15, 2009 9:57 AM | Report abuse

Given we've had almost no snow in the past five winters, his statment isn't even an overstatement. An average winter of snow would be the "snowiest" in five years.

Posted by: ah___ | July 15, 2009 10:02 AM | Report abuse

I'm taking a group tubing out in Front Royal on Saturday, is it too early to say if we'll be affected if we're on the river between noon and 3?

Posted by: ana_b | July 15, 2009 11:46 AM | Report abuse

Can't be overly optimistic re that winter prediction...we're entering an El Nino and the last few El Ninos have been snow busts, with the 2003 storm a possible exception. Too darned much warm air advection means rain or snow/ice changing to rain.

When was our last really neutral "La Nada" winter? Perhaps 1996? Those are generally the snowy ones.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | July 15, 2009 1:52 PM | Report abuse


Unfortunately it is too early to say anything with much confidence. The forecast, in terms of timing and likelihood of precipitation, is more uncertain than usual for the next couple days into the weekend. Keep checking back and hopefully we'll be able to hone in on the forecast as the weekend approaches.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | July 15, 2009 2:10 PM | Report abuse

@ana_b, it's too early to say with confidence that you won't be affected, but I would expect any thunderstorm activity would be isolated in nature, as opposed to widespread, especially during that time of the day. In my opinion, precipitation chances increase as the afternoon wears on, though.

Posted by: Josh-CapitalWeatherGang | July 15, 2009 2:22 PM | Report abuse

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