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Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 10/15/2009

Forecast: Overcast, Rainy & Raw Through Weekend

By Josh Larson

Coastal storm brings near-record cold, copious rain

* Record Cold Climate Misconceptions | October is Great (Usually) *
* Where's the Rain? Radar, Temps & More: Weather Wall *
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Today: Overcast, breezy & rainy. 46-50. | Tonight: Overcast, breezy & rainy. 40-45. Tomorrow: Overcast & rainy. 46-50. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


A area of coastal low pressure coupled with an atmospheric pattern more akin to winter than fall will collude to bring near-record cold, relentless cloud cover and periods of light to moderate rain today straight through the weekend (perhaps 2-3" worth). Now would be the time to make sure your umbrellas, galoshes, heavy clothing/coats, etc. are in tip-top shape. We may not experience any semblance of sunshine or dry weather again until Monday.

Today (Thursday): If you ask me, today is a perfect day for soup or beverages like hot chocolate or tea. Expect thick overcast skies with periods of light to moderate rain. Temperatures will struggle to reach the record low high of 49 set all the way back in 1876!! A northeasterly breeze of 10-15 mph will make it feel even more unpleasant. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: We hold onto overcast skies with periods of mainly light rain, and continued breezy north to northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph tonight. Temperatures will slowly drop into the low 40s in most areas -- but it will likely feel like it's in the 30s. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the cold & damp forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Friday): Xerox the conditions we have today and you'll end up with tomorrow's forecast: cloudy skies, near-record cold and periods of rain will persist through the day. Winds from the north of up to 10 mph will again make it feel even chillier than what the thermometer reads. Highs will be limited to the mid-to-upper 40s once again. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night:Just my two cents, but perhaps you'll want to stay under the blankets watching a movie Friday night instead of venturing out into the continued rainy, raw weather. Periods of seemingly relentless rain will persist with very chilly overnight lows slowly dropping to the upper 30s to low 40s. Confidence: Medium


I'm sorry to say that at this point you can probably guess what type of weather to expect on Saturday. Ovecast? Check. Rain? Check. Near-record cold? Check. There may very well be some breaks in the precipitation during the day, but with highs still not making it out of the 40s, I'm not sure how much that will really matter. Overnight lows, with the continued likelihood of more rain, will drop to the low 40s. Snow flakes are possible in the mountains. Confidence: Medium

Please don't shoot the messenger, but yet again hold on to mostly cloudy skies and around a 60% chance for periods of rain on Sunday. Like Saturday, there may well be some breaks in the precipitation, especially towards the second half of the day, but with thoroughly water-logged grass and highs once again unlikely to top 50, this is probably not much of a consolation. For the first time since today, our chance for rain on Sunday night drops to below 50%, and it will likely be scattered in nature. Overnight lows drop to the low-to-mid 40s. Confidence: Low-Medium

The forecast for Monday is a low confidence one at this point, as it's unclear whether we see partly sunny and dry conditions or continued mostly cloudy skies with a chance for yet more rain -- likely of the scattered or showery nature. I'm optimistic that some sunshine (and largely dry conditions) are a decent bet. Also, temperatures should rebound to well into the 50s for highs, with overnight lows in the 40s. Confidence: Low

By Josh Larson  | October 15, 2009; 10:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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When is the CapX winter weather forecast coming? I have a good feeling that we are going to get at least 1.5x-2x our normal snowfall totals. Totally unsientific,of course but a gut feeling nonetheless.

Posted by: snowlover | October 15, 2009 9:28 AM | Report abuse

I'm going to be out in Orkney Springs (near Bryce Mountain) this weekend and the NWS is calling for a chance of snow on Friday night. Is that really a possibility?

Posted by: ana_b | October 15, 2009 9:40 AM | Report abuse

Looks like the surf is going to be going off in OC this weekend! Overhead and fairly clean Saturday afternoon, and the water temp is still in the mid-60s. Need a wetsuit for the air temp though.

Wonder if anyone I know is heading down there?

Posted by: wiredog | October 15, 2009 10:02 AM | Report abuse


Winter outlook will be released in the last week of October


Snow is a possibility above 2,000 feet Friday night, and above 1,000 feet (and even a little lower) Saturday night if precip continues.

Posted by: Jason-CapitalWeatherGang | October 15, 2009 10:36 AM | Report abuse

If we don't make it above the current 49 degree reading at DCA the rest of the day (through 11:59pm), we will have tied the record low high for the day set back in 1876!

Posted by: Josh-CapitalWeatherGang | October 15, 2009 1:46 PM | Report abuse

There are four low pressure systems south of us on the map.

Will they each affect our area?

Can you comment on this unusual feature?

Posted by: jaybird926 | October 15, 2009 2:26 PM | Report abuse

Winter outlook issued today: El NiƱo rules.

Posted by: CapitalClimate | October 15, 2009 2:26 PM | Report abuse

Not to get too picky, and it probably won't affect the result, Josh, but daily records are kept on standard time, so the record would have to hold through 12:59 am to maintain the tie. The next 2 days are much more vulnerable, with records of 51 and 54 respectively, the latter being the highest from here on out to the rest of the year. The monthly record for lo-max is 40 on the 23rd.

Posted by: CapitalClimate | October 15, 2009 4:24 PM | Report abuse

Record tie is busted:

MAXIMUM         50    341 PM
(preliminary daily summary)

Posted by: CapitalClimate | October 15, 2009 5:46 PM | Report abuse

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