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Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 10/14/2009

Forecast: First the Chill, Then the Chilly Rain

By Dan Stillman

Much cooler today; colder with rain likely tomorrow

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Today: Mostly cloudy. Chance of an isolated p.m. shower. Mid-50s. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Increasing chance of showers. 40s. | Tomorrow: Periods of rain. Increasing winds. 40s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


Say buh-bye to the 60s and 70s, at least for a while. Temperatures are on their way down -- and fast. From highs in the low 70s yesterday, to only the 50s today and possibly the 40s tomorrow. Depending on the track of a coastal storm we could very well be in for a raw and rainy Thursday, and cool temperatures and rain chances could linger right on into the weekend. Wondering how we can go from the 80s this past Friday to this?... Well, it's called October.

Temperatures: Current area temperatures. Powered by Weather Bonk. Map by Google. Hover over and click icons for more info. Click and hold on map to pan. Refresh page to update. See map bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Wednesday): Early-morning temperatures in the 40s to near 50 won't be all that cold for mid-October. Problem is, mostly cloudy skies and a light breeze from the northeast should keep highs to the mid-50s, a good 10-15 degrees or so below normal. Can't rule out an isolated shower during the afternoon or toward evening. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: We'll stay mostly cloudy with the chance of an isolated shower or two during the evening. Later, mainly after midnight, the chance of isolated to scattered showers increases, especially from the District toward points south and west, as a coastal storm gets organized. Lows mostly in the 40s. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend....

Tomorrow (Thursday): A storm system riding up the coast from the south is likely to bring overcast skies and periods of chilly rain -- highs may not escape the 40s (um, yeah, same as Wednesday night's lows) -- along with afternoon winds around 10-20 mph. Some uncertainty remains in the storm's exact timing and track, and thus the onset, frequency and intensity of the rain. The Eastern Shore could get battered with the heaviest rain and strongest winds. Confidence: Low-Medium

Tomorrow Night: The storm starts to pull away to the east, but probably slow enough to keep periods of rain going with temperatures mostly steady in the 40s, some upper 30s in the burbs. Confidence: Low-Medium


The main storm moves well out to sea on Friday, but another system lagging behind it means continued cloudy skies and a decent chance (around 60%) of occasional showers with highs in the 40s to near 50. Confidence: Low-Medium

The trailing system could develop into a mini-coastal storm, which would mean more rain on Friday night. Lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Sounds cold, but believe it or not that would only be a few degrees below normal for this week in October. Confidence: Low

Any remaining rain should exit to the northeast during the day Saturday, so the best bet for dry conditions would be in the afternoon and evening. But a consistent breeze from the north/northwest and a fair amount of clouds keep things cool with highs in the upper 40s to mid-50s. Confidence: Medium

Yet another coastal system could threaten more rain for Sunday if it doesn't track too far off the coast. But that's four days and three storm systems away. Needless to say, forecast confidence is not high. Highs again in the upper 40s to mid-50s. Confidence: Low

By Dan Stillman  | October 14, 2009; 10:30 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Record Cold Exposes Climate Misconceptions


On the Blue Ridge in VA (1900 ft) this morning we were down to 37.8F. WTOP mentioned western Maryland could see some snow mixing in this week.

Posted by: spgass1 | October 14, 2009 9:47 AM | Report abuse

Time? I told people we'd get to parking lot at like 6:30-6:45

Posted by: rockotodd | October 14, 2009 11:06 AM | Report abuse

Thanks for your link to Weather Bonk. I've noticed that it has lost all of its in-town reporting locations and now only has NWS and Weather Channel sites across the region. Any idea of why the cutback?

Posted by: lhaller | October 14, 2009 11:57 AM | Report abuse


Thanks for the comment, and good eye. I'm told that Weatherbug sites were recently removed from the Weather Bonk maps. I'm also told that Weather Bonk is working on adding some data points in the DC metro area -- which we have urged them to do -- but don't have a timeline.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | October 14, 2009 12:28 PM | Report abuse

It will be interesting to see how much of "Much-Needed-Rain's" multi-day raw, windy, rainy spell will mess up my plans for the rest of this week. Already I have to lug a book or two to the Arlington County Library tomorrow afternoon, or risk some stiff overdue fines.

It's bad enough that "MRN" is drawing this rawness out to cover the ENTIRE weekend and possibly into Monday. In addition I suspect that "MRN" is part of the right-wing gang scheming to elect Bob McDonnell and widen I-66; please see my post in the climate article on October cold. In all fairness, though, I can't confirm that Senator Deeds has disawowed this I-66 expansion scheme himself. What's sure IMO is that I want Arlington County's trail system protected forever from these obsolete highway-expansion schemes. ouldn't it be nice if I-66 were to be closed and converted into an Arlington-to-Front Royal bike trail?

Posted by: Bombo47jea | October 14, 2009 1:06 PM | Report abuse

Wow, no soccer specific weather cast! Kaahhhnnnnn!

Don't think I didn't see this....

Before 6:30...

Posted by: JkR- | October 14, 2009 2:38 PM | Report abuse

When does your winter forecast come out this year?

Posted by: PeterBethesda | October 14, 2009 3:23 PM | Report abuse


Good question... probably toward the end of the month.

Posted by: Dan-CapitalWeatherGang | October 14, 2009 3:32 PM | Report abuse

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