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Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 08/10/2009

Forecast: Sizzling Toward the Century Mark

By Dan Stillman

Record heat possible today; then a cooling trend

* Heat Advisory Noon to 8 PM (except far N&W: map) *
* Resources: Tips to Stay Cool From the CDC | EPA on Extreme Heat *
* New! Get CWG's Express Forecast by E-mail: Sign Me Up *
* Weather Gang Live Chat About the Heat: 2 p.m. *


Today: Really hot. Humid. 95-100. 20% chance of a late-afternoon storm. | Tonight: Muggy. 30% chance of an evening storm. 73-79. | Tomorrow: Hot & humid. 30-40% chance of showers/storms. 88-95. | A Look Ahead


After yesterday's scorching but not record-setting high of 96, at both Reagan National and Dulles, the mercury could very well go even higher today. The Aug. 10 records of 98 at National and 96 at Dulles (set in 1943 and 2001, respectively) are most certainly in play. As temperatures come down for the rest of the week and into the weekend, uncertainty goes up, at least in terms of cloud cover and shower and thunderstorm chances.

Today (Monday): Welcome to Day 2 of our heat wave -- just as hot, if not hotter, than the first. Mostly sunny skies will provide little shade as morning temperatures rise quickly through the 80s on their way to afternoon highs in the mid-90s to near 100. With dew points in the upper 60s to near 70, afternoon heat indices should max out near 100-105. Wouldn't a cooling shower a thunderstorm be nice? Chances for any given location are around 20% during the late afternoon. Confidence: Medium-High

Probability: 20-30%
Coverage: Isolated

Tonight: A slightly better chance (30%) for a thunderstorm during the evening. Then, partly to mostly cloudy overnight with lows in the mid-to-upper 70s. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend....

Tomorrow (Tuesday): We'll wake up tomorrow with a cold front approaching from the north and west. That probably means more in the way of clouds -- at least partly cloudy skies -- which should keep temperatures down a little. Highs could go as high as the low-to-mid 90s or may only make it to near 90 depending on how much sun we see. Humidity remains high and the front could trigger isolated to scattered showers and storms during the course of the day into the evening -- a 30-40% chance you'll see one where you are. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: A 30-40% chance of a shower or storm continues during the evening as the cold front moves through the metro area. Shower/storm chances diminish overnight and toward morning with lows in the 70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Confidence: Medium


For Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, temperatures come back down to within a few degress of average with highs in the 80s and nighttime lows in the mid-60s to near 70. Humidity should ease a bit as well, though still probably in the moderate range. A cold front stalls out close enough to our south that we can't rule out a chance (about 20-40%) of showers and storms each day, and cloud cover may range anywhere from partly sunny to mostly cloudy depending on the proximity of the front. Confidence: Low-Medium

With no significant weather systems on the maps as of yet for the weekend, I don't see much reason to call for anything other than the usual summer fare -- partly sunny, highs in the mid-80s to near 90, and a chance of mainly afternoon/evening isolated to scattered showers/storms. Confidence: Medium

By Dan Stillman  | August 10, 2009; 10:30 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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90 at Dulles, 91 at Leesburg, and 88 at Reagan at this time. Looks like the whole region, even west of DC, may be flirting with the century mark.

If you don't mind, that cooling thunderstorm would be quite nice today.

Posted by: Sterlingva | August 10, 2009 10:11 AM | Report abuse

We're already well on our way, 88 at 9:52 is 4 degrees higher than yesterday. I think we'll tie the record today, maybe make 99. Many places will definately hit 100 today, I just don't know if we will "offically".

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | August 10, 2009 10:11 AM | Report abuse

I put together some numbers on 100 degree days the last decade late last night. We're definitely still in play and perhaps well on the way at places like Dulles (90 at 10 is a solid benchmark). Now let's just keep clouds at bay the next 5 hours. ;)

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | August 10, 2009 10:17 AM | Report abuse

Quite a bit of cloudiness to the west now with some showers/storms in WV. Looks like it's going to be hard to escape the influence all together. Could hold temps back a bit this afternoon.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | August 10, 2009 11:30 AM | Report abuse

Extremely warm out...A/C is okay here. Will cloudiness to west keep heat down?

Altocumulus floccus clouds this morning moved away towards east. 92F.

Tropical: System near Cape Verde could intensify somewhat; Pacific storm Felicia weakens as it moves towards Hawaii. Biggest issue has been typhoon affecting Taiwan/China; 100 inches of rain reported in one area of Taiwan. ITCZ generally around or just south of 10N w. several tropical waves. Cape Verde storm is only system showing threat of intensification.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | August 10, 2009 11:45 AM | Report abuse

Dulles is showing 101 now?? Something has to be wrong there, no?

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | August 10, 2009 1:01 PM | Report abuse

If you think it's hot outside, try thinking about how hot it is being a Congressman or a Senator who must listen to their constituants, Obama, and their own political party. You can't please everyone, and still do the right thing

Posted by: sanfordflg | August 10, 2009 1:45 PM | Report abuse

That's quite a big jump at Dulles, I'd be skeptical of an 8 degree jump mid-day. But hey, stranger things have happened, such as sanford's post.

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | August 10, 2009 1:58 PM | Report abuse

That's more like it, dropped to 96 at IAD

Posted by: Brian-CapitalWeatherGang | August 10, 2009 2:00 PM | Report abuse

I wonder if our President will make yet another smart comment on how we handle the heat in DC considering his commentary on our ability to handle the snow and ice.

Posted by: NoteToSelf | August 10, 2009 2:14 PM | Report abuse

It's hot hot hot, with a 90% chance of passion

Posted by: hereNow | August 10, 2009 2:23 PM | Report abuse

It's cold in this building. Tell someone not to mimic the winter already please!

Posted by: cbmuzik | August 10, 2009 3:14 PM | Report abuse

Today here in northern ****** the day started out at a refreshing 62 degrees, humidity less than 25% with a light breeze out of the southeast. Overhead, deep blue skies prevail. Perhaps a refreshing dip in a cool, crystal clear river later in the week. Feel cooler already, don't you?

Posted by: slim2 | August 10, 2009 4:21 PM | Report abuse

It's cold in this building. Tell someone not to mimic the winter already please!

Posted by: cbmuzik | August 10, 2009 3:14 PM

Brrrr... so cooolddd! (getting coat, puts on and zips all the way up!) Ahhhh... now that's more like it! Don't even think of putting me outside!

Posted by: RedCherokee | August 10, 2009 4:48 PM | Report abuse

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