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Posted at 10:25 AM ET, 08/ 5/2009

Forecast: Typical Summer Stuff, Then Real Heat?

By Dan Stillman

* NatCast | Changing Hurricane Forecast | Climate Change & Jellyfish *
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Today: Partly sunny. 30% chance of p.m. storms. Upper 80s to near 90. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy. 50% chance of showers/storms. Upper 60s to low 70s. | Tomorrow: 40% chance of showers/storms. Mid-or-low 80s. | A Look Ahead


I know this space often serves as a summary of the weather for the next several days. But to be honest, the forecast through Saturday is mostly typical summer stuff. So while I encourage you to read the daily details below for planning purposes, I'd like to highlight here three numbers: 104, 103 and 102. These were yesterday's highs in Lawton and Enid, Okla., and Childress, Texas, respectively. It's this air mass -- though likely a less extreme version of it -- that has its eye on our area for Sunday into early next week.

Temperatures: Current area temperatures. Powered by Weather Bonk. Map by Google. Hover over and click icons for more info. Click and hold on map to pan. Refresh page to update. See map bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Wednesday): You've heard many a forecast like this as of late: Warm and humid with a mix of clouds and sun, highs in the upper 80s to near 90, and a chance (about 30%) that you'll see an afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm. Confidence: Medium

Probability: 30%
Coverage: Isolated-Scattered

Tonight: With mostly cloudy skies, we'll see our 30% chance of evening showers and storms increase to near 50% overnight and toward morning. Lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend....

Tomorrow (Thursday): Along with mostly cloudy skies, showers and storms could continue through the morning (40% chance) and may linger into the afternoon. Afternoon skies could eventually turn partly sunny as lower humidity works its way in courtesy a breeze from the northwest, but the timing of any clearing is uncertain. If the sun breaks through early enough, then highs should make the mid-80s. If not, then maybe only the low 80s. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: We can look forward to one of the cooler nights we've had in a while. Thanks to the lower humidity and partly to mostly clear skies, lows drop into the 60s area-wide. Confidence: Medium-High


Friday offers partly to mostly sunny skies as humidity continues in the not-so-bad range and highs top out somewhere in the 80s. Afternoon/evening shower or storm chances should be down to around 20% or less. Confidence: Medium-High

Saturday we get into flow from the southwest, which means humidity back in the moderate-to-high range and highs probably in the mid-to-upper 80s. A warm front pushing through could produce a fair amount of clouds and a few isolated showers or storms. Confidence: Medium

With a steamy air mass moving in from the west, Sunday and Monday look good for highs in the 90s. Mid-to-upper 90s are a distinct possibility, but it's too early to confidently make that call. To go with the heat, we'll have some of that classic D.C. haze, high humidity and probably only isolated chances of a cooling storm. Confidence: Medium

By Dan Stillman  | August 5, 2009; 10:25 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Sleeping Through Sunlight: Not a Success


Don't forget to do a GameCast for D.C. United v. Real Madrid on Sunday. 55,000 ticket buyers will want to know just how hot and humid FedEx Field will be in the late afternoon.

Posted by: Miles_Standish_Proud | August 5, 2009 10:21 AM | Report abuse


Yep... that UnitedCast will be posted early Sunday morning.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | August 5, 2009 10:27 AM | Report abuse

There seem to be far more UnitedCast than NatCast comments. This ought to change if/when the Nats become a REAL contender [When will that EVER be???].

Sterling is minimizing severe chances later today; the rain may hold off until dinnertime or later, but anticipated shortwave development on the stalled front could keep it going until tomorrow morning or even midday once it arrives. The preliminary extended forecast predicts heat early next week followed by a possible cooldown at midweek.

Tropical scene: The good news is that the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf remain quiet. The bad news: If anything does develop, position of the huge Bermuda High could keep it moving westward until it nears the U.S. East Coast anywhere from Florida to the Carolinas. In other words, any sustainable named cyclone could become another "Andrew", but possibly on a slightly more northerly track. The question is whether there's going to be enough upper-level westerly wind shear to inhibit anything which forms. Thus far, the ITCZ is near latitude 10N and the only other features on the tropical map are the huge Bermuda high, a large low over the Darien region of Panama/Colombia, and the continuous procession of westward-moving tropical waves along and north of the ITCZ.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | August 5, 2009 1:12 PM | Report abuse

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