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Posted at 8:40 AM ET, 07/16/2009

Forecast: Humid and Unsettled Weather Develops

By Josh Larson

Warm, at times thundershowery, through Monday

* NatCast: Muggy, Stray Storm? | Can Wind Farms Change Weather? *


Today: Clouds & sun. T'storms? Near 90. | Tonight: Muggy; stray shower. Around 70. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny; P.M. storms? Near 90. | A Look Ahead


The next five days will feature the possibility of unsettled weather as a trough (dip in the jet stream) develops over the eastern U.S .and energetic waves in the atmosphere spin through the area from time to time. While nearly every day features at least the chance for precipitation, a number of factors make it difficult to determine when and where precipitation may fall. It's even possible that some parts of the area will remain nearly precipitation-free (though with threatening skies at times) during this period. Today and Friday will be hot and humid, while some drying and cooling tries to take place for the second half of the weekend.

Radar: Latest regional radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Thursday): The first half of the day starts off partly to mostly cloudy with the possibility of a shower or two, but more sunshine will be seen as the day wears on -- boosting temperatures to near 90. Daytime heating and an approaching cold front may produce enough instability to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms (40% chance) during the late afternoon and evening hours. It will also feel more humid than in days' past. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: We'll see mostly cloudy skies tonight with a stray thundershower possible in a couple of spots, especially during the evening hours. Look for muggy overnight lows only dropping to near 70 in most locations. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the beginning of next week.

Tomorrow (Friday): We'll see a blend of clouds and sun on Friday with moderate humidity levels and afternoon highs once again around 90. Partially dependent on how much sun we see (the somewhat paradoxical effect of "daytime heating"), scattered thunderstorms (1/3 chance) may develop during the late afternoon and evening hours, a few of which have the potential to be severe in nature. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy skies will prevail on Friday night with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible (50% chance); bringing an umbrella with you if you head out for the evening is advisable. Rather muggy overnight lows once again struggle to drop much below 70. Confidence: Low-Medium


I anticipate more in the way of clouds than sun on Saturday, with the continued chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms (40% chance), especially during the afternoon and evening. It will not be as warm as the previous two days, with high temperatures much closer to 80 than 90. Isolated thundershowers may linger into the overnight with slightly cooler lows in the mid-60s. Confidence: Low-Medium

Weak high pressure will attempt to build into the area on Sunday, but it's still uncertain how much clearing/sunshine this may produce. I'll call for at least partly sunny skies, with little to no chance for precipitation, and rather comfortable (low humidity) afternoon highs in the low 80s, with overnight lows in the mid-60s. Confidence: Medium

The forecast for Monday is very much still up in the air (no pun intended) as models are having a tough time resolving the atmospheric setup; another wave in the atmosphere may push through the region during the day, bringing mostly cloudy skies, a 50/50 chance for showers and thunderstorms, and afternoon highs near 80. Confidence: Low

A word of warning: there are early indications that unsettled (and possibly fairly wet) conditions may be in store through much of next week...

By Josh Larson  | July 16, 2009; 8:40 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Haven't rained in a long while. This is totally insane. After seemingly raining everyday no rain in almost a month. Lawn is baked out, among other things.
Yeah summer been nice and cool so far but we need some rain!

Posted by: LoudounGeek | July 16, 2009 7:39 AM | Report abuse

More "much-needed-rain" whining...again!!!

Frankly the dry weather is fine with me. The water table is okay...what's not okay is this continual lightning threat when I need to go out to my dances...including tomorrow evening, Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Saturday.

In addition, Metro is planning more trackwork and big delays on the Orange Line between West Falls Church and Dunn Loring this weekend...can't they ever finish THAT project??? The Red Line is enough of a mess with the continuing post-crash investigations.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | July 16, 2009 12:14 PM | Report abuse

BTW...Kim Martucci projects tomorrow's thunderstorms to arrive here around 1 AM Saturday...I should be home from the dance by then unless Metro REALLY delays me!!!

And, according to, Bill Gates wishes to patent a plan to cut down hurricane strength by pumping up cold ocean water from the depths to the surface along a hurricane's projected path...IMO this figures to be too energy-intensive, but the physics is sound.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | July 16, 2009 1:03 PM | Report abuse

Unfortunately for those now wanting rain -- funny how quickly things change -- I think, as I expressed in my forecast, that a lot of places have the potential to remain mostly dry this weekend despite the chance for precipitation nearly every day. Next week, especially the mid to latter part, I think, offers better chances for more sustained, widespread precipitation.

Posted by: Josh-CapitalWeatherGang | July 16, 2009 1:51 PM | Report abuse

i miss the mild(er) weather and the rain!

Posted by: madisondc | July 16, 2009 2:00 PM | Report abuse

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