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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 09/26/2009

Forecast: A Second Half of Saturday Soaker

By Jason Samenow

* Elements Not Worth Braving: NatCast | Outside Now?: Weather Wall *
* Grading Our Summer Outlook | A Rain-Hurricane Season Link? *


Today: Rain developing in the afternoon. 65-70. | Tonight: Rain. Near 60. | Tomorrow: Rain ending, partial clearing late. 70-74. A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


We're in for a good old-fashioned soaking today (starting mostly this afternoon). The timing is unfortunate, but the rain is needed. As I mentioned Thursday, we're running about a 5" rainfall deficit since July -- though we may be able to cut into about a quarter of that this weekend. The dry windows to get any outdoor work done this weekend will likely be this morning and Sunday afternoon.

Radar: Latest regional radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Saturday): We should begin the day rain-free for at least a few hours. Rain will likely develop between the late morning and mid-afternoon from west to east. By late afternoon, steady rain should have begun everywhere. Overcast skies will prevent high temperatures from exceeding 70...with 60s for most of us most of the day. Winds will be from the east at around 10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Steady rain is likely, and it may be heavy at times. By morning, storm rainfall totals should generally be 1-2." Temperatures will slowly drop down towards 60. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast for tomorrow and into early next week...

Tomorrow (Sunday): We'll have a chance of a few lingering showers in the morning (30%), before we begin to dry out in the afternoon. Skies will probably be slow to clear, with just partial sunshine filtering in by mid-to-late afternoon. Highs should range from 70-75, depending on the amount of sunshine that emerges. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow Night: Look for partly cloudy skies and seasonably comfortable temperatures. Lows should drop to the mid-50s in the suburbs to around 60 downtown. Confidence: Medium-High


A strong cold front will slice through the region from the west on Monday. This will result in increasing clouds and a chance of showers (40%) from mid-day through the early evening. Some mild air ahead of the front will lift high temps towards the mid-70s. Overnight, it will be breezy and cooler, with lows 50-55 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium-High

Beautiful, crisp fall air moves in Tuesday as highs struggle to reach 70 despite the return of partly to mostly sunny skies. Tuesday night has the potential to be quite chilly, with lows in the 40s in most suburban locations to around 50 downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

By Jason Samenow  | September 26, 2009; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Natcast: (Most) Rain Outta Here Before First Pitch


Looks like the moisture is breaking up a bit over the mountains, is there any update on when we are going to see rain here in the dc metro area?

Posted by: snowlover | September 26, 2009 8:54 AM | Report abuse

snowlover, by 2pm you'll likely see a much different radar picture. Don't go by what you see now - the atmosphere is juicing up invisibly at the moment! everyone with outdoor plans/games this morning--finish them by 2pm! :)

Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | September 26, 2009 10:30 AM | Report abuse

New NAM is pretty intense.. 1.5-2"+ for many. Radar looks great out west for rain lovers.

Posted by: Ian-CapitalWeatherGang | September 26, 2009 11:00 AM | Report abuse

As I have said before, this "soaker" is EXTREMELY ILL-TIMED...for when I'm trying to get to my bus stop for the HUGE Tom Cunningham swing dance this evening @ Glen Echo!!! [Since the dance is indoors it shouldn't be affected unless a HUGE FLASH FLOOD hits Glen Echo Park or unusual severe autumn thunderstorms trigger a massive power failure up there. However, it's pretty bad to be "lead-footed" on the Spanish Ballroom dance floor because my feet get soaked walking to the bus stop to get my bus to the Metro station so I can meet the party picking me up at Dunn Loring.]

The message: Sure wish the "much-needed-rain" crowd could "time" these big storms differently so they don't always have to hit me on a very important dance night! This skewed little application of Murphy's Law seems to hit us with FAR MORE FREQUENCY than it ought to. In the meantime, I'm sort of hoping the West Virginia Appalachians & the "Washington Split" break up this darned rain pattern a bit before it waterlogs me around 6:30 PM on my trip to the bus stop.

Honestly, the timing on this particular storm is ABSOLUTELY ATROCIOUS, at least for my dance schedule!!!

Posted by: Bombo47jea | September 26, 2009 12:15 PM | Report abuse

Virginia Blue Ridge Report

Yesterday (Friday) morning, we picked up about 3/8" of rain. NBC4 had a report on the news about an increase in stink bugs. We're seeing some inside the house again.

Today, I went for a jog at 11:30a and ended up a bit wet from light rain. We were thinking of going to the Mountain Heritage Festival in Harpers Ferry, but tomorrow looks like the better afternoon. Currently, it's getting foggy and 53.2F.

Posted by: spgass1 | September 26, 2009 1:13 PM | Report abuse

Honestly, the timing on this particular storm is ABSOLUTELY ATROCIOUS, at least for my dance schedule!!!

Calm down Fred Astaire. Take an umbrella and you should be fine.

Posted by: Axel2 | September 26, 2009 1:57 PM | Report abuse

Any chance the rain is over before say 5:00 am tomorrow morning?

Posted by: snowlover | September 26, 2009 2:49 PM | Report abuse

I actually don't mind having a soaker; we haven't seen a good one in a while.

I am especially looking forward to the weather next week! It's about time for fall, and time for "80s-and-humid" to end.

Posted by: Sterlingva | September 26, 2009 3:46 PM | Report abuse

How much do you want to bet this rain stays with us all week? Or at least a few days. It happened earlier in the summer when a front off the coast kept some clouds and rain for a few days instead of it moving along after a day.

Posted by: jojo2008 | September 26, 2009 6:54 PM | Report abuse

It doesn't look like this will amount to much. At least in the western suburbs. It is barely raining now and I have had only .21 inches so far.

Posted by: MKadyman | September 26, 2009 8:38 PM | Report abuse

It's been raining steadily since early afternoon here in Lake Ridge. Not quite enough for the creek behind our building to make us waterfront property, but it will be interesting to see how high the water gets by tomorrow morning.

Posted by: meta2 | September 26, 2009 8:54 PM | Report abuse

I hope that you don't have a dance to go to. God forbid that you get your feet wet.

Posted by: MKadyman | September 26, 2009 9:18 PM | Report abuse

How could I ever possibly dance when it's raining outside!?

Posted by: Havoc737 | September 26, 2009 9:23 PM | Report abuse

I just got home from Bristol. The rain started there around 11am, steady, heavy, with the periodic thunder and some lightning. Left Abingdon around 3:30. Made good time on 81 surprisingly, pulled into my house in Centreville at 9pm, with one quick stop for gas, and a detour through Salem to avoid an accident backup.

However, it was a bit of a white-knuckle drive. The rain never, ever let up. Relentless is the best word. Most drivers kept up their speed at a reasonable pace, but there was the random panicked driver who would mess the whole pace up. On the southbound side of 81 around Roanoke I think, I saw a car on the other side spin out and slide into the grassy center between the highway - and this section had a bit of a dip and it slid backwards. It was unbelievable, and quite startling to see it - like slow motion. I suspect speed was involved but who can say.

There were a few times I swore the road disappeared. That's just a bad feeling.

I thought I'd had a bit of a rough time driving over the mountain on 58W between Danville and Bristol yesterday afternoon - the fog was as thick as pea soup, and up at that level it's just a two-lane curvy road. But, no, the drive today was far more stressful. I couldn't believe we didn't get a single break in the heavy rain. Just didn't happen.

Glad to home and on my couch, I can tell you that.

Posted by: bobosnow | September 26, 2009 10:37 PM | Report abuse

Sat in the rain in Blacksburg 2day. It basically poured the entire game & all the way home to Spotsy, but it was worth it 2 watch the 31-7 whopping of Miami.

Posted by: VaTechBob | September 27, 2009 12:16 AM | Report abuse

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