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Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 09/17/2009

Forecast: Continued Cool, Damp & Dreary Today

By Josh Larson

Friday's weather somewhat nicer; Saturday a winner!

* Summer or Fall: Which Is It? | Freedman, Morano Clash on Climate *
* Outside Right Now? Radar, Temps & More: Weather Wall *


Today: Overcast & cool. Occasional light rain or drizzle. Near 70. | Tonight: Overcast; spotty drizzle. Low 60s. | Tomorrow: Partial clearing late; warmer. Low 80s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


My advice: if you don't like the weather at a particular time in the coming days, wait 12 or 24 hours and it should be more to your liking. Case in point: today's thick overcast skies, cool temperatures and occasional light rain and drizzle; tomorrow's noticeably milder -- though still mostly cloudy conditions; Saturday's brilliant sunshine and fall-like temperatures. And, I wouldn't be shocked if we're back to clouds and showers again by Sunday, though confidence is low at this point. A little something for everyone, I guess.

Radar: Latest regional radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Thursday): High pressure stationed our north will allow for a continued onshore (from the east) flow of air today. That will keep us socked in overcast skies and bring the chance for some occasional light rain or drizzle throughout the day. High temperatures will struggle to nudge much higher than the 70-degree mark. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: We hold onto overcast skies tonight with the continued chance for a little bit of light rain or drizzle -- though much of the night may be dry. Overnight lows will drop to the low 60s. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for what the weekend has in store...

Tomorrow (Friday): The day will start out with overcast skies, though winds from the southwest should make for a noticeably warmer day than today; I think highs will top out in the low 80s. Some partial clearing is possible later in the day, so that we may even have partly sunny skies by late afternoon -- though timing clearing in a situation like this is notoriously difficult. At any rate, a much more "summery" day than today. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Expect a partly cloudy and dry evening Friday night, with overnight lows ranging from the upper 50s across the cooler spots to the low 60s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High


It's possible that Saturday will be as sunny as today is cloudy. With high pressure overhead, plan on abundant sunshine and decidedly fall-like highs in the low-to-mid 70s. It will be clear and crisp on Saturday night -- so bring the jacket if you're heading out -- with overnight lows ranging from the low 50s across the 'burbs to the mid-50s downtown. Confidence: High

Though as I write this the official NWS forecast is for "mostly sunny" skies on Sunday, a look at the latest computer models gives pause for concern for those hoping for a sunny, dry day. An area of showers will likely develop to our south and west and where exactly these develop will be key. I think mostly cloudy skies are a good bet, with a chance of showers by late in the day. Highs should be in the low 70s with overnight lows in the upper 50s. Confidence: Low-Medium

Though confidence remains on the low side, I believe we'll see mostly cloudy conditions on back-to-work Monday, with a 40% chance of showers. Highs will probably be in the mid-70s with milder overnight lows in the mid-60s. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Josh Larson  | September 17, 2009; 10:30 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Wasn’t sure where to post this so I’ll give this a shot.

You guys are mentioned in Jack Williams new book, The AMS Weather Book, The Ultimate Guide to America’s Weather. It’s on the Forecasting chapter, page 165. Don’t have time right now to type out everything but it says, “The Capital Weather Gang blog on the Washington Post web site offers an example of how this can be done.”

Talks about confidence levels. Jason Samenow is mentioned and quoted.

That is something I like about this site, the confidence levels you give.

Posted by: jaybird926 | September 17, 2009 8:17 AM | Report abuse


Thanks for pointing that out and for the nice comment. We're going to be doing a write-up on Jack Williams book in the not too distant future.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | September 17, 2009 9:45 AM | Report abuse

not too nice in capitol hill this morning

Posted by: madisondc | September 17, 2009 10:40 AM | Report abuse

Rather raw here in South Arlington, too.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | September 17, 2009 12:05 PM | Report abuse

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