PM Update: Slow-Moving Storm Proves Tricky
Probably damp and cool Friday, unless we see some sun
Tricky forecasting of recent did not get easier today and we saw more sunshine than expected once again. Rain? It has mostly stayed east of the area today, but a band of more widespread activity is trying to march toward us from the east and may make it this evening or overnight. Highs ranging from near 70 to the mid-70s will only slowly fall back this evening, except in areas where rainfall drags temperatures down quicker. Occasionally gusty breezes from the northeast and north will continue into the night.
Through Tonight: Rain chances tick up this evening and overnight as the slow-moving storm off the coast moves closer. It's still not a given that we see much rain, though some spots -- especially east -- could. Lows mostly range from the mid-50s to around 60. Breezes from the north continue, with some gusts to 20 mph or higher.
Tomorrow (Friday): It's fitting we end the work week with another forecast that's not simple. Do we see breaks of sun like the last two days or are we socked in with clouds and rain showers? I'm leaning toward the latter, but confidence is not high. As recently, best odds of widespread appreciable precipitation should be over eastern and northern parts of the area, and there should be a sharp cutoff with some places south and west not getting much at all. If clouds and rain win out we should see highs rise to around 70. Extra sunshine could push us well into the 70s.
El Nino: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center announced today that El Nino is likely to strengthen into the upcoming winter, probably becoming moderate. Currently weak and still developing, the oceanic phenomenon can contribute to snowy (often weak or moderate Nino) or very non-snowy (strong Nino) winters in these parts. Impacts on the U.S. typically do not begin to show up till late fall, but as we've noted here before, El Nino is believed to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity due to increased wind shear across parts of the basin.
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