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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 09/28/2009

Forecast: Fall to Bring Its Finest

By Jason Samenow

Mild with a slight chance of showers today

* Temps & More: Weather Wall | Hurricane Tracking Station *
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Today: Some sun, chance of showers, breezy. 75-79. | Tonight: Breezy and cool. 50-55. | Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny. Breezy. Near 70. | A Look Ahead


Just over 10 days ago, CWG commenter schrute inquired: "Are there any signs of impending cooler day time temps up ahead? I'm tired of these near 80s (or in the 80s) temps. I would love to see temps start getting closer to the 60s instead of the 80s." Your wish is my command :) After today, for the better part of the week ahead, day time temperatures will be in the 60s to near 70, with overnight lows in the 40s and low 50s. The lone downer in the forecast is a chance of rain on Saturday, for the second straight week.

Radar: Latest regional radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Monday): Despite the 30% or so chance of showers -- mainly late morning through mid-afternoon -- it won't be bad day to begin the week. Intermixed with the cloud cover will be some sunshine. And a bit of a warm push ahead of the coming cold front will help temperatures well into the 70s. Winds will kick up out of the southwest at 15-20 mph, with some higher gusts. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Skies will gradually clear overnight and it will turn noticeably cooler. Lows will range from 48 or 49 in the cooler suburbs to the mid-50s downtown. A wind from the west will blow at 10-20 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the work week

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Welcome to "real" fall. A cool Canadian air mass building into the region from the west will only allow high temperatures to 65-70 though there will be a good amount of sunshine mixed in with some clouds. A gusty wind from the west 15-25 mph (with some higher gusts) will give the air a chill, especially in the shade. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: A few clouds will probably be around, especially late, as a reinforcing shot of cool air passes through the region. It will be breezy (and chilly), with lows generally in the upper 40s (suburbs) and low 50s (downtown). Confidence: Medium-High


Cool and crisp high pressure establishes itself over the area Wednesday through Friday. The result will be splendid sunshine and refreshing temperatures each afternoon from 65-70. A bit of a breeze from the northwest on Wednesday will slacken Thursday into Friday. At night, temperatures will dip into low-to-mid 40s in the cooler suburbs to near 50 downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

Moisture streaming out ahead of an area of low pressure in the Midwest will provide a chance (40% chance) of intermittent showers on Saturday. At this point, it's not looking like an all-day steady rain. Mild air ahead of this storm system may allow temperatures to work their way into the 70s especially if we get some sunny intervals (50% chance). Showers remain possible (50% chance) overnight, with lows 55-60. Confidence: Medium

At this juncture, Sunday appears like it will be variably cloudy and most likely dry, with highs around 70. Confidence: Low-Medium

By Jason Samenow  | September 28, 2009; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Reflecting on Hurricane Gloria


You guys can have the week off ;-)

Posted by: jaybird926 | September 28, 2009 6:44 AM | Report abuse

Woohoo!!! Finally, Fall weather and I don't have to go to Tampa! So, how does cool weather affect mosquitos? I am eager to get them to go bye bye. Do we need some weather below freezing in order for them to die off?

Posted by: authorofpoetry | September 28, 2009 8:32 AM | Report abuse

Weather like this is the payoff for sticking around through August.

Posted by: wiredog | September 28, 2009 9:09 AM | Report abuse

Beautiful morning! What do you think of the showers approaching from the west? Will the mountains take care of them? (Dog blessed a rug last night, cleaned and hanging on the deck to dry... should I be concerned?) CWG is great. Keep up the good work.

Posted by: dprats21 | September 28, 2009 9:16 AM | Report abuse

West Springfield - Sat/Sunday rainfall total: 1.85"

Posted by: bikerjohn | September 28, 2009 10:04 AM | Report abuse

I think I'm finally dry after sitting through the VT/Miami game on Saturday. Based on what I was seeing from the Weatherbug station down there I think we got at least 3/4 of an inch of rain during the game, at times it was an absolute deluge. Totally didn't mind though, the win was absolutely worth it.

Yesterday in Blacksburg could not have been more different. Beautiful blue skies, clouds zipping by and a lovely breeze, a perfect fall day.

Posted by: ana_b | September 28, 2009 10:56 AM | Report abuse


This is one of those cases where the 30% chance in the forecast above is the best we can say. Otherwise, watching radar is your best bet in terms of tracking how well the showers stay together. At the moment it does look like a legit 30% chance, in that some of the showers do appear to be surviving the mountains.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | September 28, 2009 10:58 AM | Report abuse

@authorofpoetry...You generally have to wait for first frost and even then we aren't home free. A few mosquitoes will hibernate over winter in leaf litter etc., and they are ready [and very hungry!] next spring to continue with feeding and egg-laying. However, most of the mosquitoes WILL die off with the first frost, though the "hibernators" may take advantage of the following Indian-summer warmth to get a mosquito style "quarter pounder" of human blood in order to make it through the long winter's sleep. The great majority of mosquitoes overwinter as eggs, larvae or pupae underwater.

Yesterday's quick rain showers caught me unprepared on my W&OD hike. I thought the residual showers were supposed to occur THIS AFTERNOON with the frontal passage. We must have had an airmass trough vorticity lobe passing through here during the afternoon yesterday. I thought that both the TV mets and CWG had called for the nice warm afternoon that often precedes a frontal passage in the wake of a strong low, but CWG might have called for passing showers.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | September 28, 2009 1:10 PM | Report abuse

Thanks, Bombo for the insightful and educational response.

Posted by: authorofpoetry | September 28, 2009 2:05 PM | Report abuse

Brief but intense shower in NW Washington. About .15 worth.

Posted by: MKadyman | September 28, 2009 3:49 PM | Report abuse

Make that NW Montgomery County.

Posted by: MKadyman | September 28, 2009 3:51 PM | Report abuse

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