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Posted at 3:00 PM ET, 08/ 2/2009

Forecast: August Bringing Mugginess & Storms

By Brian Jackson

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Today: Sticky and gray, 70% chance of showers and t'storms. 82-86 | Tonight: Mostly cloudy, t'storms dwindle. 69-72. | Tomorrow: Warmer, 30% chance for t'storms, 87-90. | A Look Ahead


The dry beginning we saw to July will all but abandon us to start off August. Abundant moisture in the air, (I'm sure you've noticed), and normal summer heat spells stormy weather for the next couple of days. Now, don't expect to feel rain on your head every day this week, but we should see the radar light up with pockets of storms across the region daily through Wednesday. Some of the most widespread action may occur today.

Radar: Latest regional radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Sunday): Storm chances return today as a weak trough of low pressure develops east of the Blue Ridge. We'll be fairly cloudy for most of the day but some sun may peek through at times. Still, I think this will hold temperatures down in the low-to-mid 80s for most of us.

After scattered showers and storms in the morning and a likely break in the action early in the afternoon, more showers and thunderstorms may develop late in the afternoon (70% chance). As has been the case recently, southern Md. and the Eastern Shore may see some of them pack a punch though heavy rains are possible everywhere. Winds will be out of the south at 5-10 mph. Confidence: High

Probability: 70%
Coverage: Scattered-Widespread

Tonight: We'll have another fairly warm and moist night on our hands. Storms will continue but begin to phase out later into the night. Skies will be mostly cloudy and overnight lows will be right at or just above 70 degrees. Winds will briefly shift to out of the west/northwest towards morning at 3-8 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through mid-week...

Tomorrow (Monday): Beginning the work week, we'll also begin to heat back up. Partly sunny skies will allow us to reach afternoon highs around 90 degrees. Storm chances will be a little less, but with ample moisture we'll see at least a few storms rumbling through by dinnertime, with higher chances across central/southern Virginia. Winds turn out of the southwest at 5-10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Normal nocturnal warmth continues tomorrow night. Skies will be partly cloudy but with little wind to move the air it may feel a bit stuffy outside. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s (upper 60s in the cooler suburbs). Confidence: Medium-High


Tuesday and Wednesday continue to exemplify the sub-tropical pattern that we've moved into. Morning sun will give way to afternoon clouds with a 20% chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday, increasing to a 40% chance on Wednesday as a cold front approaches. Humid afternoon highs in the low 90s will be expected both days. Overnights remain partly cloudy with lows in the low-to-mid 70s.Confidence: Medium-High

By Brian Jackson  | August 2, 2009; 3:00 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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The new round of storms overnight gave us (in West Springfield) a NEW 0.84" of rain.

We are on the rain train here.


Posted by: bikerjohn | August 2, 2009 6:58 AM | Report abuse

Anyone awake in NW DC? Looks like its coming down in buckets on radar.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | August 2, 2009 9:33 AM | Report abuse

It's raining pretty hard here in Calverton.

Posted by: ana_b | August 2, 2009 9:39 AM | Report abuse

Yep, it is. Woke me up from a sound sleep in Glover Park 20 minutes ago. Didn't hear any thunder, but it was a deluge and it sounded like pea sized hail was pinging off the window. Can't confirm the hail though.

Posted by: ParkerGP | August 2, 2009 9:42 AM | Report abuse

Any guesses on rain total for today?

Posted by: steske | August 2, 2009 9:47 AM | Report abuse

Yesterday's forecast - slight chance of a shower. Confidence: medium to high. That's one way of putting it, guys.

Posted by: fleeciewool | August 2, 2009 9:50 AM | Report abuse


Here's what our forecast from yesterday said about today: "[Sunday]: Thunderstorm chances will be higher than today [Saturday] -- around 40% -- with somewhat greater chances (50%) west of town. Some places could also see a shower in the morning (30% chance)."

Admittedly, not a perfect forecast, but not "slight chance of a shower" as you've characterized it.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | August 2, 2009 10:16 AM | Report abuse


Generally I'd expect around 0.5" today, with some locations receiving 1-2".

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | August 2, 2009 10:19 AM | Report abuse

2.5 inches in the rain gauge this morning! Yay!

Posted by: weathergrrl | August 2, 2009 10:19 AM | Report abuse

I wonder why the Weather Channel's radar is blank today. It's OBVIOUSLY raining here!!!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | August 2, 2009 10:19 AM | Report abuse


I may have misread your comment. If you were referring to the rain overnight (last night) -- yes, we did say slight chance of storms... so we underestimated the rain, although it didn't rain everywhere.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | August 2, 2009 10:24 AM | Report abuse

A major downpour is passing over us with thunder and lightning. The winds picked up a bit, but nothing serious besides the buckets of rain which are falling.

Posted by: david_in_stafford | August 2, 2009 11:49 AM | Report abuse

I have picked up well over an inch of rain since last night here in Culpeper Va. 12hr Rainfall totals confirm this.

Posted by: RWJ1990 | August 2, 2009 12:08 PM | Report abuse

A little over .70 of an inch in S. Arlington since early this am.

Posted by: jojo2008 | August 2, 2009 2:03 PM | Report abuse

Help me out here. I live in western Montgomery. I checked the radar at 10 am to see a solid mass of rain on the radar approaching my area. I was in the general area all day and never saw a raindrop. I returned at 4:30 to see the same solid line just now moving off the coast. How in the world did I miss the rain? Not a drop at my house.

Posted by: MKadyman | August 2, 2009 5:12 PM | Report abuse

Similar thing happened here in Sterling, MKadyman. Looked like we'd get a ton of rain and we maybe had a bit of a shower. Looks like it shrank and then reformed over DC and beyond earlier today.

Posted by: kridgely | August 2, 2009 7:13 PM | Report abuse

Our heavy rain this morning cleared up after noon and we have had little since.

Still humid though...where's that nice cool cP air I ordered for August relief...are the "much-needed rain" folks holding it up west of the Blue Ridge?

Posted by: Bombo47jea | August 2, 2009 11:34 PM | Report abuse

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