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Grading Our 2009 Summer Outlook
* Weekend Rain... When? Full Forecast | NatCast *
Even though it still felt very warm and humid this week as we commenced astronomical autumn, there is no delaying the inevitable changing of the seasons. Summer by any measure is officially over and before we know it, we'll be breaking out our fall warm-up jackets. And so, the time is right to recap our annual summer outlook.
Keep reading to see how we did...
THE NUMBERS
Overall Temperatures:
CWG Prediction: Average to 1 degree above average
Actual: -0.2 degrees
Overall Precipitation:
CWG Precipitation Prediction: Slightly above average
Actual: Slightly below average
90-Degree Days:
CWG 90-degree days for June/July/August: 35
Actual: 21
Monthly Temperatures:
June
CWG Prediction: 1 degree above average
Actual: -0.8 degrees
July
CWG Prediction: 1 degree above average
Actual: -2.3 degrees
August
CWG Prediction: Average
Actual: +2.4 degrees
ANALYSIS
While we did fare well with the most important metric, our forecast of the overall seasonal temperature average (where we just missed being inside our 1 degree range), we did not do so well with some other measures:
*We were not close on any of the monthly temperature predictions.
*We were on the wrong side of average on summer precipitation, though not by much.
*Our prediction of slightly above normal 90-degree days fell well short.
We did get some things right, however:
*We correctly identified June as the wettest month.
*We were right about heat waves being short-lived.
*Importantly, we were correct in our prediction that Summer 2009 would be the coolest since 2004.
Based on all of the above, I would grade the outlook a C/C+. Our decent call on overall summer temperatures was mitigated by some bad misses on the details.
Stay tuned for our annual winter outlook in October.
By
Matt Ross
| September 25, 2009; 11:00 AM ET
Categories:
Local Climate, Recaps
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Posted by: MMCarhelp | September 25, 2009 12:15 PM | Report abuse
have you made a winter, specifically snow, forcast yet?
Posted by: walter-in-fallschurch | September 25, 2009 12:26 PM | Report abuse
This was definitely the mildest summer of my adult lifetime. I wonder if we will see its like again.
Posted by: kevinwparker | September 25, 2009 2:25 PM | Report abuse
We'll rock the winter forecast. oh yes yes yes! :)
Posted by: Camden-CapitalWeatherGang | September 25, 2009 9:47 PM | Report abuse
The comments to this entry are closed.
No one could have foreseen that long, remarkable stretch of well-below-normal temps in June and early July....in fact, we had dew points, at one point, in the 30's....more indicative of March than July. Considering the fluke that period was, CWG's forecast, overall, was not that bad. The last time I can remember a stretch like we had in June and early July was way back in 1976, when we had a big trof over the east and a long succession of Canadian fronts. That summer was also memorable for the fact it had clear, blue skies in a period when pollution controls had not yet really taken hold here, and most summers, back then, had brownish, polluted air.