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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 08/17/2009

Forecast: A Hot, Steamy Work Week

By Jason Samenow

Storm chances return mid-week...

* Weather Wall | Hurricane Tracking Station *
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* Later: Update on the Tropics & Hurricane Camille, 40 Years Later *

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly sunny and hot. 91-95 | Tonight: Partly cloudy, 67-72.| Tomorrow: Partly sunny, 20% chance of t'storms late. 90-94. | A Look Ahead

FORECAST IN DETAIL

"After taking most of the summer...a summertime pattern has finally been established across the forecast area." Such true words were written in the National Weather Service forecast discussion yesterday evening. For the next five days, the heat will be on, with afternoon highs around 90 or even a little higher. Humidity levels will also be up there, starting the week in the moderate range, but gradually becoming more uncomfortable mid-week when chances increase for some needed rain. Drier and cooler weather should return but perhaps not until the second half of the weekend.

Temperatures: Current area temperatures. Powered by Weather Bonk. Map by Google. Hover over and click icons for more info. Click and hold on map to pan. Refresh page to update. See map bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Monday): A breeze from the south along with strong sunshine will give us hot temperatures. Highs will climb into the low 90s (possibly mid-90s in a few spots). Humidity levels -- which will be sticky but not as bad as they can be (or will be in the coming days) -- will make it feel like the mid-90s at times. Confidence: High

Tonight: Partly cloudy and warm, with lows from the upper 60s in the cooler suburbs to the low 70s downtown. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend....

Tomorrow (Tuesday): It will be a day just like today, but with a few more clouds (especially in the afternoon) and a tad more humidity. The bottom line is that highs may be a couple degrees cooler but most won't notice the difference with the elevated humidity. By late afternoon, there's a 20% chance a thunderstorm will cool us down a little. Winds will continue from the south, at 5-10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: A few storms are possible (25% chance), mainly before midnight. Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy and muggy, with lows 69-74 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

A weak cold front approaches the region Wednesday which will end up stalling just to our north Thursday and washing out over the region. So the very warm, muggy air will stay in place with highs near 90 and overnight lows 70-75. The front's proximity will result in considerable cloud cover and may trigger scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms (40% chance) both days. It's also possible some of the moisture from Claudette works its way into the region (if this happens it will be more cloudy and wet, and not as hot). Confidence: Medium

A stronger cold front will move towards the region either late Friday or early Saturday. But before it passes, Friday promises to be another sultry day, with highs near 90. Thunderstorms are a possibility (30% chance) late Friday and Friday night, when lows will be around 70. Confidence: Medium

The cooler, drier air may start arriving Saturday or hold off a day if the front slows down. So we'll keep a 20% chance of thunderstorms in the forecast Saturday afternoon with highs 85-90. Overnight, less humid air will likely be working its way into the region, with lows 60-65 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Low-Medium

The most comfortable weather of the week may arrive Sunday. Pleasantly dry high pressure may build in from the northwest. The result could be a lovely afternoon, with highs in the low-to-mid 80s and low humidity. Let's keep our fingers crossed. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Jason Samenow  | August 17, 2009; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Tropical Update: Ana Ailing, Bill Blossoming

Comments

The tropics suddenly came alive during the past several days, but don't threaten the U.S. with any death or destruction....or beneficial rains.

The inland rain signature with Claudette is pathetic. Bill will track northward as a "fishstorm", because of Atlantic ridge weakness and an advancing voretex over the U.S. Remnants of Ana will likely die over Haiti and Cuba, but if unlikely survival occurs, Gulf regeneration is possible.

We are in the first stages of an Agricultural Drought. Last 60 day precip. has only averaged 50% of normal over much of the region. Resevoirs of water for cattle are getting low, pastures are parched, crops such as corn have reached a critical point in development but lack of available soil moisture threatens a very meager harvest.

All of this while the US Drought Monitor from NOAA indicates abundant short term soil moisture in some of the areas with greatest deficits. Of course, considering the source, both incorrect analysis and misleading information are not surprising.....of course they do give a disclaimer suggesting that their maps are not to be taken too literally (or seriously). Unfortunately, this is true with other products from NOAA.

Have a great Monday and enjoy the late summer doldrums!

Posted by: AugustaJim | August 17, 2009 8:33 AM | Report abuse

Ok CWG, I'm getting married on Saturday in Georgetown and need some dry weather between 6 and 6:30 pm for the ceremony! Think we'll be ok, as of now?

Posted by: zim94 | August 17, 2009 10:16 AM | Report abuse

P.S. Can we have a weddingcast for the week? :)

Posted by: zim94 | August 17, 2009 10:24 AM | Report abuse

Unfortunately AugustaJim and the other "much-needed-rain" folks [with a bit of help from Claudette!] are trying to dump a deluge on us for this week's Arlington County Fair!!! The outdoor midway opens Wednesday night and could be a washout if what I'm hearing is correct. Honestly, we don't need thunderstorms around when the fair is on.

The indoor fair begins Thursday afternoon. Location: Thomas Jefferson Community Center at Glebe Road and 2nd Street, South. The fair runs until 5 PM Sunday. Let's hope it doesn't rain all the time.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | August 17, 2009 11:47 AM | Report abuse

@zim94

Saturday afternoon/evening all depends on the timing of a cold front. If it passes through the region late Friday or early Saturday, then you should be in pretty good shape with drier air moving in. If it slows down, then there may be some more humidity and a slight chance of p.m. storms. Either way, you're probably looking at temperatures around 80 or so...shouldn't be super hot.

Stay tuned over the next few days as we get a better idea about the timing of the front.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | August 17, 2009 12:21 PM | Report abuse

Bombo:
I'm sure that many Arlington County folks would be very upset to stay dry because of the fair, but I and many others would be most happy to receive 100% of any rain headed toward Arlington.

I would love to receive 4-6 inches in frequent showers and thundershowers between now and the weekend.

Posted by: AugustaJim | August 17, 2009 1:39 PM | Report abuse

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