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Posted at 2:30 PM ET, 10/24/2009

Forecast: Some Saturday showers, Sunday sun

By Jason Samenow

Very mild conditions today, t-storm possible

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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Chance of showers (50%), t-storm. Breezy and warm. 74-78. | Tonight: Any showers ending, gradual clearing. 41-46. | Tomorrow: Mostly sunny. 63-67. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Remember this time last weekend? Highs were struggling to make it to 45 and the rain was relentless. So today's 70s are a vast improvement, even if we have to dodge scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. We could even have a little sunshine at times. And if we don't, we'll have a whole lot of it tomorrow...


Radar: Latest regional radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Saturday): A cool front rolls through today, triggering a chance of showers. The best chance of showers will be this afternoon, with the highest chances north and east of I-95 (70% chance there, 50% chance elsewhere). Where it does rain, I can't rule out some thunder, strong winds, and briefly heavy downpours. Breaks in the clouds are possible and when you couple that with strong southerly winds ahead of the front, the result will be rather mild temperatures... reaching well into the 70s. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: After a 20% chance of showers this evening, we gradually clear out. Winds will shift around to out of the northwest, tapping drier air. Lows will range from the low-to-mid 40s. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast for tomorrow and into early next week. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Tomorrow (Sunday): Been waiting to pick apples or go to the pumpkin patch? Today is your day. Not to mention the weather will be great for the Marine Corps Marathon. The sunshine will warm morning lows in the 40s to the mid-60s by mid-afternoon. A light wind from the north will blow around 10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: Clear and seasonably cool. The cold spots will bottom out in the mid-30s with low 40s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Monday will be just like Sunday, with sunshine and mid-60s. But Monday night clouds increase with a 30% chance of rain by morning, and lows near 50. Confidence: Medium-High

A decent (60%) chance of rain Tuesday as low pressure develops to our south and moves up the coast. Overcast skies will hold temperatures in the 50s to near 60. Confidence: Medium

By Jason Samenow  | October 24, 2009; 2:30 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: Forecast: Sunday and Monday sunshine

Comments

Really? There's a 70% chance of rain this morning? It looks like the rain is moving to the north, well west of us.

Posted by: KEBV | October 24, 2009 7:59 AM | Report abuse

@KEBV

You're right. I've made some mods to the forecast. A lot of the rain this morning will be well west. Showers and storms are likely to redevelop ahead of the front this afternoon...by that time, areas of east of town will stand the best chance of getting wet.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | October 24, 2009 8:30 AM | Report abuse

Redskins game is Monday this week, not that it really matters though...

Posted by: steske | October 24, 2009 8:35 AM | Report abuse

@steske

Good point. Fixed.

Posted by: CapitalWeatherGang | October 24, 2009 8:41 AM | Report abuse

You guys may (?) need to bump up the thunderstorm possibilities a little. NWS/SPC has much of the Eastern Mid-Atlantic in a potential severe thunderstorm area later today, with even some isolated tornadoes east of here. The persistant cloud cover will limit low-level instability, but there are plenty of dynamics aloft, a strong SW flow at the surface, and wind shear aloft.

Posted by: MMCarhelp | October 24, 2009 11:28 AM | Report abuse

Saw the sun peaking through around 1 pm but it does look like a line of rain is coming in.

Posted by: jaybird926 | October 24, 2009 1:30 PM | Report abuse

Evidence of heavy rain/thunderstorms to the SW on radar. Not sure of current lightning data.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | October 24, 2009 1:36 PM | Report abuse

It's pouring here in Sterling, no thunder, though, and a moist 70.7 degrees outside.

Posted by: Sterlingva | October 24, 2009 1:39 PM | Report abuse

Update: Vaisala records recent ligthtning to our west.

Posted by: Bombo47jea | October 24, 2009 1:40 PM | Report abuse

Brief rolls of thunder about 25-30 mins ago ... rained buckets several times. We've had brief, but heavy downpours since around noon in
New Baltimore, Fauquier Co.

Posted by: weathergrrl | October 24, 2009 2:18 PM | Report abuse

Looks like a possible bow echo over Prince William County at 2:30 PM, moving NE....but no severe thunderstorm warnings yet.

The upper-wind shear profile today, BTW, is very impressive, as are surface dew points and the strong southerly flow.

Posted by: MMCarhelp | October 24, 2009 2:28 PM | Report abuse

Oops.....sorry. I meant Fauquier County, not Prince William.

Posted by: MMCarhelp | October 24, 2009 2:40 PM | Report abuse

We had a five hours of rain in NW Montgomery. Sometimes heavy and sometimes not so heavy. Total for the day was .87 inches.

Posted by: MKadyman | October 24, 2009 10:04 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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