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Posted at 4:00 PM ET, 10/16/2009

PM Update: Mostly Drizzle Now, More Rain Later

By Ian Livingston

Second storm to form; Saturday night snowflakes N&W?

* Redskins Forecast | How Do We Stop This Rain? | Harvest Moon *
* Outside Now? Radar, Temps, Clouds & More: Weather Wall *

While we have not seen much more than a steady drizzle and some showers since yesterday afternoon, today proved to be another raw one with a distinct wintry feel across the area. Temperatures only made it up into the mid-40s most spots for highs, only a few degrees above this morning's lows. Now we wait for a second coastal storm to begin forming and throw us some more rain. We could even be talking a few early-season snowflakes for some by the time it's all done.


Radar: Latest regional radar loop shows movement of precipitation over past two hours. Powered by HAMweather. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Through Tonight: We stay cloudy, cold and drizzly with a few passing showers through the evening before chances for steadier rain increase overnight. Lows should settle to the upper 30s and near 40 as overnight breezes pick up a bit from the north.

Tomorrow (Saturday): More raw and more rain is on tap Saturday. The band that sets up overnight should persist through the day as another coastal storm develops and slowly moves by. There's some uncertainty where the juiciest precipitation sets up. Could be right over the area or just to the northeast. Either way, we'll definitely see another wet one, possibly quite so. Highs again struggle toward the mid-40s.

As we drift into the evening and overnight period, some snow may mix in for the north and west suburbs. It should be non-accumulating outside elevated areas well north and west of the area which could see a few inches, but we will continue to watch as the situation evolves.

See Camden Walker's full forecast through the beginning of next week. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

NOAA Winter Outlook: On Wednesday, I mentioned AccuWeather's cold and snowy forecast. Yesterday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its winter outlook. It indicates that cold air should be around much of the winter while precipitation is near normal. Interestingly, NOAA disagrees with AccuWeather's call for a fading El Nino. NOAA predicts El Nino will strengthen and persist into winter rather than peaking early and falling off during the season. NOAA also notes El Nino is not the only factor that will influence winter weather.

By Ian Livingston  | October 16, 2009; 4:00 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: UnitedCast: Cold, Wet, and Foul

Comments

In the Blue Ridge Mtns, our high today was 37.9F. Low last night was 34.7. Currently foggy and 36.7. We've picked up about 1.25" of rain since this cold and rainy spell began. Needless to say, the precipitation is much needed.

I haven't seen any flakes yet, although I was talking to someone today who said he saw some flakes falling along with the rain in Chester Gap yesterday. The new HPC winter weather map run looks a little less promising than the previous one which at least showed the 10% 4" band coming into Virginia west of I-81.

Posted by: spgass1 | October 16, 2009 4:43 PM | Report abuse

Current temp. in Burke: 43.9 and cloudy.

Henry Margusity, Joe Bastardi, and all the other meteorologists at Accuweather are getting the best October snowstorm of their lives. They seem to have gotten the bull's eye of this storm's snow.

Here are some videos showing the meteorologists enjoying themselves in this rare, historical snow event at State College:

http://www.facebook.com/AccuWeather#/AccuWeather?v=app_2392950137

Posted by: Yellowboy | October 16, 2009 5:35 PM | Report abuse

Who is more reliable, NOAA or AccuWeather?

How can they both look at the same data and draw a different conclusion?

Posted by: jaybird926 | October 16, 2009 6:40 PM | Report abuse

It is WAY too EARLY in the season for me to be cruising the posts for snow updates :)

quick question is there any coorelation between early snows and more active winter seasons?

Posted by: jenniel73 | October 16, 2009 7:17 PM | Report abuse

Reposted:

Please read the discussion here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

Nowhere does it say that "EL NINO WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE STRENGTH THROUGH THE WINTER." If you can find that sentence, I'll seek you out and give you $10. ALL it says is that El Nino will strengthen, that the PEAK strength will most likely be moderate (i.e. historically in the Nov-Dec-Jan season) and that EL NINO will last through the winter. Believe me when I say that NOAA is quite aware of the seasonality of El Nino. Also be aware that Accuweather is splitting hairs and trying to perpetuate a falsehood that surprisingly got traction in this most respectable blog.

Posted by: anonymous678 | October 17, 2009 8:57 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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