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Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 09/10/2009

Learn How Scientists Predict Climate Change

By Ann Posegate

Wx and the City

Next week, the Marian Koshland Science Museum of the National Academy of Sciences, in partnership with the National Environmental Education Foundation, is hosting a lecture on the "Emerging Science of Climate Change."

Dr. Michael Winton, an oceanographer at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) of the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) and Dr. Jay Gulledge, Senior Scientist at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change will discuss how scientists predict future climate change, whether new modeling systems and ever faster computers impact their understanding of climate change, how they use information from climate change models in their research, and how this information can be used today to make decisions.

The event takes place at 6:30 pm on Thursday, September 17, 2009, at the Koshland Science Museum (directions). The cost is $7 general admission ($5 for students) and light refreshments will be provided.

To learn more and RSVP, visit www.koshland-science-museum.org.

By Ann Posegate  | September 10, 2009; 10:00 AM ET
Categories:  Climate Change, Posegate, Wx and the City  
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Next: A Skeptical Take on Global Warming

Comments

Ann, thanks for posting what I'm sure will be an excellent learning and entertaining experience in climate science - and one presented in within an objective, unbiased framework.

Another program of interest is Earth Science Week 2009; “Understanding Climate”. It's a participatory online set of activities the week of October 17 designed to promote understanding of Earth's climate.

For additional information visit http://www.earthsciweek.org/

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | September 10, 2009 10:35 AM | Report abuse

Correction: Earths Science Week runs from Oct 11-17

Posted by: SteveT-CapitalWeatherGang | September 10, 2009 10:39 AM | Report abuse

Will Mojib Latif be there? He is a world renowned climate scientist and a UN IPCC scientist/author. He has had some interesting things to say about climate models and predicting climate change.

--begin quote--
Forecasts of climate change are about to go seriously out of kilter. One of the world's top climate modellers said Thursday we could be about to enter one or even two decades during which temperatures cool.

"People will say this is global warming disappearing," he told more than 1500 of the world's top climate scientists gathering in Geneva at the UN's World Climate Conference.

"I am not one of the sceptics," insisted Mojib Latif of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University, Germany. "However, we have to ask the nasty questions ourselves or other people will do it."

Few climate scientists go as far as Latif, an author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. But more and more agree that the short-term prognosis for climate change is much less certain than once thought.

...

Latif predicted that in the next few years a natural cooling trend would dominate over warming caused by humans. The cooling would be down to cyclical changes to ocean currents and temperatures in the North Atlantic, a feature known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

Breaking with climate-change orthodoxy, he said NAO cycles were probably responsible for some of the strong global warming seen in the past three decades. "But how much? The jury is still out," he told the conference. The NAO is now moving into a colder phase.

Latif said NAO cycles also explained the recent recovery of the Sahel region of Africa from the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s. James Murphy, head of climate prediction at the Met Office, agreed and linked the NAO to Indian monsoons, Atlantic hurricanes and sea ice in the Arctic. "The oceans are key to decadal natural variability," he said.
--end quote--

Or will this be one of those lectures where they will pretend there is no legitimate dissent?

Mr. Q.

Posted by: Mr_Q | September 10, 2009 11:10 AM | Report abuse

A cooler NAO cycle could lead to bigger and better snowstorms around here. We have been getting very little snow recently and I suspect the North Atlantic Oscillation hasn't been "right" to bring us the "good" storms.

The NAO needs to be "negative" with nice blocking Arctic high pressure to our north and northeast to give us the "juiciest" snowstorms. That setup evidently has not been happening in recent winters around here.

BTW last winter was the first I've known around here with little or no snow despite the abundance of snow flurries all winter. Usually flurries around here presage big snowstorms as the winter deepens.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | September 10, 2009 12:25 PM | Report abuse

Mr. Q: Let me refer you to a piece here at CWG on Latif's paper and how it was misinterpreted. He based his talk on this paper. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/freedman_global_warming_has_no.html

Posted by: Andrew-CapitalWeatherGang | September 10, 2009 6:16 PM | Report abuse

Mr. Freedman, I linked to and quoted an article written by Fred Pearce, in Geneva, Switzerland, on September 4th, 2009. He was quoting what Mojib Latif said the night before, September 3rd, 2009.

And you casually link to a column you wrote back in May 2008 which you think is somehow relevant. How your prior column is relevant, I'm not exactly sure. Are you saying that Mojib Latif has misinterpreted HIS OWN PAPER, and therefore we should not listen to his current comments???? Is that it?

On September 3rd, 2009 Mojib Latif said -

1. we could be about to enter one or even two decades during which temperatures cool. (which means that marcusmarcus will rethink his believe in AGW - good luck selling AGW then)

2. Breaking with climate-change orthodoxy, he said NAO cycles were probably responsible for some of the strong global warming seen in the past three decades. "But how much? The jury is still out"

3. Latif said NAO cycles also explained the recent recovery of the Sahel region of Africa from the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s.

Quick Mr. Freedman; call Mojib Latif and tell him he has misinterpreted his own work! You have proof! Point him to your May 2008 column. I'll pay for that phone call. :)

Was Tim Stockdale of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, UK misinterpreting Mojib Latif's paper when he said, "Model biases are also still a serious problem. We have a long way to go to get them right. They are hurting our forecasts"

Better call Tim Stockdale too. I'll pay for that phone call as well. But try to keep the phone calls under 5 minutes each.

I like how Fred Pearce closed out his piece, "The world may badly want reliable forecasts of future climate. But such predictions are proving as elusive as the perfect weather forecast."

But then again, perhaps he too is misinterpreting Mojib Latif's paper. ;)

Mr. Q.

Posted by: Mr_Q | September 11, 2009 12:02 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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